Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) is entering what analysts describe as its biggest iPhone upgrade cycle in more than a decade, with Gene Munster highlighting iOS 26 and the iPhone 17 hardware refresh as catalysts for stronger-than-expected demand.
Munster Sees Historic Upgrade Cycle
Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, said in a video shared on social media that Apple's latest rollout marks a rare moment for the company.
"It's been 12 years since a comparable iOS update and 11 years since a similar hardware refresh," he said. "That's good news for iPhone growth in FY26."
Munster noted that the new liquid glass iOS 26 introduces a learning curve but ultimately delivers a cleaner experience that will push users toward upgrades, especially those with older devices.
He added that sluggish performance on four-year-old iPhones under the new system could accelerate replacement demand.
Liquid Glass iOS 26 Sparks Shift
The new operating system, first previewed at WWDC in June, changes the look and feel of core apps, integrating Apple Intelligence features such as prioritization in messaging.
Munster compared the shift to the landmark release of iOS 7 in 2013, when Apple abandoned skeuomorphic design for a flatter, modern interface.
"Apple is very deliberate" and cautious with OS changes, Munster said, describing iOS 26 as a once-a-decade type of upgrade that will drive user engagement and hardware adoption.
JPMorgan Tracks Stronger iPhone 17 Demand
Backing up Munster's view, JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee reported this week that iPhone 17 pre-orders are modestly ahead of iPhone 16 across the U.S., China, Germany and the U.K.
"Early trends imply better demand," Chatterjee wrote, maintaining an Overweight rating and a $255 price target.
The iPhone 17 Base and Air models are showing the strongest momentum, with delivery lead times of 14 and 7 days, respectively, compared with just 5 and 2 days for the iPhone 16 equivalents. Pro and Pro Max versions are also tracking slightly ahead of last year.
Pricing And Value Drive Interest
Priced at $799 — the same as the iPhone 16 — the iPhone 17 offers notable upgrades, including a 6.3-inch display, slimmer bezels, 120Hz ProMotion support and double the base storage at 256GB.
Analysts say those features narrow the gap between base and premium models, increasing value for mainstream buyers.
Munster predicted Apple's iPhone sales growth will surpass Wall Street's estimates, calling for 10% growth in the December quarter and 7% in FY26, versus consensus forecasts of 7% and 5%.
Price Action: Apple shares are down 2.34% year-to-date, compared to a 12.58% gain for the S&P 500 over the same period, according to Benzinga Pro.
Despite this underperformance, Benzinga's Edge Stock Rankings show AAPL holding a strong outlook across short, medium and long-term horizons, with additional performance insights available here.
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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
