Top story: PM gambles on success without unionists
Hello, Warren Murray with you as the Briefing week draws to a close.
Boris Johnson has insisted he is “very confident” his Brexit deal will be approved after it is presented to the House of Commons tomorrow. For the latest, head straight to our live blog. The arithmetic looks daunting for the PM after the Democratic Unionists (DUP) insisted they could not support the government’s position. “I want to stress that this is a great deal for our country, for the UK; I also believe that it is a very good deal for our friends in the EU,” Johnson said at the European council in Brussels where EU leaders gave the nod.
Johnson’s deal differs principally from Theresa May’s by swapping the Irish border “backstop” for a four-year customs alignment between Northern Ireland and the EU. Northern Ireland would be legally in the UK customs territory but practically in the EU customs unions. A complex mechanism would allow the Stormont power-sharing assembly to vote after four years to extend or end the alignment. Without the DUP’s 10 MPs, Johnson is likely to need the support of some Labour MPs and the 21 Tory rebels he expelled from the parliamentary party in September. Pro-remain MPs appeared to be pulling back from trying tomorrow to attach a second referendum to the deal – fearing they do not have enough support and preferring to wait and see if the deal passes.
Heather Stewart and Lisa O’Carroll write that while this weekend’s vote will be extremely tight, it could be a rare win-win for Johnson. “If the PM’s deal is passed by MPs on Saturday, he’s well on the way to getting Brexit done. If it’s rejected, and he is forced into requesting an extension against his wishes, it will provide a clear, public demonstration of his claim that he wants to get on and take Britain out of the EU – and recalcitrant MPs have stopped him.”
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Ceasefire questioned – Kurdish fighters appear to have rejected demands they withdraw from Turkey’s self-declared “safe zone” inside Syria during a five-day ceasefire agreed between the US vice-president, Mike Pence, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the Turkish president. The commander of the Kurdish SDF said he had only agreed to a ceasefire in two areas of heavy fighting, while the Kurdish political leader Saleh Muslim told local television: “We will not accept the [Turkish] occupation of northern Syria.” The Pence-Erdoğan deal made no mention of the presence of Syrian government and Russian troops, who were invited in by the SDF to help defend against the Turkish attack and are not bound by the terms of the US-Turkish agreement. Washington appears to have sold the Kurds a completely different deal to the one with Turkey that Trump is claiming as a diplomatic coup, writes Julian Borger. In five days Erdoğan is due to fly to Moscow to meet Putin. That is where the real outline of a settlement will be hammered out, analysts say.
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Mexico chaos – Police in Mexico arrested but then had to to release a son of the drug lord “El Chapo” overnight as gun battles raged in the city of Culiacán. Masked gunmen threw up burning barricades and exchanged fire with security forces after Ovidio Guzmán López was taken into custody. Mexico’s security and public protection secretary, Alfonso Durazo, confirmed the arrest but later said the backlash was so serious that in order to safeguard the citizens of Culiacán, the authorities had decided to “suspend our actions”. It was later confirmed that the young Guzmán was let go.
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DNA tests miss cancer risk – DIY genetic tests being marketed direct to consumers that claim to predict the likelihood of cancer are “woefully incomplete” and can falsely reassure people they have received the all-clear when they actually have a heightened risk, experts have warned. The direct-to-consumer tests give negative results to the vast majority of those carrying DNA mutations in the genes under investigation, a study by a clinical genetic testing company found. The US study analysed the DNA of 270,806 patients who were referred by healthcare providers for testing of the MUTYH gene, and 119,328 who had been referred for BRCA1/2 genetic testing. It showed that for both tests, the majority of those carrying mutations would not be spotted.
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Menopause support – Channel 4 is launching a menopause policy for staff that includes giving women access to flexible working arrangements and private, cool and quiet workspaces if they feel unwell. The policy will support employees experiencing symptoms such as hot flushes, anxiety and fatigue. They will also be offered an assessment of their working environment, support and guidance, while the broadcaster’s leadership and HR teams have been given special training in how to support staff. The broadcaster announced its dedicated action on World Menopause Day. According to research, 59% of women in the workplace who experience menopausal symptoms say they have a negative impact on their work.
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Moony McMoonface? – The UK’s first moon rover is due to touch down in 2021, courtesy of a private company called Spacebit. The four-legged “robot spider” is a cube 10cm across and weighs 1.5kg. It will be transported to the moon by the Astrobotic Peregrine lander, which was awarded $79.5m (£62.3m) by Nasa in May as part of its commercial lunar payload services programme.
