Just over a month away, Moldova’s parliamentary elections are shaping up as a defining moment for the small Eastern European state. The outcome will set the course for its politics at home and its place in Europe, as warnings grow over Russian attempts to sway the vote.
The pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), led by President Maia Sandu, hopes to win a new mandate to push ahead with European Union accession.
But Moldova’s Intelligence and Security Service has warned of Russian disinformation campaigns, vote-buying and wider destabilisation efforts designed to block its pro-EU path.
Outside allies
These threats have amplified the need to bolster Moldova’s defences, and the country is seeking outside allies.
However, this does not include pursuing NATO membership, which is ruled out due to the fact that under its constitution, Moldova is officially a "neutral" state.
"NATO has a very negative image in Moldova," said Veaceslav Ionita, an expert on economic policy with the IDIS Viitorul think tank and a former MP for the pro-EU Liberal Democratic Party PLDM.
He attributes this to "many years of [Russian] manipulation", adding: "No party is ready to discuss seriously a NATO membership."
Moldovan strategists are trying to circumvent political reluctance to join NATO by making deals with individual countries.
In March 2024, Sandu signed a landmark defence cooperation agreement in Paris with French President Emmanuel Macron. The move marked a significant deepening of bilateral ties between the two countries, aimed at reinforcing Moldova’s sovereignty and security in the face of Russian “threats, pressure and intimidation," according to Ionita.
The pact covers a broad range of defence cooperation measures: training Moldovan military personnel, intelligence sharing, joint consultations, enhanced airspace control capabilities, military telecommunications, logistics support and financial oversight of defence spending.
It also opens the door for the transfer of French military technology – as illustrated by Moldova’s acquisition of the Ground Master 200 radar system from French defence firm Thales, giving Chisinau improved aerial surveillance capabilities.
France strengthens support for Moldova as Russian destabilisation efforts persist
According to Ionita, France is currently regarded as the country that is most concerned for Moldova.
"France is number one," he told RFI. Its popularity, he believes, is also in large part due to Macron’s close relationship with Sandu.
"For many years, polls [showed] that people favoured Russian President Vladimir Putin as the most important foreign leader to trust."
But he had to yield to Angela Merkel – when "German investment [came] to Moldova and German companies created lots of jobs," according to Ionita.
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky became the most popular foreign leader in Moldova. But today, it is Macron.
"Nobody knows here who the [new] German leader is," according to Ionita. "They [believe] that France is now the only big country having Moldova on its agenda."
France’s engagement with the country builds on cooperation dating back to 1998, but has taken on a new urgency against the backdrop of Russia’s war in Ukraine and its continued military presence in the breakaway Moldovan region of Transnistria.
Aside from France, Moldova has forged military alliances with Romania and the United States, to strengthen its capacity to respond to both conventional and hybrid threats.
Its only cooperation with NATO takes the form of joint exercises, civilian emergency preparedness and technical assistance. While Chisinau is being cautious not to breach the country's constitutional neutrality, it views such partnerships as essential to shoring up its defence in the absence of a formal alliance guarantee.
Frequent cyber attacks
Moldovan authorities have accused the Kremlin of orchestrating or supporting political movements aimed at derailing the country’s pro-Western policies.
Frequent cyberattacks, propaganda operations and economic pressure have contributed to a perception of an ever-present Russian threat.
Viewed in this light, the defence pact with France is about more than military hardware, t’s also about resilience – from cyberspace to public institutions.
In May 2024, Moldova formalised its “Security and Defence Partnership” with the EU, designed to fight hybrid threats, improve cyber-resilience, and safeguard democratic processes. The agreement reflects a recognