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The Guardian - AU
The Guardian - AU
Politics
Andrew Sparrow (now) and Claire Phipps (earlier)

General election: Len McCluskey wins Unite leadership election - politics live

Len McCluskey, left, with Jeremy Corbyn. McCluskey, one of Corbyn’s most powerful backs in the Labour movement, has been re-elected Unite general secretary.
Len McCluskey, left, with Jeremy Corbyn. McCluskey, one of Corbyn’s most powerful backs in the Labour movement, has been re-elected Unite general secretary. Photograph: Leon Neal/AFP/Getty Images

Afternoon summary

  • Theresa May has committed the Tories to keeping aid spending at 0.7% of national income. (See 2.08pm.)
  • May has refused to commit to keeping the “triple lock” for pensions, which guarantees that they will rise every year in line with inflation or earnings or 2.5%, whichever is highest. (See 3.52pm.)
  • The Leave.EU campaign group is facing an investigation into “potential offences under the law” over its European Union referendum spending returns, the Electoral Commission has revealed. (See 4.58pm and 5.05pm.)
  • Tim Farron, the Lib Dem leader, has said Theresa May is using “bogus” arguments about Brexit to justify an early election motivated by party-political calculation. Speaking in Manchester, he said:

There is no doubt whatsoever that Theresa May called this election not for all the bogus reasons she claimed about needing a mandate for Brexit. Sadly the Labour party gave her a mandate for Brexit as they pushed us off a cliff-edge voting for article 50 without a single condition attached. She’s got all she needs if she wants to pursue Brexit, I’m afraid. She looked across the despatch box and thought ‘I cannot resist the temptation of taking on Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party - the most ineffective opposition in inter-planetary history’.

Tim Farron launching the Lib Dem campaign in Manchester.
Tim Farron launching the Lib Dem campaign in Manchester. Photograph: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

I don’t want to see a Tory government but I can read the opinion polls as well as anybody else can. If Scotland doesn’t want a Tory government that has a massive majority, that has the ability to do whatever it wants, to silence Scotland’s voice, to impose cuts, further austerity, and to try to almost silence the Scottish Parliament, there needs to be really strong opposition from Scotland to that Tory government. That can only come from the SNP. That’s the clear message that we’ll be taking to every part of Scotland.

That’s all from me for today. A colleague will be taking over.

Thanks for the comments.

Nicola Sturgeon joins locals and council candidates in Edinburgh to launch the SNP’s manifesto for the local elections.
Nicola Sturgeon joins locals and council candidates in Edinburgh to launch the SNP’s manifesto for the local elections. Photograph: Murdo Macleod for the Guardian

Updated

Back to the 0.7% aid commitment, and this, from the Times columnist and ConservativeHome founder Tim Montgomerie, is interesting.

The Liberal Democrats are also criticising Theresa May for refusing to commit to keeping the pension triple lock. The Lib Dem MP Alistair Carmichael said:

Theresa May’s refusal to guarantee the triple lock is yet another massive U-turn by the Prime Minister ... The triple lock was a Liberal Democrat achievement in the coalition government and pensioners should now realise that their pensions are not safe in Conservative hands.

The Lib Dems have not published their manifesto yet, but a party spokesman said it was party policy to keep the triple lock.

Kate Osamor, the shadow international development secretary, has responded to Theresa May’s pledge to keep the 0.7% aid target by challenging the government to commit to not changing the definition of aid. She said:

The Tories have been cutting the aid budget by stealth for years, and they are now arguing over whether to go even further by abandoning the international definition of aid.

The prime minister needs to end this speculation immediately by confirming that the Tories would continue to abide by the definition set out by the OECD. Abandoning the globally recognised standard would undermine the purpose of the 0.7% commitment and send a terrible signal to the rest of the world.

The Ukip leader Paul Nuttall has condemned Theresa May’s decision to commit to keeping the 0.7% aid target. He said:

The foreign aid budget which is due to go up to £15 billion by 2020 is an absolute outrage. It costs the British people £30m every single day.

Ukip is the only party that wants to see a drastic reduction in the foreign aid budget and to see that money spent on our NHS instead.

We want to see British taxpayers’ money spent here in our country on our own people. We are not afraid to say ‘charity begins at home’.

Paul Nuttall.
Paul Nuttall. Photograph: Peter Nicholls/Reuters

Here is John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, on Theresa May’s refusal to commit to keeping the pension triple lock. (See 3.52pm.) He said:

Only four days into the Tory campaign and Theresa May has refused to commit to maintaining the pensions triple lock, just as Philip Hammond refused to commit to it on Tuesday.

Theresa May’s refusal to commit the Tories to maintaining the pensions triple lock only further proves the Tories are abandoning older people. It’s now clear pensions protections are now in jeopardy.

Labour will stand up for older people by maintaining the pensions triple lock and by keeping the winter fuel allowance and free bus passes so that the elderly can go about their lives with the dignity they deserve.

Jeremy Corbyn is now in Cardiff. These are from my colleague Steven Morris.

This is what the Electoral Commission is saying about its investigation into Leave.EU. A spokesperson said:

The Electoral Commission has begun an investigation into Leave.EU’s EU referendum spending return. This followed an assessment which concluded that there were reasonable grounds to suspect that potential offences under the law may have occurred.

The investigation is focused on whether one or more donations – including of services – accepted by Leave.EU was impermissible; and whether Leave.EU’s spending return was complete.

The time taken to complete an investigation varies on a case-by-case basis. Once the investigation is complete, the commission will decide whether any breaches have occurred and, if so, what further action may be appropriate, in line with its Enforcement Policy. The outcome of concluded cases can be seen on the commission’s website.

Coyne accuses Unite machine of bullying him

Gerard Coyne, who narrowly lost the Unite leadership election to Len McCluskey, has put out a statement accusing the union machine of bullying and intimidating him. He said:

It has been a very close count and the ballot sends some very serious messages to Unite.

I am proud to have run a campaign that faced up to the issues that concerned members. Unite needs to change, and it needs to put its focus back where it belongs: on looking after the real interests of the members of the union.

It’s been a hard and robust campaign. The union machine consistently attempted to bully and intimidate me, something that has continued even after the close of polls.

Nevertheless tens of thousands of members backed my fight to change our union for the better.

On the downside, turnout has fallen disastrously. Many members have reported to me that they did not get their ballot paper at all or if they did, that it arrived literally on the day polls closed and so was useless.

This was no vote of confidence, with falling turnout and a halving of Len McCluskey’s previous vote. It’s time for all those that were involved to reflect on the message that the union’s membership are sending to the organisation.

Gerard Coyne.
Gerard Coyne. Photograph: Jane Barlow/PA

Electoral Commission to investigate alleged spending offence by Leave.EU during referendum

The Press Association has just snapped this.

The Electoral Commission has launched an investigation into the European referendum spending return of campaign group Leave.EU following “an assessment which concluded that there were reasonable grounds to suspect that potential offences under the law may have occurred”.

Two months ago the Observer published an investigation revealing how Leave.EU, which was set up by the one-time Ukip donor Arron Banks, received helped from a data analytics company linked to an American billionaire who helped to fund Breitbart News and the Trump campaign.

With Theresa May promising to keep the 0.7% aid target and hinting she may ditch the pension triple lock, and Philip Hammond hinting taxes may go up, our friends at the Telegraph aren’t very happy. These are from Christopher Hope, the Telegraph’s assistant editor and chief political correspondent.

Would you like to be an MP? Then contact the Labour party. It is using Twitter to help find candidates.

Blair says pro-Europeans should work together in the election to oppose hard Brexit

In an article for the Evening Standard Tony Blair says he expects Theresa May to win the election with a large majority.

Whatever may be desirable, the polls appear to be definitive on the election and the respective polling positions of the Leaders of the Government and Opposition.

There are many great Labour candidates and MPs and I will be fully supportive of them. But the fact is that if the polls are right, Theresa May will be PM on June 9 with a large majority.

More significantly, the former Labour prime minister says pro-Europeans should unite and oppose candidates who would support a hard Brexit. (That’s my shorthand - Blair does not use the term.)

We need to add a new dimension to this election, a movement of informed voters who can ensure that a re-elected Tory party cannot claim a mandate for Brexit at any cost.

I propose that the organisations that want to keep open the right of people to change their minds on Brexit, depending on the outcome of the negotiation, come together to mobilise voters to demand from candidates a clear statement of their position on Brexit; in particular, whether they would refuse to support a deal that substantially diminishes our access to the single market or a “no deal” outcome.

There are hundreds of thousands of people who are still highly active on this issue. There are several organisations, each with a contact base of more than 200,000 people and one with more than 500,000. Would-be MPs need to know that for significant numbers of their constituents an open mind on Brexit counts.

We don’t know what size majority Mrs May will get. But we can determine what mandate she can claim.

He is not explicitly urging pro-European tactical voting - he could get thrown out by Labour if he did, because big parties do not allow their members to publicly endorse their rivals - but one senses that if readers were to adopt that as a strategy, he would not be too disappointed.

Tony Blair.
Tony Blair. Photograph: Jonathan Brady/PA

Updated

Unite has issued a press statement confirming the results - see 4pm - and giving turnout as 12.2%.

Gail Cartmail, the union’s acting general secretary, said:

I congratulate Len McCluskey on his victory and would urge the entire union to pull together in the interests of our members, and not least to work for a Labour victory in the general election.

The turnout in this important election can give no cause for satisfaction and, while the tone of the campaign will not have helped, the underlying reason remains the archaic and expensive balloting system imposed on trade unions by law. The sooner we can move to secure and secret workplace and online voting the better for union democracy.

Translated into percentages, those results are:

Len McCluskey - 46%

Gerard Coyne - 41%

Ian Allinson - 13%

McCluskey had been expected to win, but by a wider margin.

Unite leadership election results in full

This is from the Press Association’s Alan Jones.

Updated

Theresa May's speech and Q&A - Summary

Here are the main points from Theresa May’s speech and Q&A in Maidenhead.

  • She refused to commit to keeping the “triple lock” for pensions, which guarantees that they will rise every year in line with inflation or earnings or 2.5%, whichever is highest. Asked if pensioners could trust her to carry on increasing pensions every year, “just as your party and your government does now”, she replied:

What I would say to pensioners is just look what the Conservatives in government have done. Pensioners today £1,250 a year better off as a result of action that has been taken. We were very clear about the need to support people in old age and that is exactly what we’ve done.

  • She insisted that she was not complacent about winning. She said:

The election campaign has only just begun. I’m not taking anything for granted. The result is not certain.

  • She said she hoped to get a deal guaranteeing the rights of EU workers living in the UK soon. Asked about this by a Spanish worker at the plant, she replied:

As UK prime minister, I have an interest and a care for UK citizens living in EU member states. I see a lot of goodwill on this issue and people wanting to give that reassurance, and I hope we will be able to do that at an early stage. The formal negotiations haven’t started yet, but I hope this will be one of the early issues we look at.

  • She denied that she was chickening out of debating Jeremy Corbyn. Asked about this, she replied:

I’ve been doing head-to-head debates with Jeremy Corbyn week in and week out since I became prime minister.

What I am going to be doing in the campaign is actually getting out and talking to voters and listening to voters and hearing from voters and answering their questions. I’m out there taking my message to people up and down this country, and that’s what I believe is important.

This was in response to a question from the Daily Mirror’s Ben Glaze. The Mirror has a chicken trying to taunt May on the campaign trail on this point. He tweeted this yesterday.

Theresa May speaking to staff GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) in Maidenhead.
Theresa May speaking to staff GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) in Maidenhead. Photograph: Leon Neal/AFP/Getty Images

Len McCluskely re-elected as general secretary of Unite

Len McCluskey has been re-elected as general secretary of Unite, he has announced on Twitter.

That will be a big relief for Jeremy Corbyn, because McCluskey is one of his most powerful supporters in the Labour movement. If Gerard Coyne had won, Corbyn’s position in the party would have been significantly weakened.

Here are some more pictures from Jeremy Corbyn’s visit to the children’s centre in Bristol. He was reading We’re going on a bear hunt.

