The Government’s furlough scheme has been hailed as a “job well done”, supporting 11.6 million workers, at a cost of £70 billion.
The Resolution Foundation said the scheme, which ends this week, has subsidised 2.3 billion working days.
But the think tank added that the country is set for a “bumpy” autumn as the end of furlough coincides with rising energy bills and the £20 a week cut to Universal Credit.
Its study found that over the past 18 months the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (JRS) has cost roughly equivalent to the schools budget for 18 months.
“The JRS has been a huge success during the crisis, helping to limit unemployment during the sharpest economic contraction in over 300 years to just 5.2% at its peak, with the extension of the scheme to September 30 proving essential with the crisis having lasted far longer than anyone first expected,” said the report.
The Foundation said it expects around one million employees to be on the furlough scheme when it closes on Thursday.
While most workers on the scheme should return to their previous jobs, particularly those on partial furlough, the think tank predicted that hundreds of thousands more workers will be looking for new jobs from October, just as UC is due to be cut by £20 a week.
Older workers, who are now the most likely to be on furlough, face the greatest risk of unemployment, said the report.
Dan Tomlinson, senior economist at the Resolution Foundation, said: “Furlough has been as critical to fighting the Covid crisis as nationalising the banks was to fighting the global financial crisis, and it has been even more important in terms of protecting people’s living standards.
“The scheme has prevented the UK experiencing catastrophic levels of unemployment, and its extension to 18 months – at a cost of £70 billion – has been worth every penny.
“As we prepare for a post-furlough jobs market this autumn, hundreds of thousands more workers will be looking for work and older workers in particular face the risk of unemployment and early retirement as they are most likely to still be on furlough.
“Record levels of job vacancies should hopefully mean this mass job search is relatively short-term, but Britain is set for a bumpy autumn as the end of furlough coincides with rising energy bills and the £20 a week cut to Universal Credit.”
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