Final thoughts
Preliminary finals don’t get much more one-sided than that. This was over inside the opening ten minutes when a Sydney blitz knocked the stuffing out of Geelong. The Swans were too slick in tight, too decisive in the open and too ferocious whenever they lost possession.
Geelong were poor. Their intensity was lacking and their skills were slipshod. As had been feared all season, too much was left to too few, and despite Joel Selwood and Patrick Dangerfield dominating the individual stats sheet they were never more than bit-part players in Sydney’s procession.
Aliir Aliir’s injury was the only concern for the night and he joins the list of Swans battling to be fit for the grand final. The only question now is who they’ll play? After losing eight quarters this season against the Giants, there’s no doubt who they’ll be barracking for.
Some stats:
Sydney: +13 disposals, + 18 tackles, + 4 clearances
Geelong: +32 inside-50s
Disposals: Dangerfield 39, J. Selwood 39, Hannebery 29
Tackles: J. Selwood 13, K. Jack 13
Swans win by 37
Geelong 8.12 (60) vs Sydney 15.7 (97)
4th quarter (02:00 remaining) Geelong 8.10 (58) vs Sydney 15.7 (97)
Geelong continue to huff and puff but Sydney’s defence isn’t going anywhere. Carnival atmosphere at the MCG now for the Swans.
4th quarter (05:50 remaining) Geelong 8.10 (58) vs Sydney 15.7 (97)
What does this mean for next year for Geelong? Bartel’s busted a gut tonight but this may be the last we see of him on the big stage. The Cats have been exposed for skills in close and intensity when the game was hot. That middle tier that has let them down often this year has again fallen flat - Motlop, Caddy, Stanley, Duncan. It’s a crude measuring stick, but Motlop has the fourth fewest AFL Fantasy points for the night.
Updated
4th quarter (07:50 remaining) Geelong 8.10 (58) vs Sydney 15.7 (97)
This one’s over, and conversation has turned to grand final selection for the Swans. It won’t be an easy match committee, that’s for sure, with a few sore bodies, Jarrad McVeigh likely to come back in, and a stack of unheralded squad players excelling tonight.
4th quarter (09:50 remaining) Geelong 8.10 (58) vs Sydney 15.6 (96)
Geelong haven’t given up but this quarter is a microcosm of their troubles all game. In midfield they can’t burrow through a solid red wall and further forward they can’t hit a target without a Swan floating in to intercept. The game just hasn’t been on Geelong’s terms.
4th quarter (13:20 remaining) Geelong 8.10 (58) vs Sydney 15.6 (96)
The miracle doesn’t look like it’s going to happen for Geelong. A spell of contested footy favours Sydney with the Cats unable to extricate the ball cleanly. Naismith rubs their noses in it with a juggling one-handed mark in a contest with Guthrie, takes plenty of time off the clock, and kicks a behind.
Swans goal! 4th quarter (16:20 remaining) Geelong 8.10 (58) vs Sydney 15.5 (95)
Geelong have had enough opportunities to close the gap this second half but they’ve been profligate in possession. Selwood and Enright rebounding poorly the latest to handover the footy cheaply when the momentum was building.
Rohan misses the initial set shot but follows up with the goal shortly after as the Cats fluff their lines.
Cats goal! 4th quarter (18:30 remaining) Geelong 8.10 (58) vs Sydney 14.4 (88)
Geelong throwing everything at Sydney early in the final term but that tackling pressure is hard to break. That’s one way around it - Stanley takes a huge mark 35m out and kicks the goal.
Margin down to five... goals.
4th quarter (19:30 remaining) Geelong 7.10 (52) vs Sydney 14.4 (88)
Just the six goals for Geelong to make up then...
3QT.
— Geelong Cats (@GeelongCats) September 23, 2016
Our season now amounts to this quarter. Do you believe?#AFLFinals #AFLCatsSwans pic.twitter.com/g0iyd9KcDG
Some three quarter time stats:
Sydney: +16 disposals, + 13 tackles
Geelong: +17 inside-50s
Disposals: Dangerfield 33, J. Selwood 29, Mitchell 24
Tackles: J. Selwood 11, K. Jack 9, Naismith 9
Three quarter time - Swans by 36
A better quarter for Geelong, but more composure in the final third and it could have been even better. Sydney still cruising to the grand final.