No doubt our colleagues at the other end of the Fleet Street spectrum will take a rather jaundiced view, but many people will find them delightful.

Jeremy Corbyn reads with children as he visits Brentry children centre in Bristol.
Jeremy Corbyn reads with children as he visits Brentry children centre in Bristol. Photograph: Steve Parsons/PA
Jeremy Corbyn at the Brentry children’s centre.
Jeremy Corbyn at the Brentry children’s centre. Photograph: Matt Cardy/Getty Images
Jeremy Corbyn at Brentry children centre in Bristol.
Jeremy Corbyn at Brentry children centre in Bristol. Photograph: Steve Parsons/PA
Jeremy Corbyn at the Brentry children’s centre.
Jeremy Corbyn at the Brentry children’s centre. Photograph: Matt Cardy/Getty Images
Jeremy Corbyn at the Brentry children centre
Jeremy Corbyn at the Brentry children centre Photograph: Steve Parsons/PA

Stig Abell, editor of the Times Literary Supplement (and therefore an appropriate person to comment on a children’s literary classic), seems to have been the first person on Twitter to make the obvious joke.

Corbyn says Labour is 'gaining a huge amount of ground'

Jeremy Corbyn has said Labour is “gaining a huge amount of ground” on the Conservatives in the battle to win the general election. Speaking during a visit to a children’s centre in Bristol, Corbyn told Sky News:

We’ve just started the election campaign, we’re 72 hours into it and I’m loving every moment of it. We’re gaining support, we’re gaining a huge amount of ground and we’re getting a great deal of support. Watch this space ...

We are putting a message out there - this country does not have to be so divided, [there] does not have to be such appalling levels of poverty and unachieved ambition because of people growing up in poverty. That’s our message, that’s the one we’re putting out, and the Labour Party is totally united in putting that message out, okay?

Jeremy Corbyn at the Brentry children’s centre in Bristol.
Jeremy Corbyn at the Brentry children’s centre in Bristol. Photograph: Matt Cardy/Getty Images

A Labour peer has compared the behaviour of Unite the union to the North Korean regime following the suspension of the union’s leadership hopeful Gerard Coyne just hours after ballot boxes were closed.

Lady Prosser, a supporter of Coyne and former president of the TUC, said the union has refused to say why he has been suspended and did so as first reports showed that Coyne might beat the incumbent and Jeremy Corbyn supporter Len McCluskey.
She told Radio 4’s The World At One:

My understanding is that the election was going well for Gerard and on some kind of analysis of how the votes were going that it looked a though he was going to win. And so for the next thing to hear is that he has been suspended and the union is not saying why, that just looks like something that might go on in North Korea.

Prosser said that Coyne was wrongly suspended by the union last year after letting it be known that he was going to stand to be general secretary.

He ended up with a final written warning and the reason for that was his attendance at a meeting with some Labour MPs who had at that time spoken out against Jeremy Corbyn. All of that was mucky and not nice and made everyone wonder what was going on. Now all of this has happened it makes you wonder what is going on. It can’t be right.

Prosser added that McCluskey has handled the election “hugely badly”.

There are rules to the game and the rules are that Lenny has put himself forward for election. And unless there is a really substantial reason why Gerard Coyne should be suspended then it looks like Lenny is going to be a bad loser. The union needs to come clean on just what they think it is that Gerard has done. Union members need to know about it.

Lady Prosser.
Lady Prosser. Photograph: Martin Argles for the Guardian

What May said about keeping the 0.7% aid pledge

This is what Theresa May said in response to the question about aid spending.

Let’s be clear – the 0.7% commitment remains, and will remain. What we need to do, though, is to look at how that money will be spent, and make sure that we are able to spend that money in the most effective way.

I’m very proud of the record we have, of the children around the world who are being educated as a result of what the British taxpayer is doing in terms of international aid.

The ability we had to be able to help in the ebola crisis, the work that we’ve been doing supporting Syrian refugees – I was in Jordan a couple of weeks ago, in a school, meeting some youngsters who are being given a good-quality education. That’s one of the things the United Kingdom is providing.

So I’m very proud of the record that we have. We’ve maintained that commitment, but we have to make sure that we’re spending that money as effectively as possible.

Updated

This is from my colleague Patrick Wintour.

May commits Tories to keeping the 0.7% aid target

The BBC’s John Pienaar gets a question now.

Q: Will you continue to raise pensions every year?

May says people should look at what the government has done.

The government has been very clear about the need to support pensioners, and it has done that.

  • May refuses to commit to keep the triple lock for pensions. But she was not pressed explicitly about the triple lock, only about pensions in general, so it is not clear how much should be read into the fact that she did not commit to keeping the triple-lock.

Q: [From 5 News’ Andy Bell] How does calling an early election help ordinary people?

May says it is about giving the country certainty and stability.

She says we have to think about taking the country through Brexit and then beyond.

Q: What is your response to what Rowan Williams said today? (See 11.43am and 12.53pm.)

May says she has been very clear that the 0.7% aid target does remain and will remain.

  • May commits Tories to keeping the 0.7% aid target.

Theresa May is now taking questions.

She is at a factory and is taking questions from members of the staff before taking them from journalists.

Hammond hints Tory manifesto will drop pledge not to raise income tax, national insurance and VAT

After his budget U-turn on raising national insurance for the self employed, Philip Hammond has hinted at the IMF spring meeting in Washington that the coming Tory manifesto will drop 2015 pledges not to raise income tax, national insurance and VAT.

The chancellor said the 2015 commitment made by David Cameron had constrained the government’s ability to bring down Britain’s budget deficit.

Hammond, whose plan to raise national insurance for the self-employed in last month’s budget was dropped within a week, said he wanted more flexibility to put the public finances back into shape. He said:

I’m a Conservative. I have no ideological desire to to raise taxes. But we need to manage the economy sensibly and sustainably. We need to get the fiscal accounts back into shape.

It was self evidently clear that the commitments that were made in the 2015 manifesto did and do today constrain the ability to manage the economy flexibly.

Philip Hammond.
Philip Hammond. Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA

Updated

May says election victory is not “certain” and she is taking nothing for granted

Theresa May is speaking in Maidenhead, where she is the local MP.

