The Premier League season is rapidly approaching it’s conclusion and there is still plenty to be decided, including the relegation fight near the foot of the table.
Fulham currently sit second-bottom with 17 points, sitting 13 points behind safety heading into the final seven games of the season - and the situation for Scott Parker’s side looks to be bleak.
A total of 21 points remain on offer for the Cottagers between now and the end of the season in May, which is a higher figure than the Cottagers have accumulated this term, and that means Fulham could still theoretically finish with a total of 38 points.
The magic 40-point mark is usually considered to be the tally that will save a club from relegation but Fulham can no longer achieve that figure and their fate will be confirmed with a lower tally.
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But when can Fulham get relegated? And is there a chance for Parker to complete one of the greatest escapes this season? We’ve crunched the numbers and taken a look.
The earliest date
Fulham could be condemned to Championship football next season as early as April 2, if they lose their clashes with Manchester City and Watford, but it would need Burnley and Southampton to pick up form.
If the Cottagers were to lose those two games, Burnley and Southampton would each need to pick up a win from their next two matches to condemn Parker’s side to relegation - as Fulham’s highest reachable total would be 32 points.
Two wins for Cardiff City in their next two games, coupled with a win for either Burnley or Southampton and two defeats for Fulham, would also seal their fate.
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The likely scenario
Fulham’s fate may not be sealed too swiftly though as their relegation rivals Southampton and Burnley have a difficult sequence of matches over the course of the next four games.
The Saints, who have a game in hand on Fulham, have to tackle Brighton, Liverpool, Wolves and Newcastle, while Burnley clash with Wolves, Bournemouth, Cardiff and Chelsea..
During that spell, Fulham lock horns with Manchester City, Watford, Everton and Bournemouth; a run of games that looks challenging for the Cottagers.
Fulham will need to pull off some surprise results if they are to survive, with only one game to come against a side also battling to avoid relegation.
That clash with Cardiff City on April 27 may yet be decisive for both teams, but Fulham will need to start winning games to ensure they are still in with a chance of surviving when they face the Bluebirds.
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The great escape
It looks like highly unlikely as things stand, but Fulham could still be playing in the Premier League next season due to the rules of mathematics. However, it would require a sensational sequence of events across the board.
Having won only four games already this season, the Cottagers can not afford to drop many points in their next seven games, and will more than likely need to pick up at least 15 points from a possible 21 to have any chance of avoiding the drop, given their significantly worse goal difference.
That would, of course, depend on other results involving their rivals, and with Burnley and Cardiff facing each other on April 13, at least one of Fulham's rivals in the battle to avoid relegation will get to 31 points.
Other results prior to that game may change the equation somewhat, and Fulham's fate could already be sealed before then, as mentioned above.
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But one thing is for certain, Fulham's hopes of survival will be futile if they do not start winning games.
Seven wins might not even be enough for the Cottagers, depending on other results, but the earliest they could get out of the relegation zone would be on April 27 - and that is dependent on winning their next five games, with Burnley and Southampton both failing to pick up two points between now and then, and Cardiff winning at Turf Moor next month.
And if Fulham do pull it off, it would certainly be a great escape.
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