The lander will be carrying up to 14 Nasa payloads and an equal number from private companies, including Spacebit, and other countries. The rover will test the use of legs to scuttle across the moon’s uneven surface, which could lead to larger versions able to crawl into hollow lava tubes and explore the lunar subsurface.
Today in Focus podcast: Naming and shaming polluters
Global environment editor Jonathan Watts discusses the Guardian’s investigation into the fossil fuel industry and the structures that need to change to halt the climate emergency. And: Gary Younge on Donald Trump’s mental health.
Lunchtime read: ‘We can’t afford to go back to the bad old days’
As Boris Johnson pursues a “border in the Irish Sea” to get a Brexit deal with the EU, Rory Carroll asks the leaders and citizens of Northern Ireland what they think. “A number of unionists and loyalists are angry, but the political process needs to take their fears away,” said Billy Hutchinson, a Belfast city councillor with the Progressive Unionist party (PUP), which is aligned with the Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF) paramilitary group. “It’s not the time to ratchet all this up. We can’t afford to go back to the bad old days. We won’t.”
“There seems little appetite for mass unruly protest,” Carroll writes. “Unionism is divided over Brexit: 47% of pro-union voters voted remain in the 2016 referendum. And there is a collective weariness, a desire to move on.” Shoppers interviewed on Belfast’s Shankill Road, where murals commemorate the Queen and loyalist paramilitaries, said they disapproved of a sea border but did not plan to mount any barricades. “You’re not necessarily that happy with it but you want something that works for everyone,” said one woman. Peter Shirlow, unionism expert at the University of Liverpool, said: “A lorry sitting in Larne having its contents checked won’t drive them back to violence. The narrative is changing. Northern Ireland is not as dysfunctional as you think.”
Sport
Eddie Jones has urged England to channel the samurai spirit for their Rugby World Cup quarter-final against Australia on Saturday after springing a huge surprise by dropping George Ford and restoring the out-of-sorts Owen Farrell to fly-half. Jones’s opposite number, Michael Cheika, has selected 19-year-old Jordan Petaia at outside-centre – the youngest player to start there in a World Cup – but says he trusts him “infinitely”.
Ed Woodward believes the perception he and other non-experts are making decisions over football policy at Manchester United is “insulting”, though the executive vice-chairman admits recruitment strategy was dysfunctional in the wake of Sir Alex Ferguson’s retirement. England’s spinners will be able to draw on local knowledge in New Zealand after Jeetan Patel, the former international who captains Warwickshire, was hired on a short-term coaching deal. In an interview with the Guardian, Sean and Matty Longstaff, Newcastle’s midfield brothers, have discussed their different paths to the first team, Matty’s debut goal against Manchester United and why their family could rival the Nevilles. The former England footballer Paul Gascoigne has been found not guilty of sexually assaulting a woman he kissed without consent on a train. And the Lawn Tennis Association faces questions over abuse reform after Martin Corrie, its former president who resigned last month, was nominated for prestigious re‑election to the board of the International Tennis Federation.
Business
China’s economic growth slowed more than expected to 6.0% year on year in the third quarter, the weakest pace in more than 27 years, as demand at home and abroad faltered amid a bruising Sino-US trade war. Japanese shares inched higher after high-tech companies jumped on upbeat earnings from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC). The pound traded near a five-month high against the dollar and the euro after the Brexit deal between Boris Johnson and the EU. Sterling is worth around $1.285 and €1.155 at the moment while the FTSE is lower prior to the open.
The papers
We have a separate, full roundup of the papers today – our usual summary follows.
Johnson’s progress in getting his deal features on the front pages today, though most papers make it clear that this is not a done deal. The Times says: “Final hurdle in sight as Johnson gets his deal”, while the Guardian reports: “Johnson gets his Brexit deal – now it’s a numbers game”.
The Mirror says: “On the brink of Brexit … once again”, the i has: “Johnson gets his EU deal – now for the tricky part” and the FT says “DUP veto threat leaves Johnson’s Brexit deal gamble in the balance”.
Other papers are sounding warnings to MPs to vote for the deal. The Telegraph quotes from the prime minister: “It’s my deal or no deal”, the Daily Mail features a picture of Johnson pointing, with the headline: “He’s done his duty. Now MPs must do theirs”, the Sun strikes a rhyme: “Get real … take the deal” and the Express says: “Just do it!”
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