She says the election is about leadership.

She is only prime minister because she is an MP, she says. And she is only an MP because the people of Maidenhead have put their trust in her.

She says the election is not certain. She is not taking anything for granted.

  • May says election victory is not “certain” and she is taking nothing for granted.

This line was not in the version of this stump speech that May delivered on Wednesday.

It reflect the Tory concern that the huge opinion poll leads could be counter-productive. See 10.330am.

Updated

Jeremy Corbyn has dismissed questions about his future as “absurd” and claims he is “loving every minute” of the campaign.

Speaking to reporters in Swindon, the Labour leader claimed he was gaining support. “Watch this space,” he said.

Asked whether he had decided what to do after the election, Corbyn said: “What an absurd question. We are 72 hours into the election. We are putting a message out there: ‘this country doesn’t have to be so divided’ ... and the Labour party is totally united in putting that message out.”

Updated

Harriet Sherwood has more on the intervention of Rowan Williams, on the row about Britain’s aid budget.

An investigation by the UK media regulator into Rupert Murdoch’s £11.7bn takeover of Sky has been delayed until after the general election, writes Mark Sweney.

Karen Bradley, the culture secretary, was set to receive the findings of two investigations by Ofcom – examining whether the takeover gives Murdoch too much control of UK news media and whether he is a “fit and proper” owner – by 16 May.

However, Theresa May’s decision to call a snap general election on 8 June means Ofcom’s deadline has now been extended to 20 June.

Under government rules governing “purdah” – the period immediately before elections, which in this case is due to start at midnight on 21 April – Bradley is not allowed to make a decision on the report.

Updated

PA has more on the departure of Lizzie Loudon, the second member of Theresa May’s inner circle to quit after the snap election announcement.

Loudon is leaving her role as May’s press secretary after what she described as a “thrilling” and “historic” nine months in Downing Street.

It comes after Katie Perrior left the post of Number 10 director of communications on Tuesday, when the PM announced the snap June 8 election.

A former aide to Iain Duncan Smith when he was work and pensions secretary, Loudon said she was not expecting to come back into the government after working on the Brexit campaign last year.

But she was “honoured” to be asked to work on May’s leadership campaign and was retained as press secretary after she became PM.

“I always thought and intended that my departure from government last year - to work on the Leave campaign - would be final, and I would move on to other things,” she said.

“None of us expected a leadership campaign, but I was honoured to be asked to work on Theresa’s campaign, and to come into government. By anyone’s standards it has been the most amazing - and historic - nine months. And it was thrilling to be a part of.”

According to the Guido Fawkes blog, Conservative Campaign Headquarters has appointed Rob Oxley as head of news for the election. Oxley was also involved in the Vote Leave campaign, and was a special adviser to international development secretary Priti Patel.

Updated

This is a bit tangential to British politics, but Donald Trump has just weighed into French politics. In one of his latest tweets he claimed last night’s terrorist attack in Paris will “have a big effect” on Sunday’s presidential election.

Until now Trump has not expressed an opinion on the upcoming French election, but this is getting close.

Simon Jenkins warns against such a response to the attack. In an opinion piece for the Guardian, he writes:

If we wish to turn Britain’s forthcoming election into a security-drenched hell, we will do so by overreacting to Paris. That way we will ensure that terrorism “just never ends”.

Updated

Nicola Sturgeon
Nicola Sturgeon Photograph: Andrew Milligan/PA

Scotland’s first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, has accused the Conservatives of fielding local election candidates “more at home in Ukip”.

Launching the SNP’s local election manifesto for the vote on 4 May, Sturgeon signalled that she sees the main threat to her party as coming from the Conservatives.

She said: “These elections decide who is responsible for running your local services and will determine whether we invest in services or allow the Tories to extend their cuts agenda into the heart of local communities.”

She warned Scots of an attempted “power grab” by the Scottish Tories which she said Labour and the LibDems were unable to stop. Sturgeon said:

“The SNP is the only party that can stand against cuts and privatisation of our public services, in the face of an increasingly hardline Tory party which, under Ruth Davidson, is fielding candidates who would be more at home in Ukip.”

“There are real and dangerous consequences if our vital local services fall into Tory hands. With Labour and the Lib Dems ready to sell out for even the slightest suggestion of power, voting for any other party risks seeing the Tories take over our town halls.”

Updated

Rowan Williams
Rowan Williams Photograph: Jonathan Brady/PA

The former Archbishop of Canterbury, Rowan Williams, has weighed into the debate about the international aid budget by urging Theresa May not to cut the existing pledge to spend 0.7% of GDP on aid.

Williams, who is chairman of Christian Aid, said cutting the budget, as the Conservatives are expecting to pledge in their manifesto, would signal a turn away from the world’s poorest in favour of “Little Britain.”

He said: “We can choose to turn inwards and struggle more and more urgently to protect ourselves; or we can look outwards, recognising that our good is bound up with that of others.”

Williams added: “We must be careful not to present people with false choices that set the needs of the most vulnerable in our own society against those of people living in long-term poverty and powerlessness overseas, whose priority is the capacity to decide their own future and secure their own well-being ...

“The continuing levels of public generosity from British people in response to successive emergency appeals show how deeply rooted these impulses are in our national identity and our sense of responsibility to the wider world.

“As we debate the future of our country, our relationship to the EU and our new relationship with the world, we should wear our aid budget as a badge of honour that sets a standard for others to follow.

“The British public are proud that our great nation hasn’t turned its back on the world’s poorest people. So, at a time when the world most needs our leadership and strength, we call on the leaders of all parties to hold firm on the promise we have made, and stand up for their belief in a bigger Britain.”

His comments come after Bill Gates warned that cutting the aid target would mean more lives would be lost in Africa.

Updated

PM's press secretary quits

Theresa May’s press secretary Lizzie Loudon, has quit her job after just nine months in post, in the latest blow to the prime minister’s communication teams.

Loudon’s departure comes after communications chief Katie Perrior left in the wake of the snap election announcement.

Loudon, a former special adviser to Iain Duncan Smith, joined No 10 from the leave campaign. She was credited with bringing an understanding of outers to Downing Street.

