Afternoon summary
- Conservative plans to end the pensions triple lock and means test the winter fuel allowance are a “savage attack on vulnerable pensioners”, John McDonnell has said, as he seeks to position Labour as the party representing older voters.
- The Tories have been accused of being “utter hypocrites” after it emerged that they want to cut winter fuel payments for pensioners in England but not in Scotland. On a trip to Edinburgh, Theresa May defended plans to protect winter fuel allowance for all Scottish pensioners while cutting it for many south of the border. She said:
Well, we have devolution in the United Kingdom and, as a government, we have given the Scottish government significant powers in relation to welfare, and they make a number of decisions about various welfare benefits in Scotland.
The decision we have made about winter fuel payments is that we will continue to ensure that the least well-off pensioners are supported but there is a principle of fairness.
Scottish Tories are saying pensioners in Scotland should be exempt from the UK cuts, because the cold weather in the country increases the need for winter fuel payments (see 9.50am). Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Conservative leader, said:
We’ve made a different choice in Scotland in our Scottish manifesto today. We believe there shouldn’t be means testing for the winter fuel payment.
But Labour and the Lib Dems said the fact that Scottish Tories could not support the policy showed it was in trouble. Andrew Gwynne, Labour’s elections coordinator, said:
When the Scottish Tory leader comes out against her own party’s attack on pensioner incomes, I think it’s fair to say the policy is starting to unravel.
The Tory attack on pensioners’ winter fuel allowance is unfair and outrageous, and lays bare the threat they pose to pensioners’ security and living standards.
And the Lib Dem leader, Tim Farron, said:
The Tories are utter hypocrites. How can they take cash off English pensioners and then give it to Scottish pensioners? It looks like a cheap election bung and it won’t wash.
- May has said she wants Scotland to play a bigger part in UK life. In a speech in Edinburgh stressing her commitment to the union, she said previous governments had been inclined to adopt a “devolve and forget” approach to Scotland (see 1pm).
- Tory plans for a 1% cap on public sector pay rises over the next two years could exacerbate recruitment problems, the Institute for Fiscal Studies has said (see 2.07pm).
- Paul Nuttall, the Ukip leader, has dismissed an Ipsos Mori poll yesterday showing Ukip on just 2%, behind the Greens. He told Sky News:
Ignore it, it’s Ipsos Mori. They always have us down in a way which is just unbelievable. They’re completely wrong. They’ve been wrong for five years. They’ve always got Ukip’s figures wrong, time and time again.
Even when we were on 20%, Ipsos Mori would have us on 10%, so I’m not worried about that at all. There was another YouGov poll yesterday which had us on 6%. That’s roughly where I believe we are.
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The EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, has pencilled in 19 June for the first formal day of talks with Britain about its withdrawal from the EU, in what are being billed as the most important negotiations in the country’s history.
That’s all from me for today.
Thanks for the comments.
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Angus Robertson, the SNP’s deputy leader, said Theresa May’s speech at the launch of the Scottish Conservative manifesto today amounted to a “get back in your box” message. He said:
Theresa May flew into Edinburgh today to deliver one simple message to the people of Scotland – get back in your box.
This carbon copy manifesto confirms beyond doubt that Tory MPs from Scotland will simply rubber-stamp Theresa May’s plans and endorse the damage she is determined to do to households and our economy.
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The Creative Industries Federation, which represents those working in arts and the creative industries, has announced that it has cancelled an election event planned with Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, and Tom Watson, the deputy leader and shadow culture secretary, because members were not going to get enough time to ask questions.
The federation set up election events with all the main parties, starting with a Tory one this week, in which Matt Hancock, the culture minister, took questions for nearly an hour. But, in a press statement, it said it had cancelled the Labour event planned for Monday in Hull because the party would not agree enough time for questions. It said:
As Labour informed us that they were no longer able to devote a similar amount of time to questioning as the other parties have agreed to, we invited them to reconsider. When we could not agree, we had no choice but to pull out of the event.
The federation – the national organisation for all the UK’s creative industries, cultural education and arts – has a track record for independence and fearlessness. We are, however, non-partisan. We cannot provide a backdrop for campaign events which do not offer the opportunity for proper scrutiny.
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Ruth Davidson has suggested the Tories will never consent to a second Scottish independence referendum until a “gold standard” test of unanimous party backing and support from a very large majority of Scottish voters has been met.
The Scottish Tory leader, speaking to reporters after Theresa May launched the Scottish Conservative manifesto in Edinburgh, defended the manifesto’s stance that no referendum would be agreed without “public consent” and only once the Brexit process was complete.
Nicola Sturgeon, the first minister and leader of the Scottish National party, wants a vote by spring 2019. Davidson and May have implied it would not be until the early 2020s – the timescale that they claim Brexit and new powers for Scotland will need to bed in.
Asked to define public consent by a Daily Mail reporter, May sidestepped the question, arguing only that Brexit was the issue that mattered: “Talking about a second independence referendum right now doesn’t strengthen our hand, it weakens our hand.”
Pressed on this after May’s speech, Davidson said:
The best example we have is back in 2011-12, where we had every member of the Scottish parliament voting for it because we recognised that was a mandate for it to happen. We had 92% support across the country [from opinion polls].
There was public and parliamentary-stroke-political consent there. There was agreement across everyone that this should happen. And that was the gold standard … [I] would be happy to never have a referendum; I’m a unionist and I don’t want one. I have to say we need something a lot more like what we had in 2011-12 before I think the UK government should give its consent.
I’m saying that’s the gold standard ... We have seen time and time again there is no public consent for it; people don’t want [to be] dragged back there.
Davidson’s stance relies heavily on opinion polls showing that less than 45% of Scottish voters want a second independence vote until after Brexit, but it is risky. The same polls suggest support will rise once the Brexit deal is signed. The SNP will be working very hard to maximise and highlight every problem with the Brexit talks as it bids to increase public backing for a vote.
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The Ukip leader, Paul Nuttall, has cancelled a day of campaigning in Essex after the party battle bus had a wing mirror knocked off, the Press Association reports:
Nuttall was set to join party activists for two campaign events in the county, where the party had its only MP elected in Clacton.
But the party’s distinctive purple battle bus was clipped by a lorry in a coach park overnight, taking a wing mirror off and grounding the Ukip campaign for a day while the bus gets fixed.
A party spokesman said the events would be rescheduled soon.
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The Institute for Fiscal Studies has published a briefing paper on the Conservatives’ plans to make the elderly pay more towards the cost of social care in their own home. It says that between 12% and 17% of people in their 70s eligible for state support for care at home under the current system would not be eligible under the proposed changes.
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Ed Miliband says Tory manifesto shows 'nasty party is back'
Ed Miliband, the former Labour leader, has said that the publication of the Conservative manifesto shows that “the nasty party is well and truly back”. Speaking while campaigning for Labour in Morley and Outwood (Ed Balls’ old seat, won by the Tories in 2015 with a majority of 422), he said:
The Tory manifesto has unravelled in the last 24 hours in a way that I can’t remember manifestos unravelling. The truth is, there’s no costings, no clarity, no detail, but also this facade that somehow it’s a different type of Tory party. I think the facade has actually been shattered apart by what they’re doing to older people.
