Thailand's automotive industry is expected to maintain output in 2019 at 2.15 million cars, even as domestic and external factors become volatile, says the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI).
The FTI's automotive industry club's tentative projection is set at 1.05 million cars sold locally, while exports are seen at 1.1 million cars. This projection would mean flat growth.
Surapong Paisitpatanapong, the club's spokesman, said shipments will face fragile conditions on many continents.
In the Middle East, a key market for Thai-made pickups, fluctuations in oil prices are pressuring people's purchasing power.
Europe is halting car imports from Thailand under the region's Generalized System of Preferences (GSP). To circumvent this, many car makers plan to ship cars from Turkey to that region.
"Turkey enjoys a free-trade agreement with Europe," Mr Surapong said.
He said the trade war between the US and China continues to have a widespread negative impact and is the most important factor hurting the global economy and exports.
Meanwhile, non-tariff barriers among Southeast Asian countries remain an obstacle for Thailand, which is the largest car production hub in the region. Other countries are trying hard to make cars domestically instead of importing from Thailand.
"The 1.1-million-car export projection for 2019 is unchanged from 2018," Mr Surapong said. "Once global sentiments improve, the club will increase the projection."
At home, local car sales will be slower than in 2017 and 2018, which saw double-digit increases.
Mr Surapong said the club predicts the overall car market in Thailand to contract by 2-5% to 980,000-1,010,000 cars in 2019.
"High household debt is a key factor for local car sales, even though the level has declined to 77% of GDP from above 80% a year ago," he said. "Moreover, the rising interest rate trend and restrictions on hire-purchase loan approvals from banks will pressure the country's car sales, impeding growth."
Mr Surapong said the general election and new investment from the public and private sectors will be positive factors in 2019 to beef up the automotive industry.
The automotive industry club yesterday reported that automotive output in November rose by 3.5% year-on-year to 197,020 units, led by production for the local market.
Overall car output from January to November stood at 1.998 million units, up 9.1% on the year-earlier period.
Local sales in November rose by 21.2% year-on-year and 8.8% month-to-month to 94,614 units, driven by healthy economic sentiment in the country and new car launches.
Overall car sales grew by 21% to 928,129 units in the first 11 months.
Mr Surapong said the recent motor show gained 44,189 bookings, so the club is confident that sales in December will exceed 104,000 cars, leading 2018 local sales to surpass 1 million units sold as the club expected earlier.
Car exports in November dropped by 9.6% to 93,108 units from economic contractions in many regions -- Middle East, Oceania, North America and Europe -- and export value in November dropped by 11% to 48.09 billion baht.
Car exports from January to November rose by 0.13% to 1.045 million cars and the value for the period fell by 1.1% to 547 billion baht.
"Car shipments for 2018 are projected to reach 1.13 million units," Mr Surapong said.
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