Games Boise State Fans Should Be Monitoring In Week 5
Broncos are in the driver’s seat for a New Year’s Six bid.
Contact/Follow @RajaBleedsBlue & @MWCwire
Keep an eye on these during the bye week.
Boise State enters their first bye week standing at 4-0 while being recognized as the 16th best team in the country. Boise State also got a boost after Central Florida lost on the road to Pittsburgh which cleared the only Group of 5 team ranked higher than the Broncos. While there is a long way to go in the young 2019 college football season, we are starting to see which teams are strong and which teams are not so much.
Rankings
Boise State moves up from 20th in both the AP Poll and the USA Today’s Coaches Poll to 16th in the AP and 15th in the Coaches Poll. Jeff Sagarin’s computer rankings have the Broncos as the 25th best team in college football. For this article, we will be using the AP Poll rankings.
Mountain West Conference Standings
Conference play kicked off last week. This week will feature four more conference games.
Here is a list of games to watch this weekend that could have implications for Boise State:
Thursday Night
Navy at Memphis (-10.5)
6 PM MT, ESPN
ESPN FPI Win Projector: Memphis 81%
Bronco Rooting Interest: Navy
Both Navy and Memphis of the American Athletic Conference are undefeated. While it is very unlikely, it is theoretically possible that Memphis can jump Boise State if both go undefeated as the Tigers are currently lurking right outside both polls.
Friday Night
San Jose State at Air Force (-18.5)
6 PM MT, CBS Sports Network
ESPN FPI Win Projector: Air Force 90%
Bronco Rooting Interest: San Jose State
The Broncos face the Spartans later in the year. San Jose State stunned Arkansas on the road last week and will see if they can score another huge victory at Air Force. Another conference loss for Air Force would make it unlikely that they will be able to win the Mountain Division.
#12 Penn State (-7) at Maryland
6 PM MT, FOX Sports 1
ESPN FPI Win Projector: Penn State 71%
Bronco Rooting Interest: Maryland
Maryland is the home underdog. If the Terrapins can score the victory, Boise State will move ahead of the Nittany Lions in the Polls.
Arizona State at #15 California (-3)
8:30 PM MT, ESPN
ESPN FPI Win Projector: California 61%
Bronco Rooting Interest: Arizona State
California is one spot ahead of Boise State in the AP Poll. A loss to the visiting Sun Devils will drop the Golden Bears behind the Broncos.
Saturday
Brigham Young (-3) at Toledo
10 AM MT, ESPN+
ESPN FPI Win Projector: Toledo 55%
Bronco Rooting Interest: Brigham Young
BYU has been something like Jekyll and Hyde this year and stand at 2-2 for the season. If BYU can string together a few wins, they may be ranked when they host Boise State in 4 weeks and set up a national marquee matchup.
Middle Tennessee at #14 Iowa (-23.5)
10 AM MT, ESPN2
ESPN FPI Win Projector: Iowa 95%
Bronco Rooting Interest: Middle Tennessee
Probably not worth paying too much attention to, but if Middle Tennessee can pull off an improbable upset it will lead to the Broncos moving up another spot in the rankings.
#18 Virginia at #10 Notre Dame (-11)
1:30 PM MT, NBC
ESPN FPI Win Projector: Notre Dame 90%
Bronco Rooting Interest: Virginia
If Notre Dame wins, they will stay above Boise State in the rankings. If Virginia wins, they will likely move ahead of Boise State, but both the Cavaliers and Broncos will leap Notre Dame. So this matchup, regardless of result, will likely not affect Boise State’s poll position but it would be amusing to watch the Irish drop another game.
#21 Southern California at #17 Washington (-10)
1:30 PM MT, Fox
ESPN FPI Win Projector: Washington 72%
Bronco Rooting Interest: ?
Our old friend Chris Petersen is hosting the Trojans this week. A win for either USC or UW would likely move them ahead of the idle Broncos in the polls.