The Tories have tried to say as little as possible in this campaign. Now they’ve tried to say what their plans are, I think people are looking at it and not liking it at all.
Speaking to some Alzheimer’s Society campaigners he met on a walkabout, Miliband went on:
I think the mask has slipped on the Conservative party with the publication of their manifesto.
I think the nasty party is well and truly back and, if you look at them taking the winter fuel allowance away from 10 million pensioners, ending the triple lock, a tax on people who get dementia, I actually think that lots and lots of people are taking a second look at what the Tories are actually offering in this campaign and contrasting it to Labour: the investment in health and education and building a fairer society, guaranteeing pensioners the winter fuel allowance and the other benefits, including the triple lock … I think it’s all to play for in this campaign.
Great to be campaigning for @MorleyNeil. Thanks @Ed_Miliband for coming to Morley & meeting @LeedsLabourClub pic.twitter.com/FfWXhobdCW
— Steven Atkins (@StevenAtkinsUK) May 19, 2017
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Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA
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According to the Spectator’s Isabel Hardman, Labour HQ is working on the assumption that the party will be left with just 140 seats after the election. Here’s an extract from her blog.
I understand from two very good sources that this working assumption developed by Patrick Heneghan, the party’s elections director, is based on the party’s private data. This could mean that 89 sitting Labour MPs lose their seats – and means the party considers previously safe constituencies to be at risk.
That must be one of the gloomiest forecasts around. But other predictions have not been a lot more encouraging for Labour.
The Elections Etc blog, run by the academic Steve Fisher, has been compiling a list of the various election predictions in the public domain that are underpinned by some sort of methodology: models based on polling (either simple seat projections, or more complex ones, taking into account other factors), results implied by the betting markets, and wisdom-of-the-crowd mass forecasts.
It published a summary of the latest data last week. Here it is.
Of course, they could all be wrong. And these figures do not take into account polls over the past week, which have shown some movement towards Labour. Here is the FT’s latest poll tracker chart (subscription needed).
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London’s mayor, Sadiq Khan, has put out a statement about the Conservative manifesto. He’s calling it – with a certain amount of drama – “a kick in the teeth for London and every single Londoner”.
His objections focus mainly on the idea of a so-called hard Brexit without access to the EU’s single market, which the Labour mayor says will harm the capital. He also dislikes the plan to greatly reduce net migration, saying it will “cause huge damage to our city’s economy”.
Khan is concerned that the manifesto does not mention air quality, a particular health crisis in London, and is critical of the changes to social care, which he sees as particularly affecting Londoners given the city’s higher average property prices.
The mayor’s statement also condemns the lack of a commitment to the Crossrail 2 network, and the plans to move Channel 4 and some civil servant jobs out of London.
These last points might raise an eyebrow among non-London mayors, who regularly complain that the capital sucks up infrastructure investment and jobs. But it is Khan’s role to stick up for his city.
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Corbyn says the Conservatives’ underfunding of education means headteachers are going through the most “unbelievable stress” of having to decide which teachers to sack.
He says he is very proud of the fact the Labour manifesto proposes free school meals.
And there will be no tuition fees for students, he says. It is a huge cost and commitment, but Labour thinks everyone deserves a decent chance, he says.
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Corbyn turns to social care.
It is very important for older people, he says, but it is also there for people with disabilities and learning difficulties.
There are 1 million people who do not get the care to which they are entitled, he says.
When people do not get the care they need, relatives have to step in. And it is almost always women, he says.
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Jeremy Corbyn's speech in Peterborough
Jeremy Corbyn is speaking in Peterborough.
He says winter fuel payments are there for a reason. Some older people die from the cold in the winter, he says.
He says Labour will keep winter fuel payments. They go to everyone, he says. But wealthy pensioners do pay tax on them, he says.
He says the Tories have not explained what they will do to winter fuel payments.
He says Labour is also committed to keeping the triple lock on pensions. No other party has given that commitment, he says.
Jeremy Corbyn arrives in Peterborough to address supporters pic.twitter.com/q4FyjuqkCt
— Andrew Sinclair (@andrewpolitics) May 19, 2017
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IFS says Tory public sector pay restraint saves £9bn but risks damaging services
The Institute for Fiscal Studies has published an analysis looking at what will happen to public sector pay in the next parliament, depending on which party wins.
This is the key graph. It shows average public sector pay (the line at the top) as a proportion of average private sector pay. It is about 11% higher at the moment (because the public sector employs a disproportionate number of professionals) and proportionally it was even higher during the financial crash, when private sector pay fell.
As the red, yellow and blue lines show, public sector pay would be highest under Labour, and lowest under the Conservatives, with the Lib Dems somewhere in between.
The IFS says there are arguments for and against boosting public sector pay. Without pay increases, the public sector will struggle to recruit and services could suffer, it says. But paying staff more leaves less money for other government spending. It says the Labour plans would require the government to be spending £9.2bn more a year on public sector pay by 2020-21 than under the Tory plans, with £2.9bn of that going to the NHS; under the Lib Dems, it would be £5.3bn more, with £1.6bn of that going to the NHS.
Here is an extract from the IFS analysis.
Since 2011, there has been significant pay restraint in the public sector. For a number of years this was achieved without significant recruitment and retention issues, probably because public pay had done so much better than private sector pay during the recession. However, these pressures are emerging now, and could harm the quality of public services. There are significant trade offs in the future setting of public sector pay. Restraining public sector pay compared to the private sector, as proposed by the Conservatives, and – to a lesser extent by the Liberal Democrats –risks exacerbating recruitment, retention and motivation problems and ultimately the quantity and quality of public services provided.
On the other hand, increasing public sector pay results in significantly higher costs to public sector employers compared to the current Conservative government’s plans. The next government could decide to increase departmental spending to account for these higher costs of paying public sector workers. But if it did not provide extra funds, departments would need to make cuts elsewhere – for example by further reducing the number of public sector workers, cuts that may themselves reduce the quality of public services.
Here is the latest feature in our voices and votes series. Reporter Lisa O’Carroll and photographer Murdo MacLeod meet a family in Glasgow East who are set to vote three different ways in the general election.
Sky’s Faisal Islam has been tweeting some more background about winter fuel payments.
Some facts about Winter Fuel Payments: 12.21 million recipients in 8.736 million households ... ie a fair few double recipients
— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) May 19, 2017
Numbers of Winter Fuel Payment recipients are falling by about 200k a year, mainly because of the 2010 raising of the women's retirement age pic.twitter.com/njD4zvbbBw
— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) May 19, 2017
number to focus on re cost is household 8.74 million - "double recipient households" get half each..also down due to women's state pension
— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) May 19, 2017
So 12.2m individual recipients in 8.4m households paying it "only to the least well-off pensioners" logically means several million lose out pic.twitter.com/Rbxj0MhBKE
— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) May 19, 2017
Here are the latest YouGov polling figures for Scotland.
