Game Day Preview, #20 Boise State and Utah State Face Off with the Mountain Division in the Balance
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Broncos and Aggies Clash in Logan
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A season which looked lost a few weeks ago for Utah State has been rejuvenated after two big victories and the Aggies are now staring at a major opportunity. Utah State was not only able to hold off the Wyoming Cowboys in Logan last week and once again secure the Bridger Rifle, they gained their sixth victory on the year and became bowl eligible.
The 20th ranked Boise State Broncos meanwhile dispatched New Mexico on the Blue Turf to move to 9-1 on Senior Day last week but face a much stiffer test this week on the road versus Utah State.
The Aggies and the Broncos had a fierce contest last year in Boise which featured both teams ranked and it was the Broncos who came out ahead and earned the right to go on to the Mountain West Championship game. The stakes may be equally high this year as these two rivals face off for their 24th meeting.
Date: November 23, 2019
Where: Maverick Stadium in Logan, UT
When: 8:30 PM MST
How to Watch: CBS Sports Network
Stream: FuboTV – Get a seven-day free trial
Spread: Boise State -9
ESPN FPI Win Predictor: Boise State 68% win probability
Weather: High of 43°/Low of 21° with mostly clear skies and light winds. Sunset at 5:01 PM
Head to Head Record: Boise State 18 wins, Utah State 5 wins
Previous Meeting: Boise State 33, Utah State 24 on November 24, 2018 in Boise, ID
Big West Conference Titles: Boise State 2, Utah State 3
WAC Conference Titles: Boise State 8, Utah State 1
MWC Mountain Division Titles: Boise State 3, Utah State 1
MWC Conference Titles: Boise State 3, Utah State 0
Bronco/Aggie History Rewind
Utah State played their first recorded football game in 1892 but were an independent unit until they joined the Rocky Mountain Athletic Conference in 1916 before moving to the Mountain States Skyline Conference in 1938. The Aggies would return to independent play in 1962 before joining the Big West in 1978. After a long run in the Big West, Utah State bounced around independency and the Sun Belt between 2001 to 2004 before finally landing in the Western Athletic Conference.
Boise State football would kick off in 1933 and the Broncos competed as a junior college until joining Division 1 AA (now known as the FCS) in 1968. The Broncos were an independent and then a member of the Big Sky before making the jump to 1A competition (or FBS) in 1996 when they joined Utah State in the Big West.
The Aggies and Broncos faced off for the first time back in 1975, a Utah State victory in Boise, Idaho. Boise State and Utah State would face each other 4 times as non-conference opponents before Boise State joined the Big West. The Broncos would go on to win 3 out of 5 over the Aggies as Big West opponents before Boise State moved to the Western Athletic Conference in 2001.
In the WAC, Boise State racked up 6 straight victories over Utah State while also ringing up 8 conference titles. Boise State would then head to the Mountain West Conference after the 2010 season and Utah State took advantage of the Broncos absence to win their only WAC championship in 2012. The Aggies followed the Broncos to the MWC in 2013 and have played Boise State every year since as Mountain Division foes. The Broncos are 5-1 in these matchups but the Aggies were able to land a big victory in 2015 to a score of 52-26 in Logan.
Boise State Season Rewind
The 2019 Bronco season started off with a bang as true freshman quarterback Hank Bachmeier led Boise State to a victory against college football blue blood Florida State at Doak Walker Stadium in Tallahassee, Florida. The good times would not stop there as the Broncos would win the next 6 straight and move all the way to the 14th spot in the AP Rankings. With superstar Curtis Weaver leading a young defense and Bachmeier at the head of a deep and talented offensive machine, the Broncos looked like a strong favorite to get to a New Year’s Six bowl game.
Unfortunately the young quarterback had been taking quite a few hits over the course of the season and was forced to miss a matchup on the road against Brigham Young and the Cougars were able to pull off the upset over the Broncos. Boise State was able to recover and knocked off San Jose State, Wyoming, and New Mexico in successive weeks to move to 9-1 for the year.
The New Year’s Six Cotton Bowl is once again within reach of the Broncos as they are in a dog fight with multiple members of the American Athletic Conference and Appalachian State from the Sun Belt for the coveted bid. Boise State however must first turn their attention to their own conference. The Broncos are favored in this road contest and can lock up the Mountain Division with a win but have been defeated by their rival in Logan before.
Utah State Season Rewind
Gary Andersen’s first year back with Utah State has been a wild one. The follow up to last year’s smashing 11 win season began about as you would expect, with the Aggies’ annual heartbreaking road loss to a Power 5 team followed by home wins against Colorado State and some unfortunate FCS team.