3rd quarter (00:50 remaining) Geelong 7.10 (52) vs Sydney 14.4 (88)
Geelong in the ascendancy but Stanley the latest to butcher a clear goalscoring opportunity, misreading Hawkins’ lead. Taylor then has a sniff after good work from Selwood but Jones runs him down like a lioness after a wildebeest. Sydney’s defensive effort is spectacular.
Henderson the latest to suffer a knock.
Cats goal! 3rd quarter (02:50 remaining) Geelong 7.10 (52) vs Sydney 14.4 (88)
Dangerfield snaps another back for Geelong. It was an ugly, energy sapping foray forward, the ball smuggled down the right boundary line until a stoppage in the pocket and the superstar jags one with pure instinct.
Swans goal! 3rd quarter (04:50 remaining) Geelong 6.10 (46) vs Sydney 14.4 (88)
Cats with four of the last five goals, but it hasn’t been an avalanche and they’ve still got a lot of ground to make up.
Even more ground as Sydney’s small forwards continue to wreak havoc with their pressure without the ball and quick steps in possession. Papley profits from an Enright high tackle, and his aim is true.
Cats goal! 3rd quarter (06:40 remaining) Geelong 6.10 (46) vs Sydney 13.4 (82)
Taylor again! Rampe does not like this match-up. Duncan bursts off halfback for Geelong and the clear air and quick ball for Taylor seems him steal a march on his All-Australian opponent. He kicks another. You know, that Matthews fella knows a thing or two about footy.
Dangerfield up to 29 disposals.
Cats goal! 3rd quarter (09:10 remaining) Geelong 5.9 (39) vs Sydney 13.4 (82)
Taylor making a menace of himself in the forward line, busted hand or not. A quick clearance sees the swingman out-mark Rampe and nail a quick goal back for the Cats.
Swans goal! 3rd quarter (09:30 remaining) Geelong 4.9 (33) vs Sydney 13.4 (82)
It’s the second and third efforts that have stood out for Sydney tonight. Papley the latest to lay tackle after tackle until he’s rewarded with a free-kick 30m from goal on a sharp angle. He goes back, splits the uprights, and puts the handbrake on Geelong’s comeback.
3rd quarter (11:00 remaining) Geelong 4.9 (33) vs Sydney 12.4 (76)
Should have been three in a minute for Geelong but Motlop was indecisive as he approached 50 and Franklin ran him down. He’s a puzzler for the Cats, Motlop, all the talent in the world but isn’t yet the player they’d expect him to be.
Cats goal! 3rd quarter (12:30 remaining) Geelong 4.9 (33) vs Sydney 12.4 (76)
Two in a minute! Caddy with the snap after a quick centre clearance. Everyone seemed to think it was touched, apart from the umpires. A flicker of hope for Geelong.
Cats goal! 3rd quarter (12:50 remaining) Geelong 3.9 (27) vs Sydney 12.4 (76)
Taylor has snuck his way on after all! And he’s in the forward line, causing trouble, smuggling a left footed grubber kick that Selwood somehow converts into six-points on the goal-line.
Swans goal! 3rd quarter (13:10 remaining) Geelong 2.9 (21) vs Sydney 12.4 (76)
It might seem academic, but that’s probably the sealer. After a few minutes of the Sherrin bobbling between the arcs the Swans get clear over the back and Naismith snaps adroitly over his left shoulder.
3rd quarter (14:10 remaining) Geelong 2.9 (21) vs Sydney 11.4 (70)
Luke Parker the latest in the wars, jarring his left knee landing in a marking contest.
3rd quarter (15:30 remaining) Geelong 2.9 (21) vs Sydney 11.3 (69)
Not only is Taylor not in Geelong’s forward line, he’s not in defence either as he continues to receive treatment on his injured right hand. To my eyes he looks done for the night with a tracksuit top draped over his slumped shoulders.