Latest Westminster voting intention (Scotland)
— YouGov (@YouGov) May 19, 2017
SNP 42%
CON 29%
LAB 19%
LD 6%
OTH 3%
(Fieldwork 15-18 May)https://t.co/swhwkVosqj pic.twitter.com/PSrcMNUa5M
Q: Why should English people pay for NHS prescriptions but not Scottish people?
May says that is the whole point of devolution; the Scottish government is able to take its own decisions, she says.
And that’s it. The press conference is over.
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Q: According to the polls you are on course to do well. How many seats would count as a success?
May says she has made it a golden rule never to predict elections. The Conservatives are going out to earn the support of voters, she says.
Q: How would you determine whether or not there is public consent for another independence referendum?
May says the SNP has spoken about how this could be determined. But its threshold (clear support for independence in polls) has not been met.
Q: How much will your programme cost to implement?
It will be fiscally neutral, May says.
She says the SNP has made Scotland the highest taxed part of the UK. That is not the way to encourage jobs, she says.
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May’s Q&A
May is now taking questions.
Q: Why is it fair that an elderly person who gets cancer gets treated for free, and yet someone with dementia has to pay hundreds of thousands of pounds?
May says the government will quadruple the amount of an individual’s assets that will be protected.
She wants to provide dignity for people in old age, but ensure fairness across the generations.
Q: What is your view of Julian Assange? Would you respect an extradition request from the US?
May says extradition requests are dealt with on a case by case basis.
Q: Nicola Sturgeon says if she wins the election, she should have a place in the Brexit talks. Will you allow that?
May says the talks will take place between the UK government and the EU. She will negotiate on behalf of the whole of the UK.
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May says Scottish education under the SNP is a 'scandal'
May says Scottish education under the SNP is a “scandal”.
After a decade of SNP neglect, standards in Scottish education – which were once the envy of the civilised world – have become a national scandal.
The SNP’s tunnel-vision obsession with independence above everything else has meant young people in Scotland are being let down.
Education might be a devolved matter – but I still care very deeply about the life chances of Scottish children.
As prime minister of the United Kingdom, I care just as much about the futures of children from Ayrshire and Angus as I do about the futures of children in Kent or Carlisle.
May says the UK will replace EU structural funds with something better.
But within our United Kingdom today, great disparities exist. So a unionist government will take action to close these gaps and bring our nations and people together.
Our new UK shared prosperity fund will replace ineffective EU structural funds with a new targeted scheme, whose sole purpose will be to reduce the inequalities which exist within and between the four nations of our United Kingdom.
We will take back control of structural funds and use them to strengthen our union and reduce inequalities between our communities.
And she accuses the SNP of wanting to keep Scotland in the common fisheries policy. Tory policy would be better for fishing communities, she says.
And leaving the EU will also enable us to build a better future for our fishermen.
Leaving the European Union means leaving the common fisheries policy.
After Brexit, we will be responsible for the access and management of the waters where we have historically exercised sovereign control.
During this campaign, the nationalists have confirmed that their policy is to take an independent Scotland straight back into full membership of the EU, and straight back into the grip of the common fisheries policy.
So my clear message to voters in Scotland’s coastal communities is this – a vote for me is a vote for a better future for fishing. A vote for the SNP is a vote for the common fisheries policy.
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May says she wants Scotland to play a bigger part in UK life
May says she wants Scotland to play a bigger part in UK life.
As long as I am prime minister, I will never stand by and let our union drift apart.
Too often in the past, UK governments have tended to ‘devolve and forget’.
The government I lead will put that right.
We will make the institutions of our United Kingdom a force for good across the whole UK.
The UK government already employs more civil servants in Scotland than the Scottish government does, and Scotland makes a major contribution to the UK’s defence estate.
But I want us to do more to ensure that all parts of our union, including the great cities of Scotland, can play a bigger role in our shared national life.
I am ambitious for everyone in Britain, and a government for the whole UK will leave no one behind in our efforts to spread opportunity and prosperity.
So we will help the Scottish economy, putting Scottish industries at the centre of our modern industrial strategy.
Scotland is an economic powerhouse within our United Kingdom and I want to do all I can to help it grow and flourish.
And as we develop our new trade policies, we will use the United Kingdom’s muscle to promote Scottish exports more effectively around the world.
We will build on the success of the city deals which the UK government has pioneered across Scotland, to help spread prosperity further.
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May says Jeremy Corbyn cannot be trusted to stand up for the union.
Only the Conservative and Unionist party has the strength and credibility to stand up to the nationalists and defend our United Kingdom.
Jeremy Corbyn is too weak to stand up for our union, even if he wanted to.
According to him, a second independence referendum would be ‘absolutely fine’.
I have been clear that now is not the time for another independence referendum. This is a time to pull together, not apart.
A vote for any other party is a vote to weaken our union, to weaken our negotiating hand in Europe and to put our future prosperity and security at risk.
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May says Britain does best when it is united.
And the lesson of Britain’s history is that we all do best when we tackle challenges together, united.
Theresa May is speaking now. (She is wearing a tartan jacket.)
May says this is a crucial election. It is defined by one question only: who can lead us through Brexit.
(Much of her speech is very similar to yesterday’s, at the UK manifesto launch.)
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Davidson says she has some advice for Nicola Sturgeon.
The prime minister says she is a bloody difficult woman. Well, you ain’t seen nothing yet.
Davidson hands over to Theresa May.
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Davidson says she is appealing to Labour supporters.
Their party has entered a state of civil war, she says. It may find its way back, but not at this election. So in many places the Scottish Conservatives are the only party who can take on the SNP.
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Davidson starts by saying the Scottish Conservatives are opposed to a second independence referendum.
This is what the manifesto says about this.
Ruth Davidson opens with "clear message" to SNP; no to indyref2. Here's what the manifesto says : pic.twitter.com/v99GDyPeP8
— Philip Sim (@BBCPhilipSim) May 19, 2017
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Theresa May speaks at Scottish Conservatives' manifesto launch
Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Conservative leader, opens the manifesto launch.
She praises Theresa May for showing leadership. We all know leadership when we see it, she says. And we see it in May.
Tory sources are saying the 10 million figure is not what they are giving for the number of pensioners who will be affected by the cut to winter fuel payments. That is the figure produced by the Resolution Foundation, which says that if Theresa May implements her manifesto commitment to restrict winter fuel payments to “the least well-off pensioners” by restricting it just to those eligible for pension credit (an assumption, but a reasonable one), then 10 million people would lose out.
The Tories will “consult extensively and develop a new means test”, a source said.
The source also dismissed Labour’s suggestion that pensioners will be affected by the cut this winter. The Tory winter fuel payment cut is not expected to come into force until 2020, the source said.