The first significant early development was a big road win at San Diego State which seemed to fuel a mostly new look squad with the confidence that these Aggies could compete with anyone. The season brimmed with promise as Utah State took to the road to face the mighty SEC.
Those paying attention to Joe Burrow and the Louisiana State Tigers probably knew the surefire beatdown awaiting Utah State at LSU would be an ugly affair but the loss still marked a noticeable turning point. Quarterback Jordan Love’s interception troubles persisted, the defense played uninspired after an initial early game burst, and that once sparkling confidence gained in San Diego evaporated.
What’s worse, a bounce back win over lowly Nevada two weeks later did little to restore it. The team had yet to appear fully operational on both sides of the ball and even with three key conference wins under its belt something was broken under the hood heading into a tough road game at Air Force.
That’s when the wheels came off. Air Force mercilessly bullied the Aggies for a nightmarish 60 minutes, damaging something in USU’s internal makeup so completely that a week later BYU gleefully trampled on whatever was left. In a two week span, Utah State lost the Wagon Wheel, its best linebacker, and its identity as a once promising season circled the drain.
And then in a mighty stroke of both fortune and inspiring resiliency, the Aggies came to themselves just in time to survive a road bout at Fresno (thanks in part to the best kicker in the Mountain West) and returned home to defend Maverik Stadium against Wyoming’s vaunted defense. The season wasn’t lost after all — at 6-4 the Aggies have once again claimed bowl eligibility and a spark of hope that perhaps this matchup against Boise State can still be a game.
Injury Situations
The Broncos and Aggies are both dealing with health issues. While injured players at this time of year is common, Boise State and Utah State are missing key players on both sides of the ball.
Utah State: Superstar linebacker David Woodward is out for the year for the Aggies. To make matters worse, quarterback Jordan Love is considered questionable with an undisclosed injury believed to be a concussion.
Boise State: The Broncos also lost their starting middle linebacker earlier in the year in Ezekiel Noa and are without their strong safety, DeAndre Pierce, as well. In a strange mirror to Utah State, Boise State also lost their superstar defensive player in Curtis Weaver (defensive end) to an injury during last week’s game and his status is currently unknown for this matchup. Weaver is projected to be a first-round pick in the 2020 NFL draft.
The Broncos are also dealing with injuries at quarterback. Both the starting quarterback, Hank Bachmeier, and the second string, Chase Cord, missed last week’s game with injuries and their status is currently unknown.
Rankings
The College Football Playoff committee rankings were released on Tuesday night and Boise State moved up one spot from 21st to 20th and closed the gap between themselves and the 18th ranked Memphis Tigers and 19th ranked Cincinnati Bearcats of the American Athletic Conference.
In the traditional polls, the Broncos moved down 1 spot in the AP Poll from 19 to 20 and held at 19 in the USA Today Coaches Poll. Utah State is not receiving votes in either poll. Jeff Sagarin’s computer rankings have the Broncos at 27 while the Aggies stand at 61.
Division Titles Race Update
While the West Division title is fairly clear with the winner of this week’s San Diego State at Hawaii getting the conference championship game bid, the Mountain Division is a bit more tricky.
Boise State is undefeated in conference play and has the head to head tiebreaker versus Air Force. Air Force and Utah State both have one loss in conference and Air Force has the head to head tiebreaker versus Utah State. If Boise State defeats Utah State, they will win the division with a conference record of 7-0 and just one conference game to play and tiebreakers versus Utah State and Air Force in hand. If Utah State can score the upset however, that’s when things get interesting because that will hand Boise State a conference loss and give the Aggies the head to head tiebreaker over the Broncos.
Obviously, the first decider in the division title race is best record in conference and right now Utah State, Air Force, or Boise State can still outright win the Mountain Division by virtue of having the best conference record since all 3 teams have 2 remaining conference games. If there is a tie between 2 teams then the head to head tiebreaker will be the deciding factor.
If there is a 3 way tie between the 3 schools and they finish with 1 loss (meaning Air Force wins out, Utah State beats Boise State, and then the Broncos and Aggies both win in the final week of the year), computer rankings will be used to determine the division champion since all 3 teams will have only 1 conference loss (all to each other) and this will render all other tiebreakers moot. In the unlikely case that Utah State, Boise State, and Air Force finish tied but with 2 conference losses, the winner of the division will be determined by wins against divisional opponents based on the divisional opponents’ records.
Colorado State at Wyoming (-7) at 7:30 PM MST (Friday night) on ESPN2
ESPN FPI Predictor: Wyoming win probability at 80%
Colorado State must win out to become bowl eligible in 2019 while Wyoming seeks to secure their standing. The Cowboys finished 6-6 last season and did not earn a bowl invite.
