The British & Irish Lions had a farewell dinner on Sunday, a rallying cry before they flew to New Zealand the following day, although not everyone believes they will fare well.
“I am not sure Warren Gatland has the playbook and flexibility for this challenge,” the 2005 Lions wing Shane Horgan wrote in his newspaper column. “I would be more confident if any of the other three home nation coaches were in charge. So I ask myself: is Gatland the weakest link on the tour?”
Gatland, the former Waikato and (uncapped) New Zealand hooker is on his third Lions tour and second as head coach. “It is going to be very tough for them,” the England head coach, Eddie Jones, said. “They have picked a certain style of team based on the influence of the Welsh coaches. I think they are looking to attack like Wales with big, gainline runners and not much ball movement. You struggle to beat the All Blacks like that.”
Jones later said his remark was made in jest “to make the podcast [on which he made the comments] popular”, but he may have received a nudge from his employer, which has a 25% stake in the Lions. A year ago, after beating Wales in a friendly at Twickenham, Jones said that Australia, England’s opponents that summer, would pose more of an attacking threat and last November he had another dig after Wales needed a late drop-goal to beat Japan.
Gatland has become defined by the style that proved successful for Wales between 2011 and 2013, when they reached a World Cup semi-final, losing by a point having played with 14 men for over an hour, and won the Six Nations in consecutive years, the first garnished with a grand slam. It was personified by Jamie Roberts, a centre bigger than the second rows on the successful Lions tour to New Zealand 1971, bullocking his way over the gainline, in-your-face defence and supreme conditioning. It worked for the 2013 Lions in Australia.
It was reminiscent of the way New Zealand used to play when, according to Carwyn James, the Lions coach in 1971, “They love the perspiration but were not all that impressed by the inspiration. On the training field they work terribly hard. They run and they run, there is no ball near the place. The sweat pours off, but they are not learning skills”.
Gatland has not established himself as one of the leading coaches in the professional era by being inflexible. His Wasps side that dominated the Premiership in the 2000s, and conquered Europe, was very different to Wales, not least because they had a playmaking outside-half in Alex King.
What Gatland has been consistently about is masking weakness, which is why he was so excited by the rise of Rhys Priestland in the 2011 World Cup, a reactive outside-half who played what was in front of him and brought another side out of Roberts. Within a couple of years, Priestland’s form and confidence had evaporated and he was replaced by Dan Biggar, a bullish No10 better equipped at getting the best out of himself rather than those outside him.
Biggar is in New Zealand but starts the tour behind Owen Farrell and Johnny Sexton, two No10s adept at getting the ball wide. The notion that Gatland will go to his homeland armed with an ancient gameplan that he will stick to rigidly not only ignores his record in 20 years of coaching but also the way Wales played in New Zealand last summer.
They were whitewashed in a series which the scores suggest was one-sided: 39-21, 36-22 and 46-6. The third was a blow-out after a full-on year that started with World Cup preparation, but Wales led after an hour in the first and were level at half-time in the second. New Zealand made their much stronger bench count, an advantage they will not enjoy over the Lions.
Wales did not employ Warrenball. There were elements of it, not least quickly flying up in defence to prevent the ball from reaching the outside backs, a favourite tactic of England’s which the Lions are sure to adopt. A question for Gatland and his team is whether to play Sexton and Farrell at No10 and No12, or considering them both at outside-half and opt for a more physical inside-centre such Robbie Henshaw or Ben Te’o, players who can pass under pressure.
What was striking about Wales in the first Test last year was the relish they showed for counterattacking. They had tended to be a side that returned kicks and chased but at Eden Park, Liam Williams caused New Zealand problems by looking for space and linking with George North. As Sam Warburton, the captain then and this summer, said after the match: “The message was that we could not come out here and play safe.” Say it again, Sam.
The Lions have Williams and North together with Stuart Hogg, Anthony Watson, Tommy Seymour and Jack Nowell, pace aplenty. Gatland’s plan will not be solely for territory but for players to sense opportunity. Of course they will have a physical edge: there is no hope of beating New Zealand without one, knocking runners over in midfield, going in hard at the breakdown and working the All Blacks in the set pieces.
The Lions will not play as Wales did last season when, with Gatland on sabbatical with the Lions, they failed to build on the tactical gains made in New Zealand and lapsed into old, defensive ways: they talked boldly but did not act so. They were conservative in selection and tactics, which – as the Scarlets were to show in the Pro12 – they need not have been.
James said in his review of the 1971 tour “the coach can take players to the conscious level”. He referred to a try scored by Barry John against New Zealand Universities when after a planned drop at goal had to be aborted, he jinked left, right and left again, leaving a trail of defenders in his wake, to score under the posts.
“This is poetry, flair and imagination,” James added. To him, the successful coach did not stop at the conscious level but allowed players to exploit innate talent. That is the task for Gatland in, as he well knows, the most testing of environments. If he can release skills some players may not realise they possess, while keeping the fundamentals in place, his Lions will give themselves a chance of going two better than Wales.
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