3rd quarter (17:10 remaining) Geelong 2.8 (20) vs Sydney 11.3 (69)
Geelong begin the half on the front foot without creating a decent scoring opportunity. The sight of Dangerfield bursting away from his man and belting it inside 50 for a Swans mark is becoming a theme.
3rd quarter (19:10 remaining) Geelong 2.8 (20) vs Sydney 11.3 (69)
So, the best defence in the competition has a massive half-time lead. Leigh Matthews’ advice? Throw Harry Taylor forward and focus on taking marks. As you were at the start of the third quarter though.
What can the Cats do to pull out of this nosedive? Suggestions welcome @JPHowcroft on the Twitter.
Some half time stats (that don’t really paint the picture of dominance we’ve witnessed):
Sydney: +24 disposals, + 3 contested possessions
Geelong: +5 clearances, +5 inside-50s
Disposals: Dangerfield 22, Rampe 17, Mitchell 16, J. Selwood 16
Tackles: J. Selwood 8, K. Jack 8
Half time - Swans by 49
This is a procession.
Cats goal! 2nd quarter (00:10 remaining) Geelong 2.8 (20) vs Sydney 11.3 (69)
Bartel has battled manfully this quarter and he’s rewarded with an impossible goal, hammering a right-footed check-side from the left forward pocket.
Swans goal! 2nd quarter (01:40 remaining) Geelong 1.8 (14) vs Sydney 11.3 (69)
A rare passage of open play in a congested quarter ends with Rohan easing one to Franklin on the lead in the right forward pocket. Big Buddy does the rest.
Harry Taylor going down into the rooms nursing his right hand.
Swapping Henderson and Taylor would be a start. Then again probably pointless if it's not won at the source. #AFLCatsSwans
— Robert Shaw (@shawry_analyst) September 23, 2016
2nd quarter (04:10 remaining) Geelong 1.8 (14) vs Sydney 10.3 (63)
Geelong have stemmed the bleeding this quarter but have offered nothing going forward. Slow ball movement, loopy entries to guarded forwards, and no hint of any runner busting a tackle.
2nd quarter (06:10 remaining) Geelong 1.8 (14) vs Sydney 10.3 (63)
Aliir’s night is over, he’s put the padded jacket on and icing his right knee. Probably doesn’t influence the result, even at this early stage, but it’s a concern for what would be one of the stories of the grand final.
Updated
Swans goal! 2nd quarter (09:10 remaining) Geelong 1.7 (13) vs Sydney 10.3 (63)
TV close up of Andre Agassi yawning, stroking his famous bald pate.
Papley belts one through from outside 50 against the run of play. Lonergan and Enright fail to execute a simple handball. That’s Sydney’s sixth score from a turnover already.
When your mate is making you watch his favourite movie but you just don't care #AFLCatsSwans pic.twitter.com/INgW8T6qzQ
— Will McCloy (@will_mccloy) September 23, 2016
Updated
2nd quarter (10:10 remaining) Geelong 1.7 (13) vs Sydney 9.3 (57)
Cameron Ling suggesting plaintively on TV that the momentum is swinging Geelong’s way. It may no longer be all one-way traffic but the Cats are still second best in most facets, exacerbated by a spell of territorial dominance relieved by a 50m penalty against Hawkins.
2nd quarter (12:10 remaining) Geelong 1.7 (13) vs Sydney 9.2 (56)
Sydney’s pressure is awesome to watch. Tackle after tackle like a red and white swarm of mutant scragging monsters. And when they’re not tackling they’re hassling, spoiling, disrupting. The Swans look fitter, hungrier, and they are in no mood to relax.
Swans goal! 2nd quarter (15:10 remaining) Geelong 1.6 (12) vs Sydney 9.2 (56)
Sydney are destroying Geelong at ground level. McGlynn the pickpocket this time, feeding Hewett to kick another. The Cats backline looks like its playing on ice whenever the ball goes to ground.
Cats goal! 2nd quarter (17:10 remaining) Geelong 1.5 (11) vs Sydney 8.2 (50)
Huge one-on-one mark by Hawkins, holding off Grundy. He kicks truly from 45m out straight in front, and the Cats are finally on the board!