Air Force (-21.5) at New Mexico at 12 PM MT on ESPN3
ESPN FPI Predictor: Air Force win probability at 93%
This contest is a reschedule of game from 2 weeks ago due to the unfortunate passing of 21 year old New Mexico defensive tackle Nahje Flowers. Air Force is heavy favorites in this contest.
San Jose State (-4.5) at Nevada-Las Vegas at 2 PM MT
ESPN FPI Predictor: San Jose State win probability at 62%
The Spartans have had a surprise year and stand at 4-6 but San Jose State still has work to do and must win their final 2 contests to become bowl eligible. The Rebels are simply playing for pride at this point.
Nevada at Fresno State (-13) at 8:30 PM MT on ESPN2
ESPN FPI Predictor: Fresno State win probability at 87%
Fresno State is coming off of a tough loss to San Diego State and will look to rebound at home versus the Wolf Pack. Despite having only 3 conference losses, Nevada is eliminated from the West Division title due to tiebreakers.
San Diego State at Hawaii (-1) at 9 PM MT
ESPN FPI Predictor: Hawaii win probability at 59%
The battle for the West Division crown takes place on the Islands. Hawaii is a slight home favorite but will face a strong test against the tough defense of San Diego State.
Predictions (our prediction can be found at the bottom of this article)
Jeremy Mauss (Mountain West Wire Manager): Boise State 28, Utah State 16
Matt Kenerly (Mountain West Wire Editor): Boise State 31, Utah State 24
Sam McConkie (Mountain West Wire Aggie Contributor): Utah State 31, Boise State 28
Erik Smiley (Mountain West Wire Bronco Contributor): Boise State 32, Utah State 26
Brad Hubbard (Mountain West Wire Ram Contributor): Boise State 26, Utah State 17
Brandon Blake (Mountain West Wire Wolf Pack Contributor): Boise State 24, Utah State 21
Bronco Offense Update and Notables
The Bronco offense comes into this game averaging 454.8 yards per game, which has led to an average of 36.1 points per game. Those are definitely respectable numbers, but the bigger story for the Boise State offense is who is going to take the field at the quarterback position. The Broncos have had 4 different players throw a touchdown pass in 2019 and it is anyone’s guess who will be under center on Saturday when they take on the Aggies in Logan.
1) George Holani, Freshman Running Back
The true freshman running back has proven that his 4 star ranking out of high school was well deserved. He leads the Broncos with 692 yards on 131 carries, good enough for 5.3 yards per carry and 5 touchdowns. Holani has also shown himself to be a capable receiver as he has 136 yards and 2 touchdowns on the year. The Broncos will look to get him going on Saturday to control the pace of the game and keep the Utah State offense off the field.
2) Khalil Shakir, Sophomore Wide Receiver
How versatile is Shakir? He happens to be the only non-quarterback to throw a touchdown pass this season. In addition, he also has 44 receptions for 615 yards and 4 touchdowns, good for an average of 14 yards per catch. If that wasn’t enough he also has 11 rushing attempts for 49 yards and 2 more touchdowns. Shakir’s athletic and playmaking ability is unique and mostly unmatched in the Mountain West.
3) John Hightower, Senior Wide Receiver
Did someone say playmaking ability? Well, we better talk about John Hightower then. A combination of elite speed and solid size has continued to make him a nightmare matchup for Mountain West defenses. Through ten games he has 37 receptions for 754 yards and 6 touchdowns, good for a whopping 20.4 yards per catch. He has also proven to be elusive on the ground with 13 carries for 141 yards, good for 10.8 yards per carry. Look for him to stretch the Aggie defense on Saturday.
Bronco Defense Update and Notables
The Broncos come into this contest as the 3rd best defensive unit in the Mountain West behind San Diego State and Air Force, giving up an average of just 338 yards per game. They are equally stingy against the pass and the run, giving up an average of 5.1 yards per play. The Broncos rank 2nd in the Mountain West in sacks with 29 on the year, just 1 behind Wyoming’s 30. This stat may prove significant on Saturday when the Boise State defense will work to corral Aggie quarterback Jordan Love.
1) Sonatane Lui, Senior Defensive Tackle
Lui looks to keep his strong senior season going against the Aggies this weekend after recovering 2 fumbles against New Mexico and taking one of those back for a touchdown. He is a strong force at nose guard with 41 tackles on the year, 4 of those tackles for loss, and 2.5 sacks. Getting pressure on Jordan Love will be a key for success for the Bronco defense.
