While there have been massive changes for women in the workforce, both men and women in their 20s are experiencing bigger changes than have occurred for nearly 20 years – changes that will likely see fewer of both gender working full-time throughout their lives.
When I looked this week at the changing nature of women in the workforce over the past 45 years, a number of people wondered whether there had been much change on the men’s side.
The answer is, not really.
While women who were born in 1982 were much more likely to be employed in their 30s than were women born 20 years earlier, for men the situation has barely changed.
Around 86% of men born in 1962 were employed in their 30s, compared with around 89% of 30-year-old men born in 1982:
Where there has been some change is among full-time work for men.
In 1978, 95% of men who were employed were working full-time; now it is just 81%.
But somewhat surprisingly there has not been a great change across the generation of men currently aged 35-55.
For example, about 82% of men born in 1962 were employed full-time in their 30s – exactly the same as for those born in 1982:
The reason for this is that the biggest change in the nature of full-time work occurred during the 1990s recession.
This was not too surprising – recessions always hit male full-time employment the hardest; what was surprising was just how massive the hit was.
The percentage of men aged 25-54 who worked full-time dropped in three years from about 86% to just below 80% – a level around which it remained for 15 years until the GFC hit and sent it tumbling to a then-record low of 78.4%:
For those born in 1962, the 1990s recession came as they turned 30 – and thus for those born after that time, the big structural shift in full-time work had already occurred.
For women the situation is different – and might explain somewhat why there remains a large disparity of women in managerial positions.
While the rates of women in employment now remain relatively steady from 25 to 40 years of age, there remains a massive drop in the level of full-time work done by women of that age.
While 54% of women born in 1982 were working full-time when they were in their mid to late 20s, only 37% of them are so employed now that they are in their mid-30s:
But the problems for young men and women going forward are somewhat different, though sadly, neither is all that positive for the millennial generation.
For men, the full-time employment situation is getting worse, and for women it looks like it has peaked.
While the situation for men born from 1966-1982 is rather steady, the situation has deteriorated for those born after that time.
If we look at the full-time employed rate for men aged 25-29 by the year of their birth we can see three periods of stability – prior to the 1982-83 recession; during the 1980s; and from the mid-1990s to the GFC.
But for those who turned 25 after 2008, things have been progressively getting worse:
79% of men born in 1982 were working full-time when they were in their late 20s, compared with just 71% of those born in 1992 – a difference that equates to around 70,000 fewer men in their late 20s now working full-time than a decade ago.
And because the level of full-time work in your 20s is a very good indicator of such work over the rest of your working life, this suggests very strongly that full-time work will continue to be harder to come by for millennials than for even their gen X counterparts.
I was born in 1972, and men of my age were 16% more likely to be working full-time in our early 20s than those who are now that age:
Now we could be optimistic and say that this is evidence that more men are studying full-time than in the past. That is certainly true. But it requires one to be rather more optimistic than I am to then suggest this will lead to these men being as employed full-time as those of us born at an age that saw us enjoying grunge music while we were in our 20s.
For millennial women the picture is almost as dire.
For a span of 30 years, women born from 1953 to 1983 could more expect to be working full-time than did their older sisters.
Only 33% of women born in 1953 were working full-time in their late 20s compared with 50% of those born in 1973. It reached a peak of 54% for those born in 1983. But now it is back to 50%:
Women born in 1992 are as likely to be working full-time in their late 20s as those born 20 years earlier. In effect, the progress of 30 years has hit a peak and as with their millennial brothers they too have seen full-time work dissipate.
It suggests that for those who have just entered the workforce, or for those about to, the likelihood is for more part-time work than they would have expected.
For men this is something that has been a longer-term trend, albeit one that has been exacerbated by the post-GFC malaise.
For women it suggests that decades of progress may have been halted. Where women have increasingly taken on full-time work, now the desire to work full-time is increasingly outstripping the work available – which is why there is now a record level of women aged 15-35 who are underemployed:
Given the massive disparity of men in managerial roles, the added worry of these figures is that the decline in full-time work for women who are about to enter their 30s and 40s means that that the gender disparity in top positions will remain at its current abysmal level.