Swans goal! 2nd quarter (18:10 remaining) Geelong 0.5 (5) vs Sydney 8.2 (50)
This is painful for the Cats. A simple cross-field pass on the edge of their own defensive 50 missed by Bartel, sniped by Rohan who runs into the opening goal.
Earlier, a superb tackle by Heeney to start the second quarter, hunting Blicavs down as Geelong took first possession.
Concern over Aliir who went down heavily just before quarter time. Strapping being applied to his knee.
Some quarter time stats:
Sydney: +27 disposals, + 7 contested possessions, +4 inside-50s
Geelong: +3 clearances, + 3 tackles
Disposals: Dangerfield 14, Mitchell 10, Franklin 9
Quarter time - Swans by 39
There could rarely have been a more one-sided opening quarter in preliminary final history. Sydney took Geelong by the scruff of the neck and belted them all over the MCG. This will be some performance from the Cats if they can salvage even pride in the remaining three quarters.
Updated
Cats behind: 1st quarter (0:00 remaining) Geelong 0.5 (5) vs Sydney 7.2 (44)
Geelong should score a couple of times but Blicavs doesn’t have the journey from 50m and Dangerfield can’t break the tackle on the follow up. Sydney rollick down the other end are unlucky not to be paid a mark and the chance to add another goal to the scoreboard.
Geelong’s turn to rebound now and Hawkins marks just before the siren in the right forward pocket but his shot is woeful.
Cats behind: 1st quarter (3:00 remaining) Geelong 0.3 (3) vs Sydney 7.2 (44)
Caddy with a set shot he should make, but he doesn’t. This is the kind of performance, if it continues, that will haunt Geelong’s summer.
Buddy should get a tatt to commemorate this quarter. So so good. #AFLCatsSwans
— theoutersanctum (@outersanctum01) September 23, 2016
Updated
Swans goal! 1st quarter (4:20 remaining) Geelong 0.2 (2) vs Sydney 7.2 (44)
Sydney harder at contests, cleaner in possession and more intense without the footy. This is an annihilation. Cats chasing shadows all over the MCG. They look punch drunk.
Franklin finally snags the goal his performance deserved. Papley marked on the edge of his range, fed his star forward who wallops one on that natural angle of his from the arc and it soars through.
Cats behind: 1st quarter (6:20 remaining) Geelong 0.2 (2) vs Sydney 6.2 (38)
Parker throws Joel Selwood to the ground 30 metres out and from a slight angle the Geelong skipper shanks one horribly wide. This is a nightmare for the Cats.
Swans goal! 1st quarter (7:20 remaining) Geelong 0.1 (1) vs Sydney 6.2 (38)
Is this over already? A sixth goal for the quarter! Heeney this time hitting the contest at pace, busting out of traffic and lobbing one just over Bartel’s dive that dribbles through.
Geelong’s tall forwards are spectators, Sydney taking marks contested and uncontested at will.
1st quarter (8:20 remaining) Geelong 0.1 (1) vs Sydney 5.2 (32)
Is this the result of two weeks of the past three off? Geelong just don’t look switched on and they’re getting belted all over the park, despite Dangerfield racking up double figures in disposals already.
Swans goal! 1st quarter (10:50 remaining) Geelong 0.0 (0) vs Sydney 5.2 (32)
This is getting silly. Five unanswered for Sydney! Tippett again, but once more it’s the midfield grunt followed by Franklin’s teamwork.
Swans goal! 1st quarter (11:20 remaining) Geelong 0.0 (0) vs Sydney 4.2 (26)
Like a knife through butter. Sydney’s midfield is blitzing Geelong. Another clearance, another expert entry to an unmarked forward, and another goal. Exhibition stuff from the Swans.
Updated
Swans goal! 1st quarter (12:20 remaining) Geelong 0.0 (0) vs Sydney 3.2 (20)
Franklin looks a little proppy after crumpling under bodies in a marking contest. Buddy has been outstanding in these early stages, pushing up the ground and delivering with composure inside 50.