For the record, this is what the manifesto says on this topic.
Creating a sustainable elderly care system means making decisions about how the rising budget devoted to pensioners is spent, so we will target help where it is needed most. So we will look at Winter Fuel Payments, the largest benefit paid to pensioners, in this context. The benefit is paid regardless of need, giving money to wealthier pensioners when working people on lower incomes do not get similar support. So we will meanstest Winter Fuel Payments, focusing assistance on the least well-off pensioners, who are most at risk of fuel poverty. The money released will be transferred directly to health and social care, helping to provide dignity and care to the most vulnerable pensioners and reassurance to their families. We will maintain all other pensioner benefits, including free bus passes, eye tests, prescriptions and TV licences, for the duration of this parliament.
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The Conservatives have refused to clarify whether or not 10 million pensioners will lose winter fuel payments under their plans. In response to the Labour press conference, where John McDonnell challenged them to reject that figure if it is not true (see 12.02pm), they issued a press statement that does not address the issue at all. Instead a Conservative spokesman said:
Every generation would pay the price if Jeremy Corbyn is put in charge of our economy and Brexit negotiations.
Our long-term plan for elderly care will make the system fairer, better funded and more sustainable – helping to ensure elderly people receive the dignified and high quality care they deserve.
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Farron says Tory 'dementia tax' is 'unspeakably heartless'
Tim Farron, the Lib Dem leader, has described the Tory plans to make the elderly pay more for social care as “unspeakably heartless”. He said the “dementia tax” would see families forced to sell their homes after a loved one dies. The Tory manifesto pledge commits the party to get people to pay for their own care if they have combined savings and property valued at more than £100,000. If they wish to keep their home, payment can be deferred until after they die, when it will be deducted from their estate.
Speaking to the Press Association, he said:
The most appalling thing in the Conservative manifesto is this unspeakable dementia tax.
For the first time you’ll be asked to cash-in your home when it comes to paying for your care and your treatment.
And the worst thing, to my mind – let’s say you’re the wife of a husband who has to go into a nursing home because of dementia, the reality is your house, the house that you still live in, the family home, will have to be cashed in now under the Tories’ heartless dementia tax.
That’s absolutely appalling. It’s a specific attack on those who end up getting dementia. If you have dementia, the Tories are coming for you.
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The Hollywood actor Danny DeVito has voiced his support for Jeremy Corbyn once again, the Press Association reports. DeVito, 72, backed the Labour leader last year, saying he was a “big fan” of Corbyn. Now, with the election looming, he has tweeted:
U.K. You've got the guy. Register by May 22nd. Vote for Jeremy Corbyn...show us how it's done!#grime4corbyn
— Danny DeVito (@DannyDeVito) May 19, 2017
Last year the actor who starred in Matilda, Twins and The War Of The Roses told the Press Association: “You guys got Jeremy. I’m a big fan of Jeremy.”
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Labour press conference - summary
Here are the main points from the Labour press conference.
- Labour said 10 million pensioners could lose payment worth up to £300 a year under the Tory plans to cut winter fuel payments. John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, said this figure was based on the assumption that the Tory plan would involve only people on pension credit still being allowed to claim. If that was not the plan, the Tories should say so, he said. The standard winter fuel payment is £200 per household, but it is £300 for a household with someone over 80. McDonnell said:
Yesterday the Conservative party abandoned older people. There was a triple whammy: the tearing up of the triple lock [on pensions], the attack on the winter fuel allowance, and the plans on care costs where people could lose control of their homes.
To be frank, I’m angry. I’m one of those people who have campaigned against fuel poverty for a number of years ... There are 1 million pensioners or more living in fuel poverty, 30,000 excess deaths a year in winter in this country. It looks as though the means test could hit 10 million people ... This is a savage attack on vulnerable pensioners, particularly those who are just about managing. It is disgraceful and we are calling upon the Conservative party now to withdraw it today. We will not stand by and allow our pensioners’ winter fuel allowance to be cut in this way and so many of them to be back in the situation where they have to choose whether to be in a situation where they heat or eat.
- Labour said pensioners would have been £330 worse off in total if pensions had been increased every year since 2010 in line with the “double lock” (the highest of earnings or inflation - the new Tory policy) not the “triple lock” (the highest of earnings, inflation or 2.5%).
- McDonnell defended having the winter fuel payment as a universal benefit, saying that means testing limited take-up and that wealthy pensioners who received it also paid their taxes.
- He claimed the Labour manifesto plans would allow the party to reverse benefit cuts. (They will, but probably not in full. See here for more detail.)
John McDonnell says when he saw the new poster he thought they'd brought back John Prescott. #GE2017 pic.twitter.com/VCDXfYIOQQ
— Carl Dinnen (@carldinnen) May 19, 2017
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Q: You have dismissed Len McCluskey’s claim that Labour may only get 200 seats. But are you concerned about making significant losses in places like Yorkshire.
McDonnell says things are turning. The more people look at policies, the more they will think again.
Andrew Gwynne is now winding things up.
He says the Tory triple whammy on pensioners is now a big issue in the campaign.
And that’s it. I will post a summary soon.
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Q: What do you say to pensioners who remember the IRA bombing and you might be concerned about someone, like you, who praised the role of the IRA?
McDonnell says he has apologised for those words. But he has also said that no cause is worth a life. Everything he did was about securing peace. He says MPs like him later discovered that the government was talking to the IRA in secret.
Q: In the past you said you would wade through vomit to vote against benefit cuts. But Labour is planning to scrap tuition fees, helping middle class students, but not to reverse all benefit cuts.
McDonnell says Labour has committed money to reverse benefit cuts.
Q: Are you saying pensioners will die because of the winter fuel payments cut?
McDonnell says he does not want pensioners to be cold this winter. He appeals to the Tories to withdraw it today. It is a bad policy.
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Q: Even though some of your policies are popular, you are still well behind. What will you do in the next few weeks to change that?
McDonnell says there has been a shift in the polls. He thinks there is an underlying subterranean move. People are beginning to look at policies.
He says Theresa May should debate with Jeremy Corbyn live on TV.
He says one thing May and him have in common is that they do not trust Philip Hammond.
Q: Are you saying pension credit has not worked? That is means tested.
McDonnell conceded it has. It was introduced by Labour. But means testing has drawbacks.
The last Labour government was “terrific” in terms of lifting pensioners and children out of poverty, he says.
Q: Why do you need the winter fuel payment? And what do you spend it on?
McDonnell says he spends it on winter fuel. If it were means tested, people would not claim.
And administering a means-tested benefit would be more expensive, he says.
Q: I met a voter worried about the Tory plans but intending to vote Tory because they are worried about Jeremy Corbyn. What would you say to that person?
McDonnell says the person should look carefully at what is on offer. He says Corbyn is a politician who is honest and decent and open.
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Q: Why are you saying that 10 million pensioners will be affected? The Tories have not confirmed that.
