Game Day Preview: No. 21 Boise State goes on the road to face San Jose State
Broncos look to get back on track vs. San Jose State
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Boise State is done with the byes
Boise State entered the second bye week on a down note after suffering their first loss of the season. However, the Broncos still stand at 6-1 and are ranked in both major polls. While the Broncos and head coach Bryan Harsin have not made an official statement yet, the expectation is that starting quarterback Hank Bachmeier, will return to the field after a 1 game injury absence.
While Boise State did tumble a bit in the rankings after their loss and the path to a big money New Year’s Six bowl game has become more challenging, the primary goal of securing a spot in the conference championship game remains very attainable for the Broncos. Winning this game on the road against the Spartans will push Boise State to 4-0 in the conference with 4 more conference games remaining.
San Jose State is returning home after a tough win on the road against Army and is set to celebrate their homecoming this weekend. Boise State on the other hand is rested and angry after spending the last 2 weeks thinking about their only loss of the year and will look to take some frustration out against the Spartans.
Date: November 2, 2019
Where: CEFCU Stadium in San Jose, CA
When: 8:30 PM, MST
Spread: Boise State -17
ESPN FPI Win Predictor: Boise State 90% win probability
Weather: Sunny with a high of 78°F and no chance of rain and slight wind. Sunset at 7:08 PM, MST
How to Watch: CBS Sports Network
Stream: FuboTV – Get a seven-day free trial
Head to Head Record: Boise State 13-0
Previous Meeting: Boise State 45, San Jose State 31 on November 6, 2016 in Boise, ID
WAC Conference Titles: Boise State 8, San Jose State 0
MWC Division Titles: Boise State 3, San Jose State 0
MWC Conference Titles: Boise State 3, San Jose State 0
Spartan/Bronco History Rewind
The first time Boise State and San Jose State faced off was in 1978, a 30-15 Bronco victory on a green natural grass field in Boise. However, they would soon become conference foes in the Western Athletic Conference in 2001. Boise State had joined the WAC after stops in the Big Sky and Big West whereas San Jose State had been a long time member of the Big West (and its predecessor the Pacific Coast Athletic Association) from 1969 to 1996 when they joined the WAC themselves. Boise State owns a 10-0 record against San Jose during their time as WAC opponents but a thrilling double overtime contest took place in San Jose during the 2004 season when the Broncos escaped with a 56-49 victory.
Boise State joined the Mountain West Conference in 2011 and San Jose State would follow in 2013. The Broncos are 2-0 against the Spartans as MWC opponents.
San Jose State Season Rewind
The Spartans had finished with 3 wins in 2017 and 2018, combined… but head coach Brent Brennan has taken a major step forward in his third year and now has the Spartans standing at 4-4 and eyeing a potential bowl game. San Jose State has been to only eight bowl games in their 70 year football history in division 1 and have not been to the post season since 2015.
While Brennan has done a good job on the sidelines, quarterback Josh Love deserves a tremendous amount of credit for leading the Spartans on the field this year. The senior signal caller has put up gaudy stats and is firmly in the conversation for a spot on the Mountain West all-conference team.
San Jose State has notched impressive road victories against Army and SEC opponent Arkansas but have faltered against conference opponents such as Air Force, Nevada, and San Diego State. A home victory versus a ranked Boise State team would give the Spartans instant credibility as a legitimate force in the conference.
Boise State Offense Update
Boise State has posted up averages of 470 total yards per game and 35 points in 2019. These are both big numbers but the Broncos took a step backwards against BYU with only 360 yards and 25 points. With Hank Bachmeier poised to take the reigns back from Chase Cord, one should expect that the offense to pick back up. Also, the running back position is dealing with injury issues as Robert Mahone has been described with the standard update from the Bronco coaching staff that he is not out for the year but is not certain for San Jose State.
True freshman running back George Holani has done quite well this year and has a chance to continue the 10-year streak of 1,000 yard rushers that Boise State is currently holding on to.
CT Thomas, Khalil Shakir, and John Bates have led a strong receiving core this season. The offensive line continued their trend of recent years of starting the season off poorly while also dealing with injury issues in the early portion of the 2019 campaign.
However, the line has slowly rounded into form as they have gotten more healthy. Senior John Molchon and junior Ezra Cleveland anchor the strong left side of the line and Cleveland, in particular, has played well. He is considered a potential early entry for the NFL draft.
Boise State Defense Update
Boise State ranks 29th in the NCAA with 330 yards allowed per game on average. The Broncos have been stout in making adjustments in the second half and shutting down opponents after the intermission. Boise State is balanced in strength in both stopping the run and covering the pass.
Starting safeties Kekoa Nawahine and DeAndre Pierce have been dealing with injuries and their statuses is not evident at the moment but if both can play, it will be a huge boost to the defense. The veteran senior David Moa and superstar Curtis Weaver lead a talented defensive line and it will be necessary for them to get pressure on San Jose State and quarterback Josh Love as the rest of the defense settles in.