2) Riley Whimpey, Junior Linebacker
When the Broncos lost their leading tackler in Ezekiel Noa for the season, they were not sure who would step up to fill his shoes. Whimpey has proven he is more than capable of shouldering that load with his team leading 55 tackles, 22 of those solo stops. The Utah State game is also personal for Riley as his both of his brothers were talented offensive linemen for the Aggies.
3) Avery Williams, Junior Cornerback
In the upcoming matchup against the Aggies, the Boise State secondary will be thoroughly tested and will need to step up to the plate to earn a Broncos win. A major component of that secondary is junior cornerback Avery Williams. Williams has not had the same success as in previous seasons, so look for him and the rest of the secondary to have a chip on their shoulder against the Aggies.
Aggies Offense Update and Notables
Utah State is the fourth best offense in the conference in yards per game (just behind Boise State), but red zone troubles and costly turnovers have the Aggies scoring a middling 28 points per game (7th in the Mountain West). Jordan Love has showcased the tools he used to propel this offense last season in short bursts but without the same supporting cast, Utah State’s quarterback has been asked to shoulder even more of the offensive load. With a possible concussion sidelining Love this weekend, Henry Colombi might be forced to step into his first career start in less than ideal circumstances.
1) Gerold Bright and Jaylen Warren, Running Backs
Bright leads the Aggies in rushing this year with 670 yards (5.1 yards per carry). Warren returns after missing time with an injury and has nearly caught up to Bright’s six touchdowns with five of his own.
2) Savon Scarver, Junior Wide Receiver/Return Specialist
Scarver is a unique weapon, moreso in the return game than as a receiver (although his straight line speed does open up big play opportunities once or twice a game). The 2018 All American is tied for first nationally in kickoff returns for touchdowns with two this year and ranks first in the Mountain West and sixth in the nation in kickoff return yards (29.8 yards per return).
3) Siaosi Mariner, Sophomore Wide Receiver
Mariner has come up huge for the Aggies in the last two weeks, posting back-to-back 100 yard games to help spark USU’s crucial season turnaround. Mariner leads the Aggies with 49 receptions for 753 yards (15.4 ypr/75.3 ypg) and seven touchdowns this season, ranked third in the Mountain West for receiving touchdowns.
Aggies Defense Update and Notables
Utah State’s defensive statistics across the board have been serviceable. The Aggies rank fifth in the conference in scoring defense (26.7 points allowed per game), passing efficiency defense (130.7), and in tackles for loss (5.4 per game). Utah State’s pass rush and ability to defend the run ranks closer to the middle of the pack, ranked seventh in sacks with 18 (1.80 per game) and eighth in rushing defense (180.0 yards allowed per game). Utah State’s defense does rank first in the Mountain West with 10 fumble recoveries (1.0 per game) and fourth down conversion percentage (26.7%).
1) Tipa Galeai, Senior Defensive End
Galeai has been asked to do some new things in a new defense, but still managed to tally his third sack of the year Saturday against Wyoming. The senior has six tackles for loss this season, and will be one of the premier players Utah State must have shine in order to stand up to Boise State’s offensive attack.
2) Eric Munoz, Redshirt Junior Linebacker
With Woodward out for the season, someone was bound to step up in the Aggie front seven. Enter Eric Munoz, who made his first career start last week against Wyoming and absolutely crushed it, posting a career high 13 tackles and two fourth quarter interceptions. The walk-on’s efforts were rewarded this week with a scholarship.
3) Shaq Bond, Junior Safety
Bond also came away from the Wyoming matchup with a big interception, setting up a first-half field goal for the Aggies. Bond has two picks this season and a defensive TD.
Boise State Keys for a Victory
1) Find a consistent balance of run and pass
The Broncos were able to do this against a subpar New Mexico squad last week, but will need to continue their offensive dominance this week in Logan. Regardless of who starts at quarterback for the Broncos, they will need to utilize their dangerous playmakers in Hightower and Shakir, while also finding some room for Holani to run. Not allowing the Aggie defense to settle in and get comfortable will go a long ways towards leaving Maverick Stadium with a victory.
2) Protect the ball
This is a constant for any team in every game. The Broncos have made life harder for themselves than necessary in some of their closer matchups by failing to protect the ball. Mistakes will have to be limited against the Aggies on Saturday to finish the contest victorious.
3) Stay disciplined on defense
In the Broncos only loss this season, they allowed themselves to get beat on a number of trick plays. The secondary will need to keep eyes on their coverage rather than allowing them to stray into the backfield, and trust their front seven to handle things around the line of scrimmage. The defense will have to remain disciplined as the Aggies will undoubtedly throw everything including the kitchen sink at the Broncos to try and crack their stout defense.
