The Future Fund‘s Gary Black questioned retail investors buying the dip in Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) on Wednesday, saying the optimism overlooks a massive post-IPO share unlock that could more than double the stock’s public float.
Black Questions Retail Optimism
“This makes no sense with 911.5M new SPCX shares potentially entering SPCX’s float tomorrow, which will double its size,” Black said in a post on X.
He shared a MarketWatch report citing Vanda Research that showed individual investors bought a net $22 million of SpaceX shares during the first hour of Wednesday’s trading, even as institutional investors sold following the company’s first earnings as a publicly traded company.
This makes no sense with 911.5M new $SPCX shares potentially entering SPCX’s float tomorrow, which will double its size.
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) August 5, 2026
Bloomberg
Retail investors are buying the dip on SpaceX's stock before more shares flood the market.
▪Retail investors were buying the dip in SpaceX…
Lockup Expiration Looms
The upcoming lockup expiration covers only about 7% of SpaceX’s approximately 13.09 billion shares outstanding, with most of the newly eligible shares held by executives, employees, and early investors.
The release will more than double SpaceX’s freely tradable float, with further share unlocks planned through June next year.
The stock has fallen about 52% from its post-IPO peak of about $225 reached just days after its June debut.
Last month, Black said the stock could fall below $100 in the coming weeks, citing an excessive valuation and weakening sentiment toward AI-related stocks.
AI Spending Overshadows Earnings Beat
SpaceX shares have been under pressure this week despite the company beating Wall Street estimates in the second quarter, as investors focused on $18.4 billion in capital expenditures, most of which was directed toward AI infrastructure.
Tech analyst Dan Ives told Bloomberg that the company’s heavy AI investment is “a necessary buildout” as SpaceX pursues its long-term vision.
Price Action: Shares fell 13.61% on Tuesday to close at $108.27 and pared some losses in extended trading to gain 1.61%.
Benzinga edge rankings indicate SPCX has a negative price trend across the short, medium, and long term.
Read Also: Nvidia’s Next AI Gold Rush Is Here, And It Already Controls 92% Of It
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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