Rankings
Boise State did not move much in either polls during the bye week. The Broncos moved from 22nd to 21 in the AP Poll and stoodfast at 21st in the USA Today Coaches Poll. San Jose State is not receiving votes in either poll. Jeff Sagarin’s computer rankings have the Broncos checking in as the 27th best team in division 1 football and the Spartans find themselves at 118th.
GAMES TO WATCH
Army at Air Force (-14) at 1:30 PM MT on CBS Sports Network
ESPN FPI Predictor: Air Force win probability at 88%
Air Force is coming off of a strong win over Utah State and will look to continue their momentum against rival Army in a non-conference game to try to move to 7 wins.
UNLV at Colorado State (-8.5) at 1:30 PM MT
ESPN FPI Predictor: Colorado State win probability at 70%
While it’s unlikely that Colorado State can play themselves back into contention for a Mountain West title, they did score a big road victory against Fresno State last week. UNLV meanwhile is still searching for its first conference win of the year.
BYU at Utah State (-3.5) at 8 PM MT on ESPN2
ESPN FPI Predictor: Utah State win probability at 51%
BYU will face off against another Mountain West foe, this time an in-state rival in Utah State. The Aggies were pummeled by Air Force last week and need to circle the wagons in this contest.
New Mexico at Nevada (-4) at 8:30 PM MT on ESPNU
ESPN FPI Predictor: Nevada win probability at 56%
A must-win game for Nevada if they would like to be bowl eligible this year, the Wolfpack were hammered at Wyoming last week. Not much left for New Mexico to play for in 2019 but pride.
Fresno State at Hawaii (-2.5) at 10 PM MT on CBS Sports Network
ESPN FPI Predictor: Hawaii win probability at 56%
The biggest game of the week in the Mountain West slate is Fresno State traveling to the Islands to face the Rainbow Warriors. Both Fresno State and Hawaii have upcoming games versus San Diego State but a loss in this contest may end their West Division title bids.
Bye Week: San Diego State and Wyoming
Predictions (my prediction can be found at the bottom of this article)
Jeremy Mauss (Mountain West Wire Manager): Boise State 35, San Jose State 17
Matt Kenerly (Mountain West Wire Editor): Boise State 31, San Jose State 16
Logan Jones (Mountain West Wire Utah State Contributor): Boise State 45, San Jose State 24
Erik Smiley (Mountain West Wire Boise State Contributor): Boise State 56, San Jose State 23
Collin Clovis (Mountain West Wire Boise State Contributor): Boise State 37, San Jose State 13
Spartans Offense Update and Notables
San Jose State is averaging 396 yards gained per game which is in middle of the pack in Division 1 but the Spartans are gaining 311 of those yards through the air; good enough to make them 12th in that metric. San Jose State is averaging 28 points per game and has only turned the ball over 7 times this season.
1) Josh Love, Senior Quarterback
While many expected Josh Love to have a steady senior year for the Spartans, no one could have seen this passing explosion that Love has posted. Love has 2,355 yards per year on a 59% completion rate. More importantly, Love has 15 touchdowns against just 3 interceptions. Love lit up Army for 314 yards and 3 touchdowns and coach Brennan will need a big game from his veteran signal-caller if the Spartans are going to be able to pull off this upset.
2) DeJon Parker, Senior Running Back
The lead back for the Spartans has had a nice year so far with 256 yards on a 4.1 yards per carry average and five touchdowns. Parker is a threat to catch the ball as well and has 109 receiving yards in 2019. Love and the Spartans will need Parker to be productive to help sustain drives and keep the Bronco’s offense on the sidelines.
3) Bailey Gaither, Senior Wide Receiver
While Gaither had only 27 yards receiving against Army, he did reel in a touchdown. Gaither is 6 foot 1 and is very athletic. The senior has 4 touchdowns for the season and 491 yards. Gaither will likely be Love’s primary target inside the red zone.
Spartans Defense Update and Notables
San Jose State is giving up 443 yards per game on average and 29 points, both of those numbers are less than ideal. The Spartans have especially struggled against the run, letting up 237 yards per contest on the ground. While that number should be taken into context with the Spartans playing against two triple-option teams this year (Army and Air Force), San Jose State has allowed nearly 5 yards a carry.
1) EJ Ane, Sophomore Defensive End
Ane is a quick defensive lineman that can cause problems for the inconsistent Boise State offensive line. Ane has 24 tackles for the year and a sack. Ane had a terrific game last week against Army where he racked up 7 tackles, 1 tackle for loss, and a forced fumble.
2) Ethan Aguayo, Senior Linebacker
The senior linebacker is the leader of the defense and has the most tackles on the Spartans this season. He will be counted on even more as his wingman, linebacker Jesse Osuna (51 tackles and three sacks for the year), is suspended for the first half of this game for a late targeting penalty against Army. Aguayo has 69 tackles, a sack, and an interception for the year.
3) Brandon Ezell, Senior Cornerback
Ezell is a tall and talented cornerback for San Jose State and he will be needed to help contain the Bronco’s passing attack. Ezell does have 3 interceptions for the year to go along with 20 tackles and 3 passes defended.
