No two quarterbacks in the NFL have the same supporting cast. Playbooks, offensive lines, receivers and coaches all affect how easy it is for a quarterback to do his job, and have a huge impact on his statistical output because it creates the margin for error that he is afforded.
Take Aaron Rodgers for example. Rodgers hasn’t changed his level of play much this year. But how he is perceived has changed because his receivers have recently been getting open more consistently and, most importantly, are catching the ball more consistently. Over the first eight games of this season, Rodgers was the target of widespread criticism. His numbers weren’t reaching expectations and the Packers were a .500 football team. Rodgers has played to roughly the same level since Week 9 but now his name is being mentioned in the MVP conversation. That is a direct reflection on how Rodgers’ supporting cast has impacted his production. After eight games, Rodgers had lost 28 completions for at least 405 yards and at least four touchdowns to receiver error. You can’t account for yards lost after the catch, hence the use of “at least” here. Rodgers was on pace to lose more yards to receiver error than any quarterback from last year except for Cam Newton.
Newton’s MVP season last year was defined by his ability to transcend his situation. Nobody in the league lost more yards to receiver error than Newton did last season. In fact nobody was close. Newton lost at least 836 yards and seven touchdowns to receiver error last year, Ryan Tannehill was closest to him in lost yards with 717, more than 100 fewer. Only Rodgers lost more touchdowns. Newton lost so many yards because he was expected to consistently push the ball downfield to receivers such as Ted Ginn and Devin Funchess. Funchess couldn’t catch anything over the first half of the season while Ginn consistently dropped perfect passes more than 30 yards downfield. Despite the inconsistencies of his receivers, Newton still finished the season with 3,837 passing yards, 35 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 636 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns.
He carried a Panthers offense that had limited weapons but also no pass protection.
Michael Oher and Mike Remmers were the Panthers’ starting offensive tackles last season. Neither player – no matter what their backstory – is a viable starter in the NFL. The coaching staff appeared to recognize this and schemed an offense that took pressure off of individual blockers and piled it onto Newton. They did this by keeping extra bodies in pass protection, giving Newton fewer receivers running downfield. With fewer receivers Newton had to anticipate how routes would develop against coverage and throw into tighter windows. He couldn’t stand and wait for someone to come wide open, he had to help them get open because his receivers were always badly outnumbered if the defense didn’t send a heavy blitz.
So far this season, Newton has 3,272 passing yards in 14 games but just 18 touchdowns to 11 interceptions with 353 rushing yards and five touchdowns. The primary reason for Newton’s lackluster passing numbers has been his supporting cast.
An already bad supporting cast was hit with injuries on the offensive line. Both Oher and Remmers have missed time this year which has led to the Panthers starting Trai Turner at right tackle. Turner is an outstanding young guard, but he is a big-bodied run blocker who isn’t built to play in space. Asking him to play right tackle has proven to be a huge problem. Turner has repeatedly been exposed in pass protection, piling the pressure onto Newton. If Turner was the only problem on the line Newton would have a chance to mask his mismatches but that hasn’t been the case. Turner’s move not only made right tackle a liability it also made right guard a problem through his absence. Regular starting center Ryan Kalil is an All-Pro caliber player – but he has only played in eight games this year. His replacement, Tyler Larsen, is a journeyman and has consistently been exposed by opposing defenders.
So Newton’s offensive line went from a major problem in 2015 to a complete disaster in 2016. But even that might have been something he could have overcome if Kelvin Benjamin hadn’t proven to be a slower Ted Ginn upon his return from injury, or if Newton was still the same threat as a runner.
Benjamin’s inconsistency and apparent lack of effort has been frustrating but not surprising based on what he did during his rookie season. Newton’s lessened running threat on the other hand was an in-season development. In Week 4, Newton suffered a concussion against the Atlanta Falcons. He sat out the following game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers before returning in Week 6. Twenty-nine of Newton’s 87 rushing attempts came in those 3.5 games. He gained 147 yards (5.1 yards per attempt) and scored two touchdowns on those 29 carries. In the 10 games he has played since being concussed, Newton has amassed 206 yards and scored three touchdowns on 58 attempts (3.6 yards per attempt). Designed quarterback runs were a focal point for the Panthers over the first month of the season but since then the play calling has largely been more traditional. Newton is still a running threat in redzone situations but even when he scrambles he is sliding much earlier than in previous seasons.
With that previous concussion, poor protection by officials and a shoulder injury that has lingered throughout the season, it’s no surprise that the Panthers are protecting their most prized asset. Carolina haven’t been in realistic playoff contention for a while now and their defensive issues make it easier to prioritize Newton’s health over giving themselves the best chance to win games.
It’s fair to say that Newton himself hasn’t played with the same consistency that he did last year. That was also to be expected because it would be very difficult for Newton to maintain the consistency and quality he showed with arguably the worst supporting cast in the league last season. Newton is still a great player and has had a very good season on the whole, it’s just not been an MVP year.
