On 10 October 2013, the FTSE 100 was sitting at 6430, before subsequently rising - albeit in a rather volatile way - to its recent peak of 6878 in May.
Now a year later the leading index has fallen all the way back, closing down 50.39 points at 6431.85.
It did not look like that at the start of the day, with markets enthused by the US Federal Reserve minutes which suggested fears of an early interest rate rise were misplaced.
But this optimism soon faded, as the current worries about global growth and geopolitical concerns reasserted themselves.
This week has seen a raft of poor data, from Germany in particular, and a 5.8% fall in exports reinforced fears about a possible recession in what is supposed to be the eurozone's powerhouse. Coming in the wake of the IMF cutting its global growth forecasts, that brought the sellers out once more. Comments from Chancellor George Osborne that the eurozone weakness was already hitting the UK economy also dented sentiment.
Added to that, was the continuing concern about air strikes on Isis, the situation in Ukraine and of course the spread of the Ebola virus.
The market falls accelerated as Wall Street opened, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 180 points by the time London closed.
A number of UK companies went ex-dividend including Kingfisher, which fell 15.9p to 296.8p, and Aviva, down 499.3p.
Among the other fallers, Vodafone fell 6.95p to 197.35 as Nomura, highlighting competition worries, cut its target price to 180p from 190p and moved to reduce from neutral. Meanwhile Espirito Santo's Andrew Hogley issued a sell note at the prospect Vodafone might overpay for Italian broadband firm Fastweb, said to have been put up for sale by owner Swisscom.
Worries about the impact of Ebola on travel and tourism saw easyJet lose another 37p to £13.41 while Tui Travel fell 10.1p to 356.9p.
Oil fell back once more, with Brent crude currently down 1.4% at $90.1 a barrel, on oversupply and the prospect of falling demand, given global economic weakness.
However metal prices moved higher as the dollar weakened following the suggestion the Fed would not raise rates prematurely. So Mexican precious metals miner Fresnillo was up 46.5p to 770p and Randgold Resources rose 248p to £42.98. Numis said:
We stick with our defensive criteria; our [mining] picks remain Randgold, Fresnillo and Petra which have superior growth profiles to counter-act flat to falling commodity prices, high quality assets to weather any downturn and strong management to deliver on business plans.
Rio Tinto rose 64p to £30.53 as Credit Suisse suggested Glencore, down 4.9p at 321.75p, could come back for another tilt at the iron ore specialist when it was allowed in six months time. Analyst Liam Fitzpatrick said:
[After] Glencore's announcement that it was not actively considering a merger or offer [it] is now for the next six months subject to Rule 2.8 of the City Code on Takeovers and Mergers (no offer without the consent of the Takeover Panel). However, this far from rules out a bid further down the line, in our view.
There have been a number of unsuccessful deals in recent years (BHP/Rio, Vale/Xstrata, Xstrata/Anglo American) and...there are major obstacles to a deal not least of which is the polar opposite company cultures and buy in from major Rio shareholders (Chinalco, Ltd shareholders). However, big deals typically occur at the peak or trough of the cycle and the synergies on offer together with the potential to re-rate Rio through diversification could become all the more compelling if iron ore continues to move lower in 2015/16. Glencore may therefore be happy to play the waiting game but we expect the prospect of a second approach to remain an overhang.
Back among the losers Associated British Foods - owner of British Sugar as well as the more high profile Primark - fell 12p to £25.53 after Germany's Suedzucker said the European sugar and ethanol markets had continued to deteriorate.
Among the mid-caps, Hays was 2.7p higher at 122.7p after the recruitment group reported an underlying 9% rise in first quarter fees, following strong demand in the UK, Australia and Germany.
Lower down the market New British Palm Oil was in demand after it received a £1.073bn or 715p a share offer from Malaysian plantation owner Sime Darby. Sime Darby director Anthony Dass said:
As a brown field asset, New British Palm Oil will immediately contribute to earnings without the incumbent risks associated with green field expansion.
The move comes just days after Sime Darby said it would not by the 49% stake in New British Palm Oil owned by Malaysian investment firm Kulim.
The company, which has land holdings in Papua New Guinea, said it would recommend the bid, and Kulim said it would accept it, unless a higher offer came in.
New British Palm Oil jumped 286p or 74% to 670p while fellow producer M P Evans also benefited, up 7% to 457.625p. Analyst Charles Hall at Peel Hunt said:
Only 10 days after stating that it had decided not to proceed with an offer for Kulim's shares, Sime Darby has now announced a cash offer at 715p (an 85% premium) for the entire company. Assuming Kulim agrees and given approval from the Papua New Guinea government, this deal should go through. The size of premium reflects the long term prospects for palm oil rather than the current weakness in the palm oil price. It also continues the theme of consolidation in the industry and demonstrates the value in MP Evans.
It appears that the termination of the talks with Kulim (who own 49%) was more due to time constraints rather than desire to proceed. Post the termination, New Britain's management was able to be involved and to help secure the necessary agreements.
This deal values New Britain at $28,000 per mature hectare and $25,000 including immature hectares, though this does include the downstream and sugar assets. This looks an attractive price given the current palm price, at which level New Britain is moderately profitable. The price demonstrates the long term value in plantation assets rather than the short term issues. It also demonstrates the value in MP Evans, which is trading on c$10,000 per hectare. We expect consolidation in the industry to continue given the increasing difficulty of finding new land.
