Investor Gary Black of The Future Fund LLC said on Monday that Elon Musk-led Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) shares could drop below the IPO price of $135/share in the coming days.
SPCX’s Share Lock-Up
In a post on X, the investor said that the company’s shares will likely fall below “its $135 IPO price as 20% of locked shares become free in early-August.”
Read Also: Elon Musk Says SpaceX Will Fly Orbital Data Centers Next Year—Jim Chanos Isn't Buying It
The investor is pointing to the IPO’s structure that will allow insiders, excluding Musk and other majority shareholders, to sell up to 20% of the shares owned by them following SpaceX’s second-quarter earnings call, according to a report by The Motley Fool.
The report said insiders can also sell up to 7% of their shares on the 70th, 90th, 105th, 120th and 135th days after the company’s public debut.
Another 28% of shares can be sold following SpaceX’s third-quarter earnings call. An additional 10% of shares can be sold if SPCX trades 30% higher than its IPO price for five out of 10 days in a row.
Gary Black Decries Tesla Valuation
The investor also lamented Tesla Inc.‘s (NASDAQ:TSLA) valuation. “As much as I love $TSLA the company, it’s difficult to support the valuation,” with the investor saying that its price-to-earnings ratio was 209 times compared to earnings-per-share growth of 35%.
He also called out bullish Tesla supporters who “ignore valuation” concerns as “unsupervised autonomy becomes commoditized,” the investor said.
As much as I love $TSLA the company, it’s difficult to support the valuation (2026 P/E 209x vs +35% long-term EPS growth, 6x PEG), which remains excessive vs every other Mag 8 name (avg 2x PEG). Most TSLA promoters on X choose to ignore valuation in any discussion of $TSLA as… pic.twitter.com/5ggQ2zi9qo
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) July 13, 2026
Black had earlier said that the company’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology was not enough to justify its valuation, arguing that institutional investors would “avoid the stock.”
The investor had also said that despite Tesla’s second-quarter 2026 delivery figures largely exceeding Wall Street expectations as the automaker delivered over 480,000 units during the second quarter, Tesla’s stock tumbled because of the Iran war-driven gas price volatility.
Benzinga Edge Rankings show SpaceX fails to provide a favorable price trend in the Short, Medium and Long term.
Price Action: SpaceX shares were down 0.97% to $143.90 during pre-market trading on Monday.
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