Freshpet (NASDAQ: FRPT) insiders called the bottom in their stock with numerous insider purchases logged in September.
Down approximately 70% from the 2025 high, the market sell-off was not unwarranted but was incredibly overextended, offering deep value in this high-quality stock. Freshpet faces headwinds in 2025 but continues to grow at an industry-leading pace, with its operational quality and free cash flow driving value for investors.
Data from InsiderTrades reveals six purchases from six insiders in September. Buyers included five directors and the company’s general counsel, and are noteworthy for several reasons. Among them is the fact that this is the first insider activity in nearly a year, and the last was selling.
Another is that these insiders already owned significant shares of stock and had no reason to buy more. As it stands, the insiders, including larger shareholders, own about 4.5% of the stock.
Institutional activity also aligns with a market bottom for Freshpet stock. Institutions and large individual owners control nearly 99% of the shares, creating a potent force that sold in Q2, aligning with the market downdraft, and then reverted to buying in Q3.
The Q3 activity aligns with the market bottom and is expected to provide a lift, assuming the trend continues. That trend will continue, based on Q3 results, which offer no new reasons to sell and many reasons to buy.
Freshpet: Slowing Growth Is Priced Into This Market
Frespet’s selloff is due in large part to slowing growth compounded by macroeconomic headwinds and diminishing guidance. However, the Q3 release and guidance update suggest the weakness is priced in, and that a deep value is now present.
The stock isn’t cheap, trading at over 45x its 2025 consensus estimate, but the growth outlook remains robust. Analysts forecast a sustainable low-double-digit revenue CAGR and margin improvements, driving a high-double-digit earnings CAGR. In this scenario, FRPT trades at 10x its 2030 EPS forecast and 5x its 2035 forecast, suggesting this stock could rise by 100% to 400% over the next few years.
The analyst trends also suggest that this stock could rise by triple digits over the coming quarters. Although the 2025 trends align with the stock price downdraft, including numerous price target reductions, the floor is set near Q3’s lows, the consensus forecasts a 100% stock price increase, and the guidance update will likely lead to reaffirmed price targets, if not a resumption of bullish behavior.
Fresphet’s FY2025 guidance update is favorable despite being restated at the low end of the previous range. The cause of the reduction is macroeconomic and beyond the company’s control. Meanwhile, it is expected to grow at a 13% year-over-year pace, reduce capex, and generate positive free cash flow for the year.
The positive free cash flow is significant because the company has sustained it for three quarters and appears to have turned a corner, bringing the possibility of leveraged earnings and free cash flow growth when macroeconomic conditions are more favorable for retail stocks.
Freshpet Jumps 5% on Results; 100% Possible Within a Few Months
The Q3 release triggered a 5% premarket jump in FRPT’s share price, confirming support and potential for a rebound. The potential for rebound is also evident in the trading volume and MACD indicators, which reveal increased activity as the price action approached deep-value levels and an extremely overextended market.
The MACD shows that bulls are already in control; with a catalyst in play, they can drive the action up to the 150-day and 150-week EMA, which are the critical resistance targets, with relative ease. A move to the 150-week EMA would put this market within striking distance of a 100% price increase from early November levels.
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The article "Freshpet Insiders Called the Bottom: Now It’s Time to Buy" first appeared on MarketBeat.
