Betting on rugby has always struck me as a desperately fraught occupation. These days the top-level margins are tighter than anything currently worn by Kate Winslet and some of the weekend's Heineken Cup results were off the predictive scale. Glasgow scoring 33 points to win in Toulouse? The Scarlets thrashing Stade Français 31–17? At this rate it will soon be time to back Italy for the Six Nations (or at least to finish above England). Any takers?
Either way, the only certainty heading into the final round of Heineken pool games is that someone, somewhere is about to receive a nasty shock. This has nothing to do with Far East syndicates (it's pretty safe to assume they haven't infiltrated the Calvisano dressing-room yet) and everything to do with a tournament which, more than any other, specialises in the improbable. Three sides – Munster, Cardiff Blues and Harlequins – have qualifed already but forecasting the four home quarter-finalists and the two 'fastest losers' remains a matter of much conjecture.
The Blues, it has to be assumed, will see off Calvisano at the Arms Park on Friday night and cement top spot, in the process becoming only the second Welsh side to go through a pool with a 100% record since the competition's inception. Munster, likewise, should win at Montauban, although if conditions are comparable to when Sale visited the sodden Stade de Sapiac they will struggle to register a try bonus point. Quins? Suddenly their home game against Scarlets appears less straightforward but, given the stakes, you still fancy them to sneak home and finish on 21 points.
Whether that will be enough to secure an all-important home draw remains to be seen. Even Leinster, with their current prop shortage, will not be as confident of a bonus point against Edinburgh in Dublin as they might have been previously. The three pivotal games, therefore, are those at the Ospreys, Bath and Castres. The winners of the first two will definitely progress, while Wasps will need four tries to make sure. I fancy the English champions to win but I'm not sure they'll get a bonus point. Away from High Wycombe they have relied primarily on the boot this season and Castres's Lionel Nallet, if he plays, is a mighty tough customer. There is always a chance Castres won't be interested but that's what Leinster mistakenly thought last month.
If they do end up on 20 points Wasps can only pray that Toulouse fall short at Bath. It is hard to know precisely which Toulouse side will turn up; their coach Guy Noves described the loss to Glasgow as "a catastrophe" so it is reasonable to assume complacency won't be a factor this time. With so much rain around, however, the Rec is likely to be far removed from the fast track Toulouse would ideally prefer. In those circumstances I'd much prefer to have Butch James as my outside half ahead of Frederic Michalak or Jean-Baptiste Elissalde. Bath to win, then, by a narrow margin in a relatively low-scoring game, an outcome which would suit their domestic rivals Wasps perfectly.
And Leicester in Swansea? It is the hardest of all to pick. The Tigers won at the Liberty Stadium in this tournament three seasons ago but only thanks to a last-gasp try. The Ospreys are a better side now and their international men are mostly all available. I take them to win a brutal encounter by eight or nine points, thus depriving the visitors of a losing bonus point and pipping them as pool winners. The Midlanders would then have to endure a sleepless night before learning whether they have qualified as one of the two best second-placed clubs
All of which produces this potential quarter-final line-up: Cardiff v Wasps, Bath v Leicester, Munster v Leinster and Harlequins v Ospreys. It would be extraordinary if the last eight were completely devoid of French involvement but that is now a distinct possibility. Money, it seems, cannot buy you everything. Unless, of course, Toulouse confound us all and prove yet again that predicting Heineken Cup results is a game for mugs.
Blindly copying the football model is not the way forward
Sometimes bizarre-sounding ideas grow on you after a few days. Not so the ludicrous proposal to increase the number of Premiership games to a pile-'em-high figure of 27 per club while retaining a 12-team league. Go figure. We know money is tight but sacrificing the integrity of your competition is hardly the solution. Playing pre-season tournaments abroad, scrapping the A league in favour of a shorter, sharper U-20 tournament, reducing the numbers of journeymen overseas pros and increasing stadium capacity remain healthier options. If that still doesn't balance the books, extend the end-of-season play-offs, push for the expansion of the Heineken Cup to a 40-team tournament – 10 pools of four – with a home-and-away 'Round of 16' and enter the losing teams in a concurrent UEFA Cup-style competition. Above all, remember that people want to watch meaningful games and that soccer is not necessarily the business model to copy. Quality, not quantity, is the way forward.
Welsh strength in depth puts English hopes into perspective
So, let's get this straight. Dwayne Peel is omitted by Wales while Andy Goode is selected to join England's warm-weather training camp in Portugal next week. Which of these two squads do you think sounds the strongest?