McDonnell says he was using the Resolution Foundation figure. If the Tories want to raise something in the region of £1.4bn, they need to restrict winter fuel payments to those on pension credit.
He says if that is not the Tory plan, they must say so.
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Q: What does it say about Labour that people feel you have to cost everything, and that the Tories don’t?
McDonnell says it is outrageous that Labour produces a costed manifesto, but the Tories don’t.
He says Labour will issue journalists with 30 questions to ask the Tories. We will measure journalists’ productivity by how many they ask, he says.
Some of these questions are serious. Pensioners are under threat.
He says it is innovative for Labour to lay out information like this.
Labour asked for access to the Office for Budget Responsibility and to Treasury models, he says.
Q: What is Labour’s position on Heathrow?
McDonnell says Labour supports Heathrow expansion, subject to strict conditions on pollution being met.
He says he is the constituency MP. He is opposed to expansion, because he does not think those conditions will be met. And constituency MPs are allowed to take up constituency interests.
They are now taking question.
Q: Why should Mick Jagger or Alan Sugar get £300 a year from the taxpayer [in the form of the winter fuel allowance]?
McDonnell says the whole point of having a non-means-tested benefit is that means testing has a deterrent effect: people do not claim. The pension credit form is 19 pages long. And people with higher incomes pay their taxes.
He says this policy is putting pensioners at risk. That is why Labour is demanding that the Tories withdraw the plan.
Q: You have not mentioned Tory plans for immigration. Is that because Labour would not reduce it?
McDonnell says the Tories have published a manifesto with 60 uncosted pledges. Labour did publish costings.
The Tory migration pledge has been in two manifestos, and it has not been met.
Last night the defence secretary Michael Fallon fell apart when asked how much the policy would cost. It has been estimated it could cost £4bn to £6bn a year, he says.
Updated
John McDonnell is speaking now.
According to the OECD, the UK is the only major economy where growth has returned, but wages have fallen.
Under the Tories, working families are paying more in tax, he says.
He says there are net tax rises of £14.4bn in the pipeline between now and 2021-22.
That is equivalent to £760 per family, he says. It would take the tax burden to its highest level since the 1980s.
He says the Tories have increased pressure on families before, and will do so again.
The UK is set to experience the worst decade in household incomes since 1949.
He says the choice at the election is clear: a threat to pensioners and living standards, or a Labour plan that will protect working people.
He says the Tories abandoned older people yesterday. They suffered a triple whammy: the ending of the triple lock on pensions, the winter fuel payment cuts, and the extra social care costs.
He says it looks as if 10 million people will be hit.
And, if only those on pension credit get the winter fuel payment, many people will lose out because a third of people eligible for credit do not claim it.
We should be able to keep pensioners warm in the winter, he says.
Updated
Here is Labour’s new poster.
John McDonnell launches Labour's punchy new election poster. pic.twitter.com/WifToHjI9l
— Kevin Schofield (@PolhomeEditor) May 19, 2017
Rebecca Long-Bailey is speaking now.
She says the Tories have launched an all-out attack on pensioner living standards. They are turning their backs on working people, on people who worked hard. Pensions must feel as if they’ve been kicked in the teeth.
She says the Tory message is work for longer, and do not expect any help in old age.
Theresa May said she would end the pursuit of selfish individualism, Long-Bailey says.
She says May used to support the triple lock.
Under the Tories, after 2020, the state pension will be raised annually in line with the highest of pay or earnings, not pay, earnings or 2.5%.
But the Tory record on pay has been very poor.
She says Labour are publishing figures showing that, if the double lock had been in place since 2010, not the triple lock, pensioners would have lost £330 in total.
That is why Labour is promising to keep the triple lock, she says.
She says the Resolution Foundation says 10m pensioners are at risk of losing their winter fuel payment, worth up to £300.
This cut is nothing more than an attack on pensioners, she says.
She says Labour introduced winter fuel payments. They worked.
And, on the state pension age, she says the manifesto suggests the Tories will adopt the conclusions of the Cridland review, that proposed increasing the state pension age in line with rising life expectancy.
But Labour would keep the state pension age at 66. It would then review pension policy, with a view to looking at the case of introducing a flexible pension age.
Updated
Labour press conference
Labour is holding a press conference about the Tory manifesto.
Andrew Gwynne, the election coordinator, John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, and Rebecca Long-Bailey, the shadow business secretary, are speaking.
McDonnell says the Tory manifesto promises more of the same. It fails working people, and especially pensioners.
It dropped the triple lock on pensions, dropped the tax lock, and dropped the commitment to raise living standards.
There is not a single reference to living standards in the manifesto.
There is a “clear and unambiguous threat to living standards” from the Tories, he says.
Updated
The Scottish National party has got its retaliation against its Conservative rivals in first by publishing a list of a “dirty dozen” policies that Theresa May has to justify.
Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP leader, singled out “punitive cuts to disability cuts”, freezing working-age benefits, the “rape clause” and two-child cap for child tax credits, the bedroom tax restriction in housing benefit, ending the triple lock on pensions, taking Scotland out of the EU single market, renewing the Trident nuclear missile system and introducing an “arbitrary” target for net migration.
Sturgeon said:
Theresa May needs to explain today why, under her government, inequality is set to rise at its fastest level since the 1980s.
The Tory campaign in Scotland is silent about their cuts to family incomes, cuts to public services and the number of children who will have to grow up in poverty if the Tories get their way.
The SNP sees the Scottish Conservatives as their main opposition in this election, in part due to the near doubling in support for the Tories under their Scottish leader, Ruth Davidson, to as high as 33% in one poll. The Tories are targeting SNP seats, several of which are vulnerable.
The Tories are widely expected to win the snap election, and any opposition needs to attack the dominant party. However, the SNP also needs to leverage the Tory surge to cement its position among Scotland’s anti-Tory voters at the expense of Labour, particularly in urban constituencies.
Updated
Ken Clarke says May's views on economic policy are the same as his
Here are the main points from John Humphrys’ interview with Ken Clarke, the former Conservative chancellor, on Today earlier.
- Clarke said that Theresa May “agrees with [him]” on economic policy. Given that some Tories view Clarke as well to the left of Ed Miliband or Ed Balls, this is probably not an endorsement she will welcome. He said:
I think she agrees with me on economic policy - free market economics, with a social conscience ...
She is not Margaret Thatcher. She is a very mainstream Conservative. She has never been on the hard right. She’s probably not quite as one nation as I am. What she’s got is intelligent common sense, and, boy is she going to need it.
- He said he favoured the introduction of identity cards to help control immigration. Saying that he accepted the need to tighten immigration controls, he said:
I have always thought that we need identity cards to try to control at all the system. We are one of the few countries in the developed world that doesn’t have an identity card, so no one can be immediately required to demonstrate who they are. That’s absurd.
He said a control like Britain needed “tough immigration controls” combined with a policy that allowed workers to come and go.