Coastal Carolina at Appalachian State (-16)
1:30 PM MT, ESPN+
ESPN FPI Win Projector: Appalachian State 80%
Bronco Rooting Interest: Coastal Carolina
Appalachian State is one of the few remaining undefeated Group of 5 teams left. While it is not realistic that App State could jump Boise State if they both went undefeated, a 13-0 App State may be ahead of a 1 loss MWC Champ if that scenario would come to pass for the NY6 race.
Southern Methodist (-7.5) at South Florida
2 PM MT, ESPNU
ESPN FPI Win Projector: Southern Methodist 80%
Bronco Rooting Interest: South Florida
Similar to App State, SMU is undefeated for the season. The Mustangs are coming off an impressive road victory against TCU. SMU will play both Navy and Memphis later in the season.
Cincinnati (-3) at Marshall
3 PM MT
ESPN FPI Win Projector: Cincinnati 56%
Bronco Rooting Interest: Marshall
Marshall lost to Boise State in week 2 but still looks like a good team. Beating Cincinnati, a strong team themselves, will be a nice boost to Boise State’s strength of schedule metrics.
Connecticut at #22 Central Florida (-42.5)
5 PM MT, ESPN2
ESPN FPI Win Projector: Central Florida 99%
Bronco Rooting Interest: Connecticut
Formerly a rivalry game known as the Civil CONFLict, this game doesn’t provide much competition these days. An unlikely UConn win would help the Mountain West by removing UCF as a threat from the G5 NY6 berth.
Alabama-Birmingham (-3) at Western Kentucky
5 PM MT, ESPN+
ESPN FPI Win Projector: Western Kentucky 61%
Bronco Rooting Interest: Western Kentucky
Similar to Appalachian State, UAB is undefeated in Conference USA but not a real threat to Boise State. A loss would eliminate them as a peripheral threat, however. ESPN’s FPI projection likes Western Kentucky to score the win at home.
Colorado State at Utah State (-20)
5:30 PM MT, CBS Sports Network
ESPN FPI Win Projector: Utah State 90%
Bronco Rooting Interest: ?
Two divisional foes face off in this one. An unlikely Colorado State win would give Boise State a bit more breathing room in winning the Mountain Division since Utah State is considered the strongest contender to the Broncos.
On the other hand, if Utah State is able to go on a winning streak, they may able to get into the rankings and create a marquee matchup with Boise State when the two schools face-off near the end of the year.
North Carolina State at Florida State (-6)
5:30 PM MT, ACC Network
ESPN FPI Win Projector: Florida State 72%
Bronco Rooting Interest: Florida State
A Florida State win would give more credence to Boise State’s signature win of the year. The Seminoles are currently 2-2.
Nevada-Las Vegas at Wyoming (-11)
6 PM MT, ESPNU
ESPN FPI Win Projector: Wyoming 78%
Bronco Rooting Interest: Nevada-Las Vegas
Similar to the San Jose State vs Air Force matchup; a UNLV win would hurt Wyoming’s chances to win the Mountain Division. Wyoming is 3-1 however and if they are able to keep winning, the Cowboys may find themselves ranked when they square off with the Broncos in 7 weeks.
Washington State at #19 Utah (-5.5)
8 PM MT, Fox Sports 1
ESPN FPI Win Projector: Utah 64%
Bronco Rooting Interest: Washington State
The Utes are just a few spots behind the Broncos in the polls. A win over a very good WSU team may push Utah ahead of Boise State.
Hawai’i at Nevada (-2)
8:30 PM MT, ESPN2
ESPN FPI Win Projector: Hawai’i 61%
Bronco Rooting Interest: Hawai’i
Hawai’i stands at 3-1 for the year and the Rainbow Warriors come to the Blue Turf in 3 weeks. A Hawai’i win over a solid Nevada squad could make that game a bit more interesting. Plus, rooting for Nevada to lose seems the appropriate position for Boise State fans to take.
