If you're not between the ages of 14 and 19, a teacher or a parent, today might look a bit like groundhog day. The procedure for the publication of GCSE results for 600,000 pupils is pretty much the same as for A-levels a week ago: we'll bring you the full story at 10am, tables of the results by lunchtime and all the other news, from the six-year-olds who got a GCSE to the headteachers calling for the exams to be scrapped.
We are expecting the pass rate to level out but the number of A and A* awarded will creep up, meaning we can expect another airing for the questions about standards that were asked about A-levels last week.
But there are subtle but important differences between today's story and last week's A-levels, as education ministers pointed out last night. Whereas A-levels are all about claims of dumbing down and the problems of top universities choosing from hundreds of A-grade students, today's story is about 150,000 pupils who will, after today, turn their back on education forever. The UK has one of the worst worst staying-on rates after compulsory education of all economically developed countries.
The government has launched an advice line to provide school leavers with information about staying on and introduced a £30 a week grant to make it more worth their while. But by the end of the day, expect calls for them to make it really worth pupils' while by reforming GCSEs. GCSEs involve huge amounts of coursework and many exams, they are academically focused and don't really give anyone who wants to learn more vocationally a chance.
Donald MacLeod, higher education editor, will analyse the results and the future of GCSEs on EducationGuardian.co.uk.