Immigration is a serious subject. You do need, in today’s world, tough immigration controls that do control who comes and the numbers, combined with an understanding that if we are to have a modern, developed economy, 30-year-olds in this country will go and work in Berlin for a bit of their careers and come back again and all the rest of it.
- He claimed that leaving the EU would not make “the faintest difference” to whether or not the government managed to get annual net migration below 100,000. That was because the UK had always adopted a relaxed version of freedom of movement, he claimed.
We always ran a rather looser version of free movement of labour than some of the other member states. We could have been been tighter if we wanted to be.
- He mocked John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, for wanting to ensure that pensions like him continued to get winter fuel payments.
Nice of of John McDonnell to want to look after my capital and to save you and me [John Humphrys], because you draw your pension as I do now, on top of your salary - apparently we’re going to suffer fuel poverty, says John, because we’re losing our winter fuel payments. I don’t think we will
- He said he was “delighted” the Conservative manifesto was not costed because making firm commitments on tax and spending was a mistake. He said:
Ever since that crazy manifesto that somebody put out at Conservative headquarters last time, we appear now to have a debate that all the budgets for the next four years, and every public policy you want, should be constrained in detail in what I think you’ll agree is the rather mad atmosphere of an election campaign.
Having a costed manifesto would limit what a government could do, he said.
Certainly not. If I was chancellor of the exchequer in say three or four years’ time, which certainly I won’t be, the idea that I have to go to the manifesto to see what the budget is going to have in it is crazy, because we don’t know what circumstances you face.
He said that when he was chancellor someone had said the government would always lower taxes. “That would have been crazy,” he said. He said sometimes taxes could go down, and sometimes they had to go up.
Scottish Tories say Scotland should be exempt from May's plan to cut winter fuel payments
The Scottish Tories want an exclusion from Theresa May’s plans to means test winter fuel payments, in the first sign of policy differences emerging between the UK and Scottish parties as Ruth Davidson prepares to launch her party’s Scottish election manifesto in Edinburgh.
David Mundell, the Scottish secretary, who is defending a slender 798 majority over the Scottish National party in the rural seat of Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale, said restricting access to the £300-a-year benefit was difficult in Scotland because of its harsher winters and greater reliance on costly heating fuel in rural areas.
He told the Herald political editor, Mike Settle, he wanted it to remain a universal benefit:
The specific view in relation to Scotland is that, obviously we have different climatic issues and we have a different geography and there are far more people off-grid, who receive their fuel from not the gas or electricity grid but in terms of liquid gas, for example.
Adopting different policy approaches could prove tricky for English and Welsh Tory MPs anxious to protect their support among older voters, particularly in northern England. Mundell claimed May would accept the need for different approaches: “That’s devolution,” he said.
Updated
I will post a summary of the Ken Clarke interview in a moment.
He was speaking to John Humphrys at Nottingham University, from where Humphrys was co-presenting the programme.
Next up in the chair on @BBCRadio4 Today live from @UniofNottingham Trent Building is @KenClarkeMP pic.twitter.com/GW8UQGE2DZ
— UoN Press Office (@UoNPressOffice) May 19, 2017
Fallon admits Tories don't know how much plan to cut migration will cost economy
Labour has attacked the Conservatives for not providing costings for their manifesto promises. John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, published a list of around 60 uncosted Tory promises yesterday, and this morning he was on the Today programme making the same point. See 8.19am.
Last night on Newsnight, Evan Davis asked Sir Michael Fallon, the defence secretary, about the missing costings. He did not get very far.
ED: The costings document that sets out the costs and whether it’s all going to work, is that coming later, or did I miss it, or is it online somewhere?
MF: No, you haven’t missed it. Some of these things, of course, will depend on, we will consult on the level of the means test by which wealthier people will be asked to surrender the winter fuel allowance. Some of the detail is still to be consulted on, as you would expect.
Davis also got Fallon to admit that the Tories have not produced any estimate of the cost to the economy of their pledge to get annual net migration below 100,000. Here is the key exchange.
ED: How much is it going to cost the exchequer to get immigration down by two thirds from its current level?
MF: We haven’t set out the formulation of how much it will reduce by each year. What we set out is our ambition to continue to bear down on ...
ED: Have you costed that proposal? You blame Labour for not costing all theirs. Now have you costed that proposal? Because the OBR [Office for Budget Responsibility] says it will cost money.
MF: Well, you need to cost proposals where you need to spent billions of pounds in implementing it.
ED: But this is going to cost billions of pounds.
MF: It isn’t going to cost billions of pounds.
ED: But that’s what the OBR says. How do you know it’s not if you haven’t costed it?
MF: The OBR doesn’t say it’s going to cost billions of pounds, with the greatest of respect …
ED: The OBR models different migration scenarios. And there are billions of pounds of national income difference between those models, and that translates into billions of pounds of exchequer difference between those different migration assumptions. I put it again to you: have you costed the proposal to get immigration down by two thirds from its current level?
MF: No, we’ve not costed, because we don’t know specifically what year we’re going to reach that point of reducing to exactly tens of thousands.
Fallon was also reluctant to describe cutting annual net migration to below 100,000 as “a policy”. He preferred to describe it as “an ambition”.
You can watch the full interview here.
Updated
Ken Clarke, the Conservative former chancellor, is on the Today programme now.
He says he is delighted that the Tory manifesto is not costed.
If you adopt that policy, governments get constrained.
He says it would be “crazy” for a chancellor to have to consult the manifesto to see what should be in his budget.
He says he thinks Theresa May’s approach to politics is the same as his – responsible economics with a social conscience.
Q: Calling Theresa May a “bloody difficult woman” does not seem to have done her any harm.
Clarke said that reference came from something he said to Sir Malcolm Rifkind. He told Rifkind that although May was difficult, he would be voting for her.
I will post more from the interview soon.
Updated
Good morning. I’m taking over from Claire.
Here is some Twitter comment on the John McDonnell interview.
From the Telegraph’s Christopher Hope
John McDonnell is right. The Tories have not costed their policies. Labour has. #GE2017
— Christopher Hope 📝 (@christopherhope) May 19, 2017
From Total Politics’s David Singleton
Len McCluskey changed his GE prediction because he "woke up feeling more optimistic". Great line from John McDonnell #r4today
— David Singleton (@singersz) May 19, 2017
From the Spectator’s Isabel Hardman
Personally think John McDonnell is Labour's most effective front bench media performer.
— Isabel Hardman (@IsabelHardman) May 19, 2017
Andrew Sparrow is now taking the blog for the rest of the Friday action.
If you’d like the Snap, our daily election briefing, to arrive in your email inbox on Monday, and every weekday until whenever this is all over, do sign up here.
McDonnell calls the Tory (re)commitment to cutting net migration to the tens of thousands “a joke”.
And reminded of Len McCluskey’s remarks that 200 seats for Labour would be a success, McDonnell says he’s more optimistic:
We’re going to win. We’re rising in the polls and now that people have seen this Tory manifesto … people are going to be angry.
Updated
McDonnell says the Tory social care plans are “a complete lottery”.