Updated

Here’s an audio summary of Corbyn’s pledges in Swindon courtesy of Sky News.

As Northern Ireland’s parties gear up for a bruising and, as ever, tribal general election campaign in the region, the secretary of state James Brokenshire reminds us that there is still another political game in town - the discussions aimed at restoring power sharing devolved government in Belfast.

The Northern Ireland Secretary has granted local parties what could be described as “Fergie Time”, the extra extra time that Manchester United once seemed capable of getting from referees.

Brokenshire has once again extended the deadline on devolution talks right up to 29 June. The original deadline was before the Easter break. He did so by enacting legislation today that also allowed him to use powers enabling local councils to strike a district rate before they start to run out of money.

The regional rates should be the responsibility of the devolved government at Stormont but, with parties unable to agree to a deal that would bring back a cross community coalition, the secretary of state has acted this morning. He said in a statement:

Since the Northern Ireland Assembly election on 2 March our focus has been on re-establishing inclusive, devolved government.

The forthcoming UK general election does not change that. This bill will therefore enable an executive to be formed in the coming days should an agreement be reached. However, if an agreement is not possible before the general election, it is right that we provide flexibility for an incoming government to act in the best interests of Northern Ireland and the space for the parties to conclude a deal.

This bill gives the parties the legal authority to convene the assembly, appoint ministers and get on with the resumption of devolved government at any point up to 29 June. This is what the people of Northern Ireland voted for on 2 March, and should remain the focus in the weeks ahead.

The Lib Dems have raised £500,000 since the election was called through an urgent email appeal, more than twice as much as Labour, the Financial Times’ Robert Wright reports. Here’s an extract from his story (paywall).

The UK’s third biggest party, which is currently polling at about 12 per cent, told the Financial Times it had succeeded in raising £500,000 with an urgent email appeal. Labour said its similar initiative had raised £200,000.

In the last general election, the Lib Dems were punished by voters for their part in the coalition government but since the Brexit vote they have picked up support as the only party that is pro-EU.

In his Times column (paywall) Michael Gove, the Conservative former justice secretary, has also been writing about what Theresa May’s manifesto will look like. Here’s an extract.

The prime minister is, to use a phrase coined by one of her advisers, post-liberal. She is neither the cold economic liberal of one caricature nor the hand-wringing Hampstead liberal of another; neither Hayek nor Rawls. She is instead a communitarian, closer to the thinking of a philosopher such as Alasdair MacIntyre, or indeed the Blue Labour intellectual Maurice Glasman.

Which is why I expect the Conservative manifesto, and the Queen’s Speeches to follow, to be rooted in the concerns of those whom the writer David Goodhart has described as the citizens of Somewhere rather than Anywhere. Those who are rooted in specific communities, who aren’t living life from one Twitter storm to the next, who don’t have the reserves of capital, or connections, to be able to chase every new opportunity globalisation might provide.

Corbyn confirms Labour would abolish zero-hour contracts

Jeremy Corbyn is speaking at an event in Swindon now.

He says Labour will publish its manifesto soon.

But he wants to highlight some announcements made recently.

Some 1m people are on zero hour contracts, he says.

They do not know how much they will earn from one week to another.

Why do we allow this form of employment in this county. A Labour government would end zero-hour contracts.

And he says 6m people work for an inadequate wage.

So a Labour government would introduce a living wage of £10 an hour, he says.

He says he accepts some small firms would have problems paying £10 an hour.

Labour would have a scheme to ensure they are compensated as appropriate, he says.

Jeremy Corbyn speaking in Swindon.
Jeremy Corbyn speaking in Swindon. Photograph: Sky News

According to reports in the Sun and the Daily Telegraph, the Conservatives’ massive opinion poll lead is being seen by some in the party as a liability, not an asset. Both papers report party sources as being concerned that the polls showing the Tories ahead by around 20 points are creating unreasonable expectations. It has got to the point where a majority of less than 60 could be seen as disappointing, the Telegraph reports.

A Tory source told the Sun:

We take no great comfort from our position in the published polls. Public polls measure national support for the parties, but the election will be decided in a handful of marginal seats.

There is clear historical evidence that the reported Tory lead could actually be non-existent, and if the vote is distributed unfavourably we could easily lose our working majority. We only need to lose 6 seats and no one party would hold a majority.

Sir Lynton Crosby, the Tory election chief, has reportedly been flagging up a blog by the American polling expert Nate Silver claiming that the UK polls could be out be as much as 15 points. Here’s an extract:

On average, UK polls this far out have missed the final margin by 6 percentage points. And they don’t get all that much more accurate as you go along — the final polling average has missed the result by 5 points. The experience in Brexit last year — when the polls missed the final margin by 4 points according to the Huffington Post polling average or 6 points according to the method I described above — wasn’t a big outlier by UK standards. The same goes for the previous U.K. general election in 2015, when they underestimated Conservatives by around 6 points. Polls in 2010 were quite good in diagnosing the Conservative-Labour margin, although they considerably overestimated Liberal Democrats’ performance.

May’s Conservatives do have a massive lead, with recent polls showing them 9 to 21 points ahead of Labour and their unpopular leader, Jeremy Corbyn. Also, while the polls in the UK haven’t been very accurate, they’ve tended to underestimate Conservatives rather than Labour in the past.

But if polls are missing election outcomes by 5 or 6 points on average, that means the margin of error (or 95 percent confidence interval) is very large indeed. Specifically, a 6-point average error in forecasting the final margin translates to a true margin of error of plus or minus 13 to 15 percentage points, depending on how you calculate it.

Here is the table from Silver’s blog backing up his claim that UK polls just before elections are on average wrong by 5 points.

Average error in UK polls.
Average error in UK polls. Photograph: Nate Silver

It is worth pointing out that alternative analyses suggest UK polls are more accurate. Here is an extract from the British Polling Council’s report into why the 2015 election polls were wrong (pdf).

