Prominent investor and a well-known Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) critic, Gary Black, has highlighted two potential positive catalysts for the company’s stock despite his valuation concerns.
Tesla Q3 Deliveries, Robotaxi Progress May Be Positive
On a post on X, Black expressed his cautious stance on Tesla’s valuation but pointed out two potential positive catalysts for the company’s stock in the near future. He mentioned the third-quarter deliveries and the potential removal of safety monitors in Tesla’s robotaxis as the two catalysts.
Check out the current price of TSLA stock here.
As a first catalyst, the analyst stated that Tesla’s Q3 deliveries (estimated at 470K vs. a consensus of 432K) should surge ahead of the $7,500 EV credit expiring on September 30, likely pulling volume from Q4.
Secondly, he stated that CEO Elon Musk's prediction that safety monitors will be removed from robotaxis in Austin and the Bay Area by year-end could signal confidence in autonomous tech and pave the way for market expansion in 2026. Black calls this a “material positive catalyst.” He feels this is achievable because, as per his estimates, Tesla operates no more than 150 robotaxis across the two test markets, all of which can be monitored remotely.
Black also mentioned that the launch of a more affordable Model Y in the fourth quarter post the expiry of $7,500 EV credit, might not necessarily be a positive catalyst for Tesla unless it significantly expands the company’s total addressable market (TAM).
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Declining EV Market Share, Autonomy Concerns Cloud Tesla
Black’s cautious approach to Tesla’s valuation comes at a time when the company is facing challenges in the EV market. Earlier this month, it was reported that Tesla’s U.S. EV market share had dipped below 40% for the first time since 2017, indicating a decline in the company’s sales and market dominance.
Moreover, Tesla’s ability to achieve Level 4 and Level 5 autonomy has been questioned by industry experts, including Ross Gerber, who believes that hardware issues need to be addressed before Tesla can achieve full autonomy.
Speaking of valuation, Elon Musk stated that scaling FSD and Optimus are key to Tesla's Master Plan Part 4, predicting that Optimus will account for 80% of Tesla's future value.
Meanwhile, Tesla has quietly changed the meaning of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology following the announcement of CEO Elon Musk‘s $1 trillion compensation package. Interestingly, one milestone for Tesla's pay package includes reaching 10 million active FSD subscriptions and deploying 1 million robotaxis, with a clear definition of what FSD entails.
Benzinga's Edge Rankings place Tesla in the 62nd percentile for quality and the 86th percentile for momentum, reflecting its strong performance in both areas. Check the detailed report here.
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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