Geelong can’t find any fluidity in possession, missing targets and kicking to low percentage contests. Luke Parker makes them pay, sneaking out the back of a stoppage courtesy of some brilliance by Tom Mitchell to kick Sydney’s third. The Swans blowing the Cats away.
Updated
Swans goal: 1st quarter (14:20 remaining) Geelong 0.0 (0) vs Sydney 2.2 (14)
Ezra Finkelstein asks: “Am I alone in thinking that Cam Guthrie is the most underrated player in the league?” The Geelong utility has certainly elevated his game this season but he’s an onlooker as Sydney rush forward again, this time finding Tippett isolated 40m out and the big former Crow kicks the second major of the night.
Sydney are known for their fast starts, and they’re delivering again tonight.
Swans behind: 1st quarter (16:20 remaining) Geelong 0.0 (0) vs Sydney 1.2 (8)
Henderson is starting forward for Geelong, and he’s attracted Rampe’s attention.
The Cats have been inside 50 a couple of times but they’ve been slow deliveries with plenty of Swans around to cover.
Sydney are so threatening on the rebound, McGlynn crumbing at pace and kicking a point from outside 50.
Swans behind: 1st quarter (17:40 remaining) Geelong 0.0 (0) vs Sydney 1.1 (7)
Sydney dominating early on, finding plenty of clear air in possession. Franklin is a threat pushing up the ground and a couple of testing inside 50s pays dividends with Kieren Jack eventually on the receiving end of a pass in space about 40m out. His set shot drifts wide when a goal looked the likelier outcome.
Swans goal! 1st quarter (19:20 remaining) Geelong 0.0 (0) vs Sydney 1.0 (6)
Fast start for Sydney and it’s that small forward line causing trouble. Franklin brought the ball to ground, Papley hassled and McGlynn snapped truly for the opening goal.
Opening Bounce!
We’re underway at the MCG!
The toss happened. Someone won. Nobody cared less.
Anthem time. Belted out by nobody, mumbled by a few, Josh Caddy and Patrick Dangerfield most notably.
Don’t forget, you can join in throughout the night, and I encourage you to do so. Email me at jonathan.howcroft.freelance@guardian.co.uk or tweet me @JPHowcroft.
Tony Corke, sometimes of this parish, has crunched the numbers, and they’ve come up favouring Geelong.
MoS' view on the Prelims is up (and includes a general look at MoSSBODS' forecast history in Finals vs H&A)https://t.co/XYW41DSGUm pic.twitter.com/qx7HqV6YaZ
— Tony Corke (@MatterOfStats) September 20, 2016
Chris Scott’s being interviewed for TV and he has that pretend confidence about him. You know, the kind you have when you’re underage trying to get served at a pub. You want to give off the air of normality but you can see the knees knocking if you look closely enough.
Now the Cats are out. Blue and white hooped guernseys and socks with blue shorts. White boots the predominant colour choice for Geelong, which doesn’t endear them to me. Plain black next time please.
Cue pin drop. #AFLFinals #AFLCatsSwans #GreatnessAwaits pic.twitter.com/sUkxVn30Nt
— Geelong Cats (@GeelongCats) September 23, 2016
The Swans run out on the MCG looking every inch The Bloods in their all red uniform.
C7 pull up a shareable stat as the banner’s ripped apart - Sydney have won almost every opening quarter this season, Geelong almost every final term. Worth keeping an eye on if neither side kicks clear.
Bring it on @sydneyswans 👊 #AFLFinals pic.twitter.com/YidmXEGqx3
— AFL (@AFL) September 23, 2016
Updated
Savour Dennis while you can.
Dennis & Bruce prepare for their final Friday night call together. @7AFL tonight on @Channel7 & @7mate.#AFLFinals pic.twitter.com/TrcHzMHMhl
— Joshua Kay (@js_kay) September 23, 2016
Incredibly, these teams have only met three times in finals before, the Swans winning all three. The last time was back in 2005 when Nick Davis did something you might be familiar with.
Sydney 22
To the surprise of many, Sydney have also avoided any late changes, meaning injury doubts Gary Rohan, Kurt Tippett and Zak Jones all start.