In every election [between 1945 and 2010], the polls have (on average) always been different from the final result, to a greater or lesser degree. Across all polls the average MAE was 2.2%, with a minimum of 0.8% (1955/1959) and a maximum of 4.6% (1992). The same approximate levels of error can have different consequences, depending on the closeness of the race between the two main parties. Note that the MAE on the Conservative and Labour vote shares was only marginally worse in 2015 (3.3) than in 1997 (3.1). Yet the 1997 election is not considered to have been a polling disaster; the polls indicated there would be a Labour landslide and there was.

And here is the chart from the BPC report illustrating these figures.

Chart showing accuracy of UK election polls
Chart showing accuracy of UK election polls Photograph: BPC/British Polling Council

Updated

Anyone hoping that the Conservative party manifesto insight will give a detailed insight into Theresa May’s plans for the next five years may be disappointed, according to a good column by the Spectator editor Fraser Nelson in the Daily Telegraph (paywall). Here’s an extract.

The last Conservative manifesto contained 625 pledges, none intended to be taken seriously. David Cameron didn’t think he’d ever win a majority and saw his various promises as chips to be bargained away with Nick Clegg – but then, things went badly right. The 625 figure has been repeated by those around Theresa May recently, with some disdain. Their point: that this time, the number of pledges could be closer to 62. Or, even better, six. That a good manifesto should give a clear sense of direction, but with as few hard promises as possible.

I understand that the Prime Minister has given her team two weeks to come up with a manifesto for the June 8 election, under a very clear remit. She wants it to be short, closer to 25 pages than the 120-page opus that David Cameron unloaded on the public in 2010. She wants clarity of thought but no laundry list of pledges. Her model is Margaret Thatcher’s slim 1979 manifesto, which offered just five ideas and boasted about its lack of “lavish promises”.

Nelson says Philip Hammond, the chancellor, is particularly reluctant to make promises.

Until the manifesto publication date – pencilled in for May 8 – there will be tensions. Philip Hammond, the chancellor, is pushing for a pledge-free economic section. He wants no spending commitments, nothing about balancing the books in this parliament or any other, and freedom to raise whatever taxes he likes. Ben Gummer, who is liaising with ministers over the manifesto, is facing similar requests from his colleagues: could they kindly be released from their various pledges?

Yesterday, for no obvious reason, Priti Patel, the international development secretary, issued a very long written statement to MPs defending the record of her department.

The Daily Mail is interpreting the move as an attempt by Patel to defend her department’s budget. Theresa May has refused to commit the Tories to maintaining their commitment to spend 0.7% of national wealth on aid in the next parliament. The Mail says the target will not be abandoned completely, but that it could be watered down. In his Mail story Jason Groves reports:

Tory sources suggest the target is unlikely to be axed altogether. But a Government insider confirmed last night that ministers are examining whether to abandon the international definition on aid to allow the cash to be spent on a wider range of activities, including some that currently come from the defence budget.

Priti Patel.
Priti Patel. Photograph: James Gourley/REX/Shutterstock

Ballot papers are being counted today in the Unite leadership contest. Len McCluskey, the current general secretary and one of Jeremy Corbyn’s most powerful supporters in the Labour party, had been expected to win reasonably comfortably, but, according to the BBC’s Ross Hawkins, one account has him “neck and neck” with Gerard Coyne, his main challenger. In a bizarre move, Coyne was suspended from his union post yesterday.

Good morning. I’m taking over from Claire.

Seven weeks today we will know the results of the general election. But we don’t have to wait that long for an election result. Local council byelections take place on Thursdays and, as usual, Britain Elects has last night’s results, or result.

I’m handing over the live blog to Andrew Sparrow now for the rest of the day’s campaign action.

Please do sign up for our morning email, the Snap, to start your every weekday from now until polling day (and possibly beyond; who can predict these days?). You can register here, and read today’s here.

The Labour leader will visit the Conservative constituency of Cardiff North today, where he will claim that “seven years of Tory failure and broken promises have left our schools in a terrible state” and that “hundreds of thousands of our children are paying the price”.

He will point out that the Tories have failed to deliver the 2010 manifesto pledge to deliver “small schools with smaller class sizes”.

Corbyn will promise:

Labour will stand up for all children by building a schools system for everyone, keeping class sizes down and making sure schools and teachers have the resources they need to ensure that every child, whatever their background, has access to a world-class education.

Labour party analysis of Department for Education figures suggests 40,000 primary pupils are being taught in classes of more than 36 pupils and 16,600 are now in class sizes of 40 and above.

Angela Rayner, the shadow education secretary, said:

This situation is becoming unsustainable; too many children are being taught in classes which are simply too big.

The system for school place planning is broken. The Tories need to let go of their unjustified fixation with free schools, but instead they have relaxed the rules so even more can be built in areas where there is no demand for places. Free schools are clearly not addressing the growing pressures on schools.

Labour believes that pushing the class size issue, together with its recent free school meals pledge and its opposition to the creation of new grammar schools, means it has a strong story to tell about education. However, it will not be clear until its manifesto is published how increased spending on schools will be funded.

Over on the Today programme, Labour’s Liam Byrne and Tory Grant Shapps are doing their very best to avoid answering the question of whether earning £70,000 a year makes one “rich” – despite coming on the radio to participate in a segment about whether earning £70,000 a year makes one “rich”.

This analysis might help them: statistics show that only a smidgen over 5% of taxpayers earn that much. Those earning between £15,000 and £50,000 make up two-thirds of UK taxpayers.

Michael Dugher last night became the latest sitting Labour MP to announce he will not be standing again on 8 June.

He told Politics Home he had made the decision to step down in Barnsley East with “some sadness”:

I have worked for the Labour movement for nearly all of the past 20 years. Throughout that time I have always tried to fight for a Labour party that is in touch with working class people and one that can get into government so we can actually do something to really help people.

I wish the party and more importantly the people of Barnsley nothing but the best for the future.

Shadow cabinet reshuffleFile photo dated 28/9/2015 of Michael Dugher who today said on Twitter that he had been “sacked” by Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn as shadow culture secretary. PRESS ASSOCIATION Photo. Issue date: Tuesday January 5, 2016. See PA story POLITICS Labour. Photo credit should read: Gareth Fuller/PA Wire
Over and out: Michael Dugher. Photograph: Gareth Fuller/PA

Labour MPs Andy Burnham, Alan Johnson, Iain Wright, Pat Glass, Tom Blenkinsop, Fiona Mactaggart, David Anderson, Jim Dowd, Rob Marris, Andrew Smith and Gisela Stuart have already announced their decisions to step down.

