Tuesday marked the busiest trade deadline day in NFL history, with 12 deals going down on the day before the clock stopped at 4:00 p.m. EST. Of those deals, four have obvious immediate impact for the teams making the trades. The Miami Dolphins adding former Denver Broncos edge-rusher Bradley Chubb to their ranks, the Minnesota Vikings picking up ex-Lions tight end T.J. Hockenson in an NFC North swap, the Pittsburgh Steelers getting former Washington Commanders cornerback William Jackson III for basically an acceptance of Jackson’s salary, and the Steelers also dealing receiver Clade Claypool to the receiver-light Chicago Bears.
How will these deals work for the teams making them through the rest of the 2022 NFL season? Let’s hit the tape and the advanced metrics for a deep dive.
Bradley Chubb, EDGE, Miami Dolphins
Two numbers stand out about the 2022 Miami Dolphins’ defense. Per Pro Football Reference, the Dolphins have blitzed on 28.4% of their snaps this season, which ranks 11th in the NFL. But they’ve pressured opposing quarterbacks on just 14.8% of their snaps, fourth-worst in the league.
Here are some more bad numbers: When sending six or more defenders, per Sports Info Solutions, Miami has allowed 14 passes on 18 attempts for 233 yards, five touchdowns, no interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 158.3 — that is the highest possible passer rating.
This was not a tenable model for a franchise that sees itself in contention for at least a playoff spot. So, the Dolphins traded their remaining 2023 first-round pick (the one that didn’t get taken away as punishment for tampering) to the Denver Broncos for edge-rusher Bradley Chubb. Chubb was available as part of the Broncos’ unexpected fire-sale mentality, and the Dolphins were all over this one — because they knew they needed to be. Miami also sent a 2024 fourth-round pick and running back Chase Edmonds to the Broncos, but let’s focus on what Chubb brings to this defense.
Miami already has one top-flight edge defender in Jaelan Phillips, who has four sacks, five quarterback hits, and 23 quarterback hurries on the season. But outside of that, they’ve been trying to hold it together on the other side with Melvin Ingram and Emmanuel Ogbah, and that will only get you so far. Chubb, who has six sacks, five quarterback hits, and 15 quarterback hurries this season, forces opposing offenses to think differently.
Part of the reason is that Chubb has every move to the quarterback. He’s active with his hands, he brings a wicked inside counter, and he can pinball his way right through multiple blockers. This strip-sack of Indianapolis Colts quarterback Matt Ryan in Week 5 sees Chubb wrecking both left tackle Bernhard Raimann and running back Deon Jackson on the way to blow up the play.
Here’s another strip-sack — this from Week 1 against the Seattle Seahawks, in which Chubb rode left tackle Charles Cross around the edge, and came away with a similar explosion. Nice catch by Cross to avoid making things worse, though.
When sending four or fewer pass rushers this season, the Dolphins have allowed 137 completions on 197 attempts for 1,461 yards, four touchdowns, three interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 91.4. That’s about middle of the pack, but it’s infinitely better than Miami’s pass defense with the blitz, and with the offense the Dolphins are putting on the field right now, that’s good enough. Chubb allows Miami to get pressure without committing extra defenders, and that could save this team’s bacon in a postseason sense.
T.J. Hockenson, TE, Minnesota Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings have not done a lot with multiple tight ends this season. They’ve taken just 23 snaps with two tight ends on the field, and none with three tight ends. New head coach and offensive play-designer Kevin O’Connell is a Sean McVay disciple — he was the Los Angeles Rams’ offensive coordinator in 2020 and 2021 — so it should come as no surprise that the Vikings are living in 11 personnel. They have 236 dropbacks with one running back, one tight end, and three receivers on the field, 11th-highest in the NFL. That’s 82.5% of their passing snaps.
That doesn’t mean that the Vikings don’t want a dynamic pass-catching tight end; it just means that they haven’t had one. Now, they do, in the person of former Lions target T.J. Hockenson. The Vikings traded a 2023 second-round pick and a 2024 third-round pick for Hockenson, and got a 2023 fourth-round pick, 2024 conditional fourth-round pick in the bargain. The only downside to this deal is that Hockenson, selected eighth overall in the 2019 draft, has a financial situation coming up, as his rookie contract expires after the 2023 season. But the Vikings get him for next to nothing in 2022, and his 2023 cap hit is less than $10 million, so that’s a ways off unless general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah wants to handle it sooner.
What does Hockenson bring to the Vikings? He has just 26 catches on 41 targets for 395 yards and three touchdowns, but as Jared Goff was his quarterback, and Detroit’s offense has been a dumpster fire more often than not, we have to isolate the player’s traits. In a vacuum, Hockenson can win both as a deep receiver, and as an after-catch monster.