This is not a long-term solution. What we should be doing is going back to the Dilnot consultation.
He says not having a cap on care costs puts at risk those with illnesses such as dementia:
You lose, basically, control of your home. This is no solution.
He says the risk needs to be “pooled across society”:
It’s about universalism … that’s the basis upon which we’ve created our welfare state.
John McDonnell's Today interview
The shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, is on the Today programme to talk about the Conservative manifesto, which Labour has dubbed an “84-page blank cheque” due to its lack of detail on costings.
McDonnell says voters expect to see the costs as well as the manifestos.
Labour has been criticised in the past for not doing that. This week I did that.
He says people might not have agreed with the policies, but the detail was there. Not so for the Tories, he says:
We’ve had a manifesto laid out: 60 uncosted commitments.
Taxes could go up under a new Conservative government, he says.
He cites the means-testing of the winter fuel allowance, saying it’s not clear who will still get it:
That means 10 million pensioners are waking up this morning to news they could lose their winter fuel allowance.
They want to raise a significant sum … People on pensioner credits are some of the poorest in our society.
He calls the move “sick and sneaky”, and says many pensioners live in poverty.
They have not said where the means test will lie.
Updated
The British economy will need a net inward migration flow of 200,000 a year, double the government target, if it is to avoid “catastrophic economic consequences”, a study by the employer backed thinktank Global Future claims today.
The Tories recommitted themselves in their manifesto to a target of limiting net migration to tens of thousands, promising to double the cost to an employer of hiring a skilled immigrant worker, a move that has led to an outcry from business. As home secretary, Theresa May repeatedly missed the target, but it is now the symbol of a government commitment to meet the public’s desire to reduce immigration, the single biggest driving force behind last year’s vote to leave the European Union.
The Global Future report says the UK’s low productivity, ageing population and already identifiable labour shortages in key areas, such as the NHS, show that net migration of 200,000 will be needed annually.
The report, backed by three employers’ groups, criticises both main parties for refusing to be honest with the British public about the level of migration the UK requires, warning that if the UK refuses to be flexible about its sources of labour, it faces a potential decade of slow growth similar to the Japanese economy.
Updated
The Scottish Green leader has urged supporters to consider a tactical vote for Labour or the Liberal Democrats if their candidates have a better chance of stopping the Tories.
Patrick Harvie said he regretted that the Scottish Greens were only able to stand three candidates in the general election, but said a shortage of time and money meant the party had to focus on only a handful of Scotland’s 59 Commons constituencies.
Implying that Green voters should set aside the party’s quest for Scottish independence at this election, Harvie told the Guardian blocking the Tories should be a priority for his party’s supporters, many of whom would feel an affinity with the pro-independence Scottish National party.
“The idea that you’re focused on the need to advance Green politics but also oppose the Tory government doesn’t always lead you in one political direction,” Harvie said, in an effort to fend off allegations from opponents that his party is standing aside in 56 seats to bolster the SNP.
“There will be some parts of the country where Green voters will be tempted to vote SNP if there’s no Green candidate; there will be other parts of the country where Green voters might be tempted to vote Lib Dem or Labour.”
Harvie, co-convenor of the Scottish Greens, is standing for Westminster for the first time in Glasgow North, a seat held by the SNP’s Patrick Grady, after the area had the highest Scottish Green vote in the council elections this month.
“If I thought Glasgow North might fall to the Tories I would’ve stopped to think very hard [about standing], but I’m convinced that it won’t,” he said, before recommending Green voters also consider backing Scotland’s only Labour MP, Ian Murray, in Edinburgh South.
“If I was in Ian Murray’s constituency the question would be very different because he’s clearly very capable of beating the Tories.”
The absence of Theresa May from last night’s rest-of-the-leaders-apart-from-Corbyn-as-well debate was a key theme among the party leaders who did pitch up.
Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood (not Natalie, as Ukip’s Paul Nuttall twice called her) said the PM was “too scared to come here tonight for your U-turns to be highlighted, for your cruel policies to be exposed”, calling it “weak and unstable leadership”. (You’ll all see what she did there.)
Tim Farron, the Lib Dem leader, said May’s decision not to attend was proof she was taking the electorate for granted:
She thinks she owns this result. She thinks she owns our country, owns our future and owns our children’s future.
Sturgeon echoed Wood’s comments, but with a dig at the Conservative-Ukip détente, saying May:
did not have the guts to be here tonight but her spokesman in the form of Paul Nuttall is here in her place.
Updated
How to register to vote
Next Monday is the deadline to register, and you must be registered to have a vote in the 8 June election.
You can register at gov.uk/register-to-vote, which requires you to answer 11 questions including name, address, national insurance number and whether you want a postal vote. The deadline is midnight on 22 May.
To register you must be a British, Irish or qualifying Commonwealth citizen resident in the UK, or a UK citizen living abroad who has been registered to vote in the UK in the last 15 years.
If you are a student you may be able to register to vote at both your home and term-time addresses, but remember that it is illegal to vote more than once.
Sarah Wollaston, the Conservative incumbent standing again in Totnes and a former GP, has written for the Times today about her party’s social care proposals. She is not entirely won over:
Any policy must avoid unintended consequences and ministers will need to clarify what period of grace will be applied for those who may only need short periods of care. This so-called ‘disregard’ is set at 12 weeks for those needing residential care and it is essential that this also applies to home care. If not, it will exacerbate rather than reduce delays to hospital discharges.
The dropping of the care cap sadly leaves social care uninsurable, leaving in place the miserable lottery of care costs. A future government should at least look again at supporting state-backed insurance for those who have not yet reached retirement age, so that they can begin to protect against this.
The case for insurance was also pressed yesterday by Sir Andrew Dilnot, who led a government review into the funding of social care in 2011. He said the Tory manifesto “shows a less than full understanding of the problems”.
The Conservative campaign so far has not exactly been characterised by its openness – now Scottish political journalists aren’t entirely sure where this morning’s manifesto launch will be happening:
Heading to Edinburgh for Scottish Tory manifesto launch and they still haven't told me where it's being held #strongandstablevenuebooking
— David Clegg (@davieclegg) May 19, 2017
The Scottish Conservatives will be the first party in Scotland to unveil their general election manifesto, with an event in Edinburgh where party leader Ruth Davidson will make a direct pitch to Labour voters to switch sides at this election. Labour, the Scottish National party, Greens and Lib Dems will follow on from Monday next week.
Davidson, who as Holyrood Tory leader is not standing for election to Westminster, will seize on the fact Scotland was the only Labour region that voted against Jeremy Corbyn in the last UK leadership election.
She will focus on a recent battle between Aberdeen city councillors and the party’s Scottish executive over the councillors’ controversial decision to agree a coalition deal with the Conservatives against the orders of party leaders.
Latching on to the apparently centrist elements of Theresa May’s UK Conservative manifesto on workers rights and pay, and buoyed by opinion polls putting the Tories 10 to 15 points ahead of Labour in Scotland, Davidson will say:
The truth is, your party has left you, not the other way around. And it may well find its way back. But you know – and I know – it won’t be at this election.