(For the very keen, Politics Home has an updating spreadsheet of all incumbent MPs as they announce whether they’re sticking or stopping.)

Updated

My colleague Steven Morris reports from Bristol, where he found “love – or admiration and sympathy at least” for Jeremy Corbyn:

Martin Wells, a psychotherapist from Bristol, admitted he had not voted for a while. “I’ve been Labour all my life but I fell out of the habit of voting. I think I had just lost interest in all politicians.”

But then came the 2015 general election, Brexit and the triumph of Donald Trump. “It made me sit up and think.” Wells plans to back Labour this time. “I like Jeremy Corbyn. He makes me feel more optimistic. I will vote for him.”

This is a constituency of contrasts. Wells was walking his dog, Sonny, in leafy Clifton, just down the road from Brunel’s magnificent suspension bridge. But the seat also includes some of Bristol’s deprived and bohemian neighbourhoods – places such as Easton, which is home to artists, eco-warriors, dreamers and a good many people struggling to eke out a living.

The Guardian Kate Baker, pictured in Bristol for an article on the upcoming election. April 20 2017.
Kate Baker: Theresa May ‘knows what she wants and will do it’. Photograph: SWNS.com/David Hedges SWNS.com

None of this is to say that Bristol is in the bag for Corbyn’s party. At the Focus on the Past antiques emporium in Clifton, worker Kate Baker said she had always voted Labour. “But I’m going to vote for Theresa May this time. I think she has integrity. I think she knows what she wants and will do it. Brexit is going to be awful. She will give us some stability.”

She is not against Corbyn. “I like him, actually, but I don’t think many in his party do and that’s a problem.”

Pro-remain Tories are hastening to send their thoughts to the PM for the Conservative manifesto, following her call for contributions, Rowena Mason and Peter Walker report:

Some of those trying to keep their seats in remain-supporting areas are asking for explicit mention of the need to seek a trade deal with the EU.

The MPs, in south-west England and Greater London, are also calling for transitional controls to prevent a cliff-edge at the point of Brexit, while others fighting the Liberal Democrats and Labour in marginal seats are pushing for more support for “just about managing” families on housing and childcare.

Ben Howlett, Tory MP for remain-voting Bath, who won his seat from a Lib Dem in 2015, said he would “clearly like to see a commitment for getting a trade agreement with the EU so we do not end up with a hard car-crash Brexit getting the upper hand”.

But they won’t be the only MPs aiming to have their voices heard:

On the other side, many on the right of the party will see the revision of the 2015 manifesto as an opportunity to rid the Conservatives of all traces of David Cameron and George Osborne’s “modernising” project.

There are a number of Conservative MPs campaigning for an end to the target of spending 0.7% of national income on foreign aid and for deregulation and tax cuts after the UK leaves the EU.

Scottish former first minister Alex Salmond thinks Theresa May, in refusing to participate in televised debates, is turning her back on what had been a progressive step in UK politics.

Writing in the Guardian today, he says:

It was generally assumed that once the precedent was set, there would always be television debates in elections. However, May’s refusal to take part can be explained in two words – Lynton Crosby.

She has hired Cameron’s “Wizard of Oz”, that master of the darkest of political arts. Lynton’s highly paid instruction would be simple, but probably delivered to the vicar’s daughter with his usual expletives deleted. It would be something like “You are 20 points ahead, prime minister – take no risks whatsoever” …

This is a prime minister who finds dissent inconvenient, even irritating. A case in point is her extraordinary diatribe outside No 10, aimed at all the opposition parties for opposing. This posed as the pretext for having an election she solemnly pledged seven times not to call. Theresa May is facing the weakest opposition in living memory. Still she is not satisfied. Total compliance with her way is required – or else.

How do you feel about the snap election? We’re looking to build a picture of the mood of the country ahead of the general election. Wherever you live, and however you’re intending to vote, please do share your views with us:

The Snap: your election briefing

Good morning and welcome to the beginning of the end of a week in which the UK sharpened its pencils for yet another run at the ballot boxes.

Andrew Sparrow will be along later to cover the day’s campaign action; in the meantime, settle in with your morning rundown of all things electoral. Comments are open below or you can find me on Twitter @Claire_Phipps.

What’s happening?

Just when he thought the UK was out, they pull him back in … Jeremy Corbyn’s efforts to edge out of the Brexit shadow by ruling out a second referendum and talking about things we used to talk about in election campaigns, such as schools, have run up against yet more Brexit news.

Leaked EU negotiating guidelines show – quelle surprise – that the bloc of 27 isn’t quite on board with Theresa May’s talk of unity. Instead it wants the UK to honour billions in budget commitments, guarantee lifelong rights for EU citizens in Britain, and stay bound to the European court of justice – the last a direct staredown with May’s promise to “bring an end to the jurisdiction of the court in Britain”.

There’s an (EU-regulated) carrot along with that stick, though, with an assurance from Antonio Tajani, president of the European parliament, that he and “everybody … would be very happy” if the UK wanted a European reunion.

May herself will need to talk about something other than Brexit mandates and STRONG. STABLE. LEADERSHIP. at some point soon. Rowena Mason takes you through what’s likely to get top billing in May’s June manifesto. The prime minister has already renewed her commitment to squish net migration down to the tens of thousands, despite the Home Office failure to get anywhere close to such a figure under the stewardship of home secretary T. May.

Ditched, for now, is a planned hoiking of probate fees, after the government’s issuing of the 8 June save-the-date cards means it will now run out of time to implement the legislation.

New policies to fill the occasional gaps in the political agenda for the next couple of years are being sought, with May asking Tory MPs to send their suggestions to No 10. Results of recent crowdsourcing efforts would suggest the official Conservative manifesto will now be entitled Tory McToryface.