Broncos to Keep an Eye On
Here are some Boise State players to watch out for in this contest:
1) Hank Bachmeier, Freshman Quarterback
Bachmeier took a big hit on a scramble a few weeks ago versus Hawaii and was knocked out of the game and missed the following week versus BYU but looks to be a full go in practice in the lead up to this week’s game. Bachmeier has 1,547 yards on a 62% completion percentage with 9 touchdowns against 3 interceptions. Bachmeier has also amassed 43 yards and a touchdown on the ground. More importantly for Boise State, Bachmeier has shown toughness and grit that belies his status as a true freshman.
2) George Holani, Freshman Running Back
While Bachmeier has understandably gotten most of the headlines, Holani has also had quite the successful true freshman campaign. Holani has 551 total yards and 3 touchdowns for the year and has taken on more and more carries each game as the year has progressed. With nominal starter Robert Mahone fighting through an injury, Holani will once again be called upon in this road contest.
3) John Hightower, Senior Wide Receiver
The versatile senior speedster has gotten more and more buzz as a potential early NFL draft pick with his stellar play. Hightower has lined up at quarterback in the wildcat formation, returns kicks and punts, and rushes the ball but he does his most damage at the wide receiver position. Hightower has 455 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns for the year.
4) Curtis Weaver, Junior Defensive End
The most talented pure football player on the Bronco’s roster is Curtis Weaver. Weaver leads the NCAA this year in sacks and is also the current active NCAA career sacks leader despite being only a junior. For his career, Weaver has 30 sacks and in 2019, Weaver has racked up 9.5 sacks to go along with a forced fumble and 31 tackles. He will need to lead the defensive line into the Spartan backfield early and often in this contest.
5) Avery Williams, Junior Cornerback
The veteran star cornerback for Boise State has 108 tackles, 4 interceptions, and 4 forced fumbles in his 3 years at Boise State. This year Williams has taken on the role of CB1 and has been called upon to cover the opponent’s best wide receiver. Williams is also a special teams star player and has 3 total touchdown returns on punts and kickoffs for his career but has not found the endzone on a return yet this year.
6) Eric Sachse, Senior Place Kicker
One of the better stories of the 2019 Boise State team is the rise of walk-on division 3 transfer, Eric Sachse. After hitting all 3 of his field goal attempts on the road versus Florida State, Sachse has continued his strong play. While field goals that are beyond the 40s are left to punter Joel Velazquez, Sachse has been pretty solid within his range. Sachse has kicked in 28 of 29 extra-point attempts and 9 of 11 field goals.
Boise State Game Plan for Victory
Here are some keys for the Broncos to notch the victory in San Jose:
1) Start Fast
Boise State has played many games tight in the first half before needing a suffocating performance from their defense in the second half which finally led to the offense pulling away for the win. Against a good conference opponent on the road, Boise State will need to take a commanding lead early on the road. With 2 weeks to prepare for this game, Bachmeier and Bryan Harsin should have this offense dialed in and ready to put up points.
2) Protect the Quarterback
The offensive line has shown lapses in play here and there and combined with Bachmeier’s tendency to hang on to the ball to long has finally caught up to the Broncos with an injury to the true freshman on an unplanned quarterback scramble. If Bachmeier and the offensive line are in sync, it could be a long day for the Spartan defense as Bachmeier gives his talented wide receivers time to stretch the field.
3) Stay Disciplined on Defense
Frustratingly for the defense has been the tendency to give up a big play here and there. Against BYU, the Bronco defense played stout but fell victim to big gains on 2 trick plays in the third quarter. Boise State must stay disciplined and on their assignments for this game to not allow Josh Love any momentum.
3) Win the Turnover Battle
There is no better way to give life to a quality road opponent that turning over the ball. Bachmeier has not played a meaningful snap in 3 weeks and must be careful with the football in this game and Holani has played well but the true freshman running back has let a few balls slip out of his hands. On the defensive side of the ball, Boise State’s defense have been looking to cause fumbles and have been somewhat successful in that regard but have not been able to snatch many interceptions so far this year.
Prediction
Folks, this is not your older brother’s San Jose State Spartans who have been a perennial doormat in the Mountain West. While San Jose State does seem to be a year or two away from making a big impact in the MWC, this Spartan team does have the talent and a good quarterback.
More importantly, they are playing in front of their home crowd on homecoming week after a big road victory whereas the Broncos are reeling after their first loss. One could assume the elements are there for a huge upset and a Spartan victory…
But do not be fooled. Boise State has had 2 long weeks to stew in anger after their loss and will look to reassert themselves as the ultimate alpha dog in the Mountain West. I expect Boise State to come out blazing and put up points in a hurry in this contest. Boise State has also not shown us too many signature trick plays but I expect that to change after the two-week layoff.
While we do not have a full accounting on the injury front, expect the Broncos who do line up to be ready to go. Boise State will cover the spread and win big and spoil San Jose State’s homecoming and big victory dreams this Friday night.
Boise State 44, San Jose State 24
