Friday’s Racing Tips
Newmarket’s July Festival is always a summer highlight and day two of this year’s meeting is headlined by the Falmouth Stakes (15.35), a Group 1 in which jockey Ryan Moore has an eye-catching recent record.
In fact, you only have to look back 12 months to find the triple champion jockey’s latest success in the race, when he partnered Porta Fortuna to win the one mile contest for Donnacha O’Brien, while he also partnered Integral (2014), Alice Springs (2016) and Roly Poly (2017) to win the race, the latter two for Donnacha’s father Aidan.
Now, the combination of Moore and Aidan O’Brien can strike for a third time and give the pilot his fifth winner in a race that has gone to the Emerald Isle in four of the last nine renewals.
Falmouth Stakes Tips
The Ballydoyle team saddles January this time around and, despite winning just two of her eight races, she still looks to be improving. Already a Group 1 second over on Newmarket’s Rowley course in last year’s Fillies’ Mile, she put up a career-best when beaten less than two lengths into third behind Cercene, in the Group 1 Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot last month.
A major plus for her is that she receives 9lbs from all the older horses in the field and that could prove beneficial come the business end of the contest, with betting sites pricing her up accordingly.
The achievements of both Cinderella’s Dream and Crimson Advocate both read well in context but if O’Brien can get January to the July Course in the same shape as she was at the Berkshire track, then she could take all the beating.
John Gosden has trained the winner either as the sole licensee or with son Thady on four occasions and with their string firing on all cylinders, Crimson Advocate can perhaps eclipse stable companion Running Lion and prove the main danger to the selection.
Duchess of Cambridge Stakes Tips
The Duchess of Cambridge Stakes (14.25) is a race that can throw up the occasional shock result, not least last year’s 12/1 scorer Arabian Dusk.
However, Venetian Sun looks a very worthy short-priced favourite on horse racing betting sites for this renewal, after beating the re-opposing Argentine Tango in a fillies’ novice event at Carlisle in May.
The latter has subsequently gone on to win both the Hilary Needler at Beverley and the Listed Empress Stakes over the same course and distance as Friday’s race.
She has clearly improved but so too has Karl Burke’s filly, who went straight from Carlisle to the Group 3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot, where she was a decisive winner. That is the strongest piece of form on offer here and she can make a successful step up to Group 2 company.
For those not wanting to take too short a price, these two leading players do look genuine forecast material.
13.50 Newmarket Tips
A field of just eight has been declared for the Bet365 Handicap (13.50) despite a winning pot of over £51,000 and the value on betting apps looks to be in the Simon and Ed Crisford-trained War Hawk.
Ryan Moore has been booked for the hat-trick bid, which looks significant, while the gelding’s style of running has made it hard for the handicapper to get a firm handle on him.
He’s progressed in all his last four starts, winning at Chester in May and following up shortly after that at Epsom’s Derby meeting. The front pair were more than 2lb clear there and a 5lb rise does not look insurmountable. There looks to be some value in his price, as he may not have stopped improving just yet and he can be backed each-way if preferred, with the likely favourite, King’s Charter, an interesting newcomer to handicaps.
15.00 Newmarket Tips
The Bet365 Trophy (15.00) looks wide open on paper. Ian Williams is mob-handed, with three runners and Dancing In Paris looks capable of landing this Heritage Handicap.
With nothing obviously well treated, those with solid form in similar contests and proven over this 1m6f trip looks the ones to concentrate on.
Last-time winner Insanity comes into that category but he has a bit more to prove stamina-wise and it was a particularly slow race that he won at Ayr.
Endless Victory was a very respectable fifth in Royal Ascot’s Copper Horse Stakes, over a similar trip. He could have a bigger say here, while Story Horse is still going the right way and his second at Goodwood last time was also the best form he’s produced.
Dancing In Paris finished just behind him that day, which was his best on turf and he backed that up with a close second in the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle last month, which was better still.
Arguably, he deserves to win a prize like this and if he can equal or better that latest effort this could be the day.
17.20 Newmarket Tips
There’s collateral form between the top two in the market in the debenhams.com Handicap (17.20), with Nogo’s Dream having narrowly beaten Grandlad at Windsor last time.
On that occasion, Oisin Murphy was on board the Richard Hughes-trained Nogo’s Dream. This time, Ryan Moore is booked and Murphy rides Master Of My Fate.
The Moore-Hughes combination is the same that won this race last year, while Moore’s only previous ride on Nogo’s Dream was a winning one.
Therefore, there are a few reasons to side with the gelded son of Oasis Dream, despite a 4lb pull for the James Horton-trained Grandlad, for three-quarters of a length.
Generally consistent, Nogo’s Dream can build further on that latest career-best and add another win.
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