Politicians meet at Downing Street, London, UK - 20 Apr 2017Mandatory Credit: Photo by Alan Davidson/SilverHub/REX/Shutterstock (8620284n) Theresa May Politicians meet at Downing Street, London, UK - 20 Apr 2017
Checking the post: Theresa May wants answers on a postcard for the Tory manifesto. Photograph: SilverHub/REX/Shutterstock

The Brexit eddy plays neatly into the hands of Tim Farron, who oversees the official launch of the Liberal Democrat campaign today in Manchester. He’ll get a fillip too from news that Surrey’s Labour group could be set to back a Lib Dem contender in an effort to oust Tory Jeremy Hunt from his seat. Although Farron – along with Corbyn – has rejected a Green entreaty to form a progressive alliance, he presumably won’t look a gift health secretary in the mouth.

At a glance:

(FILES) This file photo taken on April 13, 2015 shows UK Independence Party (UKIP) leader Nigel Farage attending a coffee morning at Coppins Community Centre in Clacton-On-Sea in Essex on April 13, 2015 during a general election campaign visit. Nigel Farage, former leader of the anti-EU UK Independence Party (UKIP) announced on April 20 that he would not run for the next parliamentary elections on June 8 in the UK. / AFP PHOTO / BEN STANSALLBEN STANSALL/AFP/Getty Images
Stubbed out: Nigel Farage’s Westminster ambitions are over (for now). Photograph: Ben Stansall/AFP/Getty Images

Poll position

Today’s polls disclaimer comes courtesy of Corbyn, who said yesterday of his own current ratings:

All I can say is, in 2015, almost exactly two years ago, I was given 200-1 as an outside chance.

The Financial Times poll tracker – which collects the most recent surveys from seven pollsters – has the Conservatives on 45%, Labour on 26%, Lib Dems on 10%, Ukip on 9%, SNP on 5% and the Greens on 4%.

The Britain Elects poll of polls has the Tories ahead of Labour – as they have been since May 2015 – by, at last count, 42.4% to 26.1%.

Diary

  • From 10.15am, Jeremy Corbyn starts in Swindon, then to Bristol, winding up in Cardiff where he’ll give a stump speech on schools.
  • At 10.30am Nicola Sturgeon launches the SNP’s local election manifesto (they’re on 4 May).
  • 3pm sees Tim Farron officially kicking off the Lib Dem election campaign, in Manchester.
  • Theresa May of Mystery will be out somewhere as yet undisclosed.
  • Meanwhile, chancellor Philip Hammond is in Washington DC for IMF spring meetings.

Talking point

The Labour leader is off to Cardiff today, where he wants to talk education (though presumably not in triplicate). With 40,000 primary pupils in England and Wales being taught in classes of more than 36 pupils – and 16,600 in classes of over 40 – Corbyn will warn that children are being “crammed into classrooms like sardines”.

Food and DrinkMandatory Credit: Photo by Food and Drink/REX (2481414a) Canned Sardines Food and Drink
Sardines: not literally. Photograph: Food and Drink/REX/Rex Features

His trip to Wales has been labelled “a massive own goal” by the Conservatives, who point out that the number of infant pupils in plus-sized classes there has risen by 18% in the last three years. Labour leads the Welsh administration, though it does so, as the largest minority party, courtesy of support from sole Lib Dem assembly member – and education secretary – Kirsty Williams.

The New Statesman has an interesting read on the prospects of Wales turning blue on 8 June. As unlikely as Wales voting to leave the EU?

Read these

An editorial in the Economist – which urged a vote for remain in last year’s referendum – argues that the election could lead to a “less damaging Brexit”:

With a larger majority [May] can more easily stand up to her ultra-Eurosceptic backbenchers, some of whom seem actively to want Britain to crash out. That explains why the pound rose this week.

The election also buys Mrs May time. Holding a vote this year means that she need not face the polls again until 2022, three years after Britain’s formal exit from the EU. Avoiding the pressure of an imminent contest at home will further strengthen her against the headbanging fringe of her own party and the right-wing press, which screams treachery at any hint of the compromises needed to secure a deal with the EU.

In the Guardian, Gaby Hinsliff weighs in on the “does earning £70,000 make you rich?” row:

Counterintuitive as it sounds, there’s a risk for Labour in jumping aboard the current posh-bashing wagon which doesn’t necessarily apply to other parties. As Gordon Brown’s pollster Deborah Mattinson has argued, when focus groups were asked about his desire to raise taxes on the rich, they didn’t balk at the definition of ‘rich’ or even at the risk that one day they might be eligible. They just complained that it was old-fashioned: it reminded them of 70s Labour.

The paradox is that raising taxes may scream ‘politics of yesterday’ to voters Labour needs to win over, when in many ways the idea has never been so contemporary. Crumbling public services, a mountain of debt to repay, and an ageing nation of pensioners with a post-Brexit aversion to letting young, taxpaying foreigners move here all adds up to one logical conclusion: tax rises loom almost regardless of who wins in June.

Over at the Times, Michael Gove – who stood against May for the keys to No 10 – offers some thoughts on what her first manifesto could contain:

I expect the manifesto to be distinctly unglamorous, indeed anti-glamour, and all the better for that. I would expect more emphasis on improving technical education and renewed focus on those overlooked parts of the country where educational opportunity still lags far behind the capital. I would also expect policies to boost productivity, including changes to corporate governance as part of a strengthened industrial strategy focused on boosting employment outside the southeast. I think we might also see an assault on establishment glitz: Lords reform, changes to the honours system, heightened probity in appointments and the exercise of patronage.

Revelation of the day

A snap election is guaranteed to cause a few scrambles – candidates finding seats; dusting down printing presses; bumping PE classes from polling stations – but here’s a fresh one: the “rolling manifesto”.

Brent MP Dawn Butler told BBC Newsnight late on Thursday that Labour might not show the whole of its hand just yet:

There will be things, I’m sure, that we will want to put into the manifesto that we won’t be able to put in just yet, so the manifesto may even be a rolling manifesto, in that there’ll be other things coming in at the end.

I’ll allow you a short break here to set your iCalendars for a June policy surprise.

The day in a tweet

Fact-check: it is indeed a thing, and Farron has said he “welcomes the challenge”.

And another thing

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