Former Bush speechwriter David Frum explained his overarching theory about the 2008 election in a very astute discussion at conservative think tank AEI today.
Frum said the November 2008 election is a referendum on two ideas. One, voters will make a Reaganesque assessment of whether they are better off now than they were eight years ago. Two, the election is a vote of confidence on Obama's ability to serve as commander in chief, with McCain functioning only as a default alternative.
McCain suffers on the first question, Frum said. Stagnating median income and high fuel costs guarantee that. Even though McCain is not an incumbent, as Jimmy Carter was in 1980, he is a Republican whom voters tie to Bush. Frum predicted that in a debate, Obama will repeat (he said verbatim) Reagan's 1980 formulation of the question in a debate with Carter just days before the election. Reagan said:
I think when you make that decision, it might be well if you would ask yourself, are you better off than you were four years ago? Is it easier for you to go and buy things in the stores than it was four years ago? Is there more or less unemployment in the country than there was four years ago? Is America as respected throughout the world as it was? Do you feel that our security is as safe, that we're as strong as we were four years ago? And if you answer all of those questions yes, why then, I think your choice is very obvious as to whom you will vote for.
On the second question, Frum said that in any other election year, a candidate with such a slim resume as Obama would not even be a VP candidate. He summed up the electorate's mood thus:
You're fired, but I'm not yet sure I'm hiring you.
AEI scholar Norm Ornstein, who joined the conference by telephone from Brussels, said the disconnect between Obama's large margin of advantage on issue polls (such as, "whom do you trust more to handle the economy, healthcare, energy policy, etc.? This ABC News/Washington Post poll has thorough results) and his mediocre performance versus McCain in the head-to-head "trial heats" shows voters seem to prefer him but aren't yet sold on whether he is up to the job. Ornstein said that the election turns on whether Obama can get over that threshold.