On this 58-yard play against the Miami Dolphins last Sunday, Hockenson worked through Miami’s Cover-2, caught the ball on the sail route, housed safety Jevon Holland, and then, it was off to the races.
And this 81-yard play against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 4 showed how Hockenson can turn a simple crossing route into an explosive touchdown. That’s 75 yards after the catch, which is pretty good.
The 6-1 Vikings already have a great receiver trio in Justin Jefferson, Adan Thielen, and K.J. Osborn. They have a great offensive line, and a top back in Dalvin Cook. Kirk Cousins is an above-average quarterback who thrived in two-tight end sets last season — he completed 60 of 81 passes with two tight ends for 561 yards, 247 air yards, six touchdowns, no interceptions, and a league-high passer rating of 117.4 in those circumstances. This is a power move by a team that is already running away with its division, and knows that it needs its offense to be dynamic all the time with a below-average defense.
William Jackson III, CB, Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers have a man coverage defense. There is absolutely no question about that. Through the first eight weeks of the season, only the New Orleans Saints have played more man coverage overall, and no team has played more Cover-1 than the one Mike Tomlin oversees.
Results have been mixed. In man coverage overall, they’ve allowed 66 catches on 116 attempts for a league-high 1,046 yards, seven touchdowns, four interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 92.8. And in Cover-1, they’ve given up 48 catches on 91 attempts for 698 yards, six touchdowns, four picks, and an opponent passer rating of 81.7.
Two of those touchdowns, and a of those yards, in Cover-1 came against the Philadelphia Eagles last Sunday, as Jalen Hurts bombed that defense with deep passes to A.J. Brown. In both cases, the Steelers had no answer, whether it was with Ahkello Witherspoon or Terrell Edmiunds as the cornerback, and Minkah Fitzpatrick as the deep safety.
Jackson, who washed out with the Washington Commanders after some great work with the Bengals, has historically been a press-man cornerback. As is the case with T.J. Hockenson in Detroit’s offense, we have to isolate the player from his horrible situation, as Washington’s defense is a problem, and not in a good way.
You have to really look to find snaps of Jackson defending passes in man coverage this season, but this play against Zay Jones of the Jacksonville Jaguars will have to suffice. The Commanders are in Cover-1, Jackson has Jones all the way across the field, and while he does give up the catch, he also limits the damage.
The Steelers are probably out of the playoff picture at 2-6, and with an offense that should be locked in a shed and set afire. But Jackson does help them on the defensive side of the ball, the relief should come quickly as Pittsburgh is on its bye week. Long-term, Jackson is under contract through next season.
Chase Claypool, WR, Chicago Bears
The Steelers made two impact deals on Tuesday, and on the surface, this would seem to negatively affect an offense that ranks dead last in points per game at 15.0. Nonetheless, they dealt receiver Chase Claypool to the Chicago Bears for Chicago’s second-round pick — not the one they got from the Baltimore Ravens for linebacker Roquan Smith. Right now, that pick projects as the 43rd overall in 2023, which indicates a process in which a team that is looking to next year, and they’re building up assets.
What does Claypool do for Chicago’s offense, as offensive coordinator Luke Getsy tries to get that right with second-year quarterback Justin Fields? Selected with the 49th overall pick in the 2020 draft, Claypool has disappointed since his 11-touchdown rookie season. He has just 32 catches on 48 targets for 311 yards and one touchdown in 2022, and while we can lay a lot of that at the feet of Steelers offensive coordinator Matt Canada and rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett, the tape shows Claypool to be a toolsy player who struggles to maintain consistency and productivity despite those athletic assets.
There are times when Claypool will just bend the Matrix, as he did on this 26-yard play agsinst the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 6. Claypool ran through the Bucs’ intermediate defense, took linebacker Lavonte David to a place he didn’t want to be, and made an amazing adjustment catch to the boundary. If he could do this all the time, Claypool would be anybody’s idea of a first-tier receiver.
The problem is that for a guy with his traits — 6-foot-4, 238 pounds, and the ability to grease cornerbacks in the open field with his speed — Claypool is still working on too many of the fundamentals. He should be a far better separator than he is, and the little things can trip him up. Like getting open on a simple pick play against the Cleveland Browns in Week 3.
If Getsy can more often unleash the version of Chase Claypool that is only occasionally seen, giving up a high second-round pick for that is an easy decision. Since he was a second-round pick, he’s under contract through 2023 for negligible money, and that gives the Bears a while to assess the possibilities.
Which general manager Ryan Poles seems to understand.
Bears GM Ryan Poles to Chicago media, asked if Chase Claypool will be a longterm piece of the franchise:
“We’re gonna take the season and see how everything works out and go from there.”
— Chris Adamski (@C_AdamskiTrib) November 1, 2022