4) Strong Offensive Line Play
This has been a surprising point of difficulty all season for the Broncos. A senior heavy unit, the offensive line was predicted to have an outstanding season. A combination of injuries and poor communication has led to struggles at times. Look for this unit to band together to open up holes and keep the quarterback upright to earn a victory in Logan on Saturday.
Utah State Keys for a Victory
1) Don’t turn the ball over. Like, at all.
Whether it’s 70% of Love in at QB or 100% of Colombi, taking care of the football in this matchup is a prerequisite to winning. Utah State’s defense struggles enough without doing Boise State any favors. Throws need to be sharp, receivers need to be special and if a pass isn’t there just throw it away. Do you hear me, Colombi? If your man isn’t there don’t force a crazy pass, just live to fight another down.
2) Gerold Bright and Jaylen Warren net explosive plays
Both dangerous weapons on a good night, these guys can each turn a close game on its head. Games like this tend to get gritty after the opening round of scripted drives, and moving the chains on the ground is going to be the foundation of any success Utah State hopes to have.
3) Defensive play calling and execution of a proper pass rush
Even with back to back wins soothing the wounds suffered against Air Forceand BYU, the play calling on the defensive side of the ball this season seems to have hamstrung the Aggies significantly. Utah State has the athletes to pose problems for a QB — no matter which QB — but need to be put in a position to do so. The secondary has Shaq Bond patrolling the back end but not much else, so receivers are going to be open throughout the night. Turnovers and havoc plays will have to come from the edge, and considering this game’s as big as it gets for Utah State this year there’s no need to be shy about the playbook.
4) Eberle is gonna have to boot some field goals
Unless Utah State magically solves its red zone offense, Dominik Eberle is going to have to put points on the board. That hasn’t been much of an issue for him this season, but in pressure situations he’ll likely have to deliver at the end of halves and key drives that come up short to keep the Aggies competitive.
Predictions
Raja: Ah, Utah State week. The Aggies are… they are irritating. They are not a bad program and they did beat the Broncos in their house soundly a few years back but they are not in the same league as Boise State, and frankly it’s not particularly close. If you were to refer to Utah State as Boise State’s little brother, it would be an insult to the Broncos. Before this season started we had to suffer through a heisman campaign propaganda for an Aggie and had several members of the media pick the Aggies to win the Mountain Division. Well media folks, it is time to see the full might of the Broncos.
Whomever Boise State rolls out at quarterback, they will be ready to go and will have the tools available at his disposal to put up points versus the Aggies. Utah State’s defense was only an average unit to begin with and the loss of David Woodward has made the Aggie defense susceptible to big plays. Look for Boise State to unleash their playbook and bring everything to this fight. Listen, the Aggies are not a pushover but they are also not the equal of the Broncos. I have no inside information on the injured players for Boise State (especially their quarterbacks) but I believe that if they can go, they will play in this matchup.
Boise State 31, Utah State 20
Collin: It seems of late that this late season contest against the Aggies has been the deciding factor in who wins the Mountain Division, this year is no exception. Boise State will need to come in firing to start quickly and grind out a Division-clinching victory against Utah State.
The Aggies have had an up and down season thus far, but are peaking at the right time. A lot of the Aggies’ success will be determined by if Jordan Love plays or has to sit out with an injury. The Broncos starter at quarterback is equally unknown, however both Chase Cord and Jaylon Henderson has proven capable backups in recent weeks. I believe (hope) fans will see Hank Bachmeier take the field on Saturday, as he has a certain level of toughness and moxy that inspires the team to a higher level of play. Following a solid defensive effort with multiple forced turnovers and a well-rounded offensive effort, the Aggies see another solid season end in disappointment at the hands of the Broncos.
Boise State 31, Utah State 13
Logan: Of course there are scenarios where Utah State pulls this off, and of course I’ll be rooting for every one of the guys in that locker room to rally and make this a statement win for what could’ve (should’ve?) been a down year.
That said, Utah State appears outmatched in this one. I’m a believer in Colombi’s potential and Mariner is a star, but with Love’s status questionable there’s just no counting on the offense to maintain any sort of consistent rhythm. Even more importantly, the Aggie defense hasn’t contained a good offense all season. Utah State’s biggest wins this year were made possible at least in part by bad offenses (which Boise doesn’t have) and awful decisions by opposing coaches (which Harsin won’t make). That’s not to take anything away from those wins, it only proves what I suspected from the season’s outset: Utah State is talented and dangerous to 90% of the conference, but has not put itself in a position to be Boise’s equal this year.
Boise State 35, Utah State 27