Pitching to unionist, working-class voters, she will add:
We are committed to workers’ rights, boosting low pay, getting a good deal for our fishermen and improving the education of our young people so cruelly let down by this Scottish government.
Together, with your help, we can lead the fightback against the SNP and stop Nicola Sturgeon trying to pull our country apart.
Despite these bravura words, Davidson’s party is quite unlikely to make a breakthrough in inner-city areas of Scotland rather the Tory-leaning shires and Highlands. The SNP’s grip on urban seats is too great, with only the well-heeled suburban seat of East Renfrewshire a possible gain in an urban area.
The Snap: your election briefing
Welcome back to the morning after the leaders’ debate that wasn’t. I’m Claire Phipps to help you catch your breath with your morning roundup before we plunge back into the campaign depths. Do join in the comments below or find me on Twitter @Claire_Phipps.
What’s happening?
Tim Farron is from Preston; Leanne Wood is not – despite the insistence of Paul Nuttall – called Natalie; Nicola Sturgeon is the self-styled leader of the resistance; Caroline Lucas might have been the winner; and the absence of Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn didn’t stop Conservative and Labour HQs snarking about each other on Twitter.
Is that all we learned from last night’s ITV leader-lite leader’s debate? Yes. If by any chance you’d like to relive it, our live blog, complete with Andrew Sparrow’s wearied conclusion, is right here.
If the twin themes of the debate were Brexit and May taking her election win (and voters) for granted, they are themes that the day leading up to the debate did little to unseat. “At last, a PM not afraid to be honest with you,” is the Daily Mail’s cod liver oily headline this morning in response to a manifesto assembled by people seemingly confident that they could unveil an adult colouring book and not slip below a 12-point lead.
“There is no Mayism,” May said at the launch, “only good solid Conservatism”, a less is more approach that stretched from the policy-light manifesto to the PM’s decision not to trouble herself with televised debates. (She prefers door-knocking, which might, it turns out, reach a not dissimilar number of people to last night’s ITV viewing figures.)
The prime minister vowed to be “upfront and straight” as she announced plans for elderly people to fund their own social care, the means-testing of winter fuel payments, and the downgrading of the pensions triple lock – scolded as a “nasty party triple whammy” by Corbyn.
Foxhunting and selective schools make it in. Out would go the Fixed-term Parliaments Act (already mortally wounded by the fact we’re enduring an election campaign right now), Leveson part two and the “tax lock” pledge not to raise national insurance or income tax. The single market and the customs union: also so over. You can read more on all the key points here, along with how it differs from David Cameron’s 2015 to-do list here.
What you can’t read is the numbers. There were a few dabbed here and there: £4bn for schools (though £2.8bn of that is to cover rising pupil numbers); another £8bn a year for the NHS (not enough, say experts). But having derided Labour over its spending plans, the Tories decided to outsmart the nitpickers by simply not bothering to show its own costings, prompting Labour to label it an “84-page blank cheque”.
Interviewed on BBC Newsnight on Thursday, defence secretary Michael Fallon conceded that even the policy – though the Tories are now calling it merely an “ambition”, despite copying and pasting it into the manifesto for the third time – to slash net migration had not been costed, “because we don’t know specifically what year we’re going to reach that point of reducing to exactly tens of thousands”.
Perhaps that immigration policy is now so old it can pay for its own care.
Today, May will not be knocking on individual voters’ doors to show them her scribbled sums because it’s the turn of the Scottish Conservatives to give their manifesto an airing. That curbing of winter fuel payments might not make it into this version; the block on another independence referendum before Brexit will.
At a glance:
-
The Guardian view on Theresa May’s manifesto: a new Toryism.
- Tories receive £50,000 from donor questioned by Serious Fraud Office.
- National Grid boss say Labour plan will stall green energy drive.
- Scottish Greens urge tactical voting to block Conservatives.
- Gina Miller targets voters with tailored Facebook ads.
Poll position
Perhaps voters really do pay attention to manifestos: an Ipsos Mori telephone poll for the Evening Standard, conducted after Labour set out its plans, pushed the party up eight points from last month to 34%, a campaign high. The Tories held steady at 49%, paring their lead from 23 to – I can’t really justify an “only” here – 15 points. The Lib Dems slithered from 13% in April to just 7%; the Greens (+2 to 3%) vaulted Ukip (-2 to 2%).
Diary
- This morning we’ll have the Scottish Conservative manifesto from Ruth Davidson in Edinburgh.
- John McDonnell and Rebecca Long-Bailey will deliver Labour’s response to the overall Conservative plans.
- At noon, in Anglesey, Leanne Wood sets out Plaid Cymru’s ideas for a post-Brexit Wales.
- Tim Farron is out and about in Cheshire.
Read these
Lucky Marina Hyde was in the leaders’ debate spin room:
Ukip always bring along a full nest of spinners: couple of sharp suits, a few local heavies, and one guy who looks like he might ask you to help him lift a sofa into the back of a van. ‘It would have been better if the other four had just agreed everything beforehand and just one of them had debated Paul,’ one explained. But another thought it couldn’t have gone better, ‘and he looks the part’.
Does he? Paul Nuttall has two political outfits: one, the dark suit, which makes him look like the sort of passively-aggressed employee whose boss greets him daily with the words, ‘What you doing in that daft suit, Paul? You in court or something?’ And two, the tweed-on-tweed, which makes him look like the efit of a man wanted in connection with a roofing scam.
Isabel Hardman, in the Spectator, says – for different reasons – that Corbyn was right not to attend the debate:
I suspect for Corbyn, the decision not to go near this opposition-focused debate has much more to do with his own belief that this election should be fought on normal terms (ie, that Labour might win) … Corbyn may also have found it rather uncomfortable being ganged up on from the left by Caroline Lucas, Nicola Sturgeon and Leanne Wood, who gave the altogether more professional Ed Miliband a hard time in 2015. They might have asked him why he abandoned the principles of unilateral nuclear disarmament, for instance.
Revelation of the day
Just as interesting – OK, interesting might be a stretch – as what’s included in a party manifesto is what it leaves out. So what won’t be going “Forward, Together” with Team Theresa May? Air pollution doesn’t get a mention. On new nuclear power stations, a staple of previous Tory policy, not a murmur. Rail fares? Not stopping at this station. Russia, China, North Korea, Syria, Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq and Yemen: nothing to see here. And to anyone still holding out for that £350m a week extra for the NHS, I hate to break it to you…
The day in a tweet exchange
Farron says you've got to be honest with the British people. Good time to remind everyone that Lib Dems trebled tuition fees #itvdebate
— Labour Press Team (@labourpress) May 18, 2017
You've taken the night off. Shut up. https://t.co/RzbdjNZeQY
— Lib Dem Press Office (@LibDemPress) May 18, 2017
And another thing
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