Retailers are navigating a challenging landscape marked by shifting consumer preferences and unpredictable weather patterns, which impact seasonal sales. In this environment, companies like Gap, Inc. (NYSE:GAP) are striving to adapt their strategies to maintain growth and profitability.
Gap shares are trading higher on Friday, after the company reported second-quarter in-line revenue of $3.73 billion on Thursday and EPS of 57 cents, topping the consensus of 55 cents.
Gap expects third-quarter revenue to be between $3.86 billion and $3.90 billion versus estimates of $3.91 billion, according to Benzinga Pro. The company also affirmed its full-year revenue guidance of $15.25 billion to $15.40 billion versus estimates of $15.33 billion.
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JPMorgan analyst Matthew R. Boss reiterated an Overweight rating on the stock, raising the price target from $29 to $32.
Boss writes that CFO Katrina O'Connell attributed a sluggish start in May and June to cold, wet weather that muted seasonal demand—leaving consolidated comps roughly flat—before momentum rebounded to an estimated mid-single-digit increase in July as fall drops and back-to-school products hit stores.
For the quarter, same-store sales rose about 1%, with brand-level results showing Gap at +4% and Old Navy at +2%, Banana Republic outperforming at +4%, and Athleta lagging at −9%.
On Boss's math, close to 90% of the portfolio is now delivering low-to-mid single-digit comps, powered by efforts to "reignite" marketing and merchandising at Gap, "reassert" category leadership in Denim/Active/Kids/Baby at Old Navy, and "re-establish" product and storytelling at Banana Republic.
Boss estimates July/August two-year stacked comps in the high single digits.
If that pace holds through September and October, the analyst expects third-quarter same-store sales to potentially be in the high single digits—more than twice the roughly 3% outlook.
Boss says Gap is at an inflection point under CEO Richard Dickson's playbook, which emphasizes sharper merchandising and marketing across all four brands.
The analyst sees a path to low- to mid-single-digit sales growth and annual operating-margin expansion back toward 8%–10%.
The drivers, Boss adds, are SG&A leverage—where efficiencies more than offset ongoing "strategic reinvestments"—and modest gross-margin gains from ROD leverage given sub-1% revenue growth after roughly 800 store closures since before the pandemic.
The analyst notes that capital allocation could yield ~$650 million in annual net free cash flow, enabling buybacks that would add around 4% to EPS and support ~14% EPS growth, resulting in a mid- to high-teens total shareholder return profile.
GAP Price Action: Gap shares were up 1.22% at $21.94 at the time of publication on Friday. The stock is trading within its 52-week range of $16.98 to $29.29, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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