B: Dane Rampe, Aliir Aliir, Nick Smith
HB: Harrison Marsh, Heath Grundy, Jeremy Laidler
C: Jake Lloyd, Josh P. Kennedy, Isaac Heeney
HF: George Hewett, Lance Franklin, Luke Parker
F: Tom Papley, Kurt Tippett, Ben McGlynn
FOL: Sam Naismith, Dan Hannebery, Kieren Jack
I/C: Zak Jones, Tom Mitchell, Xavier Richards, Gary Rohan
One to watch: Sydney’s conveyor belt of composed debutants has amazed the competition in 2016 but this will be their greatest challenge yet. Aliir Aliir in particular has shone. The 22-year old’s reading of the play, physicality and cleanliness in possession have secured him a place in the Swans backline and he could be there for a decade. He’s likely to come under the most severe aerial bombardment of his short AFL career tonight though and his smooth start to league football will be tested.
Geelong 22
The Cats will start as listed, which means Lachie Henderson and Jed Bews come into the side that beat Hawthorn, in place of Tom Ruggles (dropped) and Daniel Menzel (adductor injury).
B: Corey Enright, Tom Lonergan, Lachie Henderson
HB: Jake Kolodjashnij, Harry Taylor, Andrew Mackie
C: Cameron Guthrie, Joel Selwood, Scott Selwood
HF: Steven Motlop, Rhys Stanley, Mark Blicavs
F: Lincoln McCarthy, Tom Hawkins, Jimmy Bartel
FOL: Zac Smith, Patrick Dangerfield, Mitch Duncan
I/C: Jed Bews, Josh Caddy, Josh Cowan, Sam Menegola
One to watch: Adam Cooney suggested today that Sam Menegola is now Geelong’s third best midfielder. It’s been a remarkable end to the season for the 24-year old who only made his AFL debut in round 18 and is already at his third club. The Cats’ engine room will be under severe pressure tonight and if Menegola holds his own it will go a long way to helping his side over the line.
Preamble
Ok, now we’ve got that out the way, we can get on with the task in hand.
Second versus first. The 2011 premiers against the best of 2012. The club with the likely Brownlow Medalist against the one with the AFL Rising Star. Geelong and Sydney are bona fide modern heavyweights.
The Cats, with home state advantage and plenty of rest after just one match in the past month, start as favourites. The Swans, beaten up by the Giants and luckless with injury against the Crows, have flown interstate off a six day break. Theirs is a tall order.
Quite literally based on the 22 Chris Scott has listed. Tom Hawkins will straighten up Geelong with his bulk up forward, and around him Rhys Stanley, Zac Smith, Marc Blicavs and Lachie Henderson will all spend time forcing Sydney defenders to play with their chins up. Much will be asked of Heath Grundy, Aliir Aliir and Dane Rampe against a side with the most number of marks inside 50 for the year.
The opposite is the case at the other end of the ground where Geelong’s defence matches up tall against Sydney’s forward line. Lance Franklin’s duel with Tom Lonergan will be eye catching but could prove a sideshow compared to the involvement of Ben McGlynn and Tom Papley at ground level. The recalled Jed Bews has been picked to perform a vital job.
In between we know what to expect. The Swans bat deeper than anybody in midfield but the Cats possess the most dynamic one-two combination. Some tantalising head to heads are bound to materialise over the course of the night.
It’s preliminary final weekend, kicking off with two evenly matched sides in front of a packed MCG. If you’re not excited by now, check your pulse because something might be wrong.
I SEE IT BUT I DON'T BELIEVE IT!
Conditions are perfect for footy. It’s still, cool, and the MCG looks a picture under lights.
Prelim footy time! #mcg #aflcatsswans #aflfinals https://t.co/4vp9EnjB2B pic.twitter.com/zDCztnLWLx
— Marc D'Cruze (@marcdcruze) September 23, 2016
Updated
Jonathan will be with you shortly but while you wait, why not check out his preview of this game and tomorrow’s tantalising clash between the Bulldogs and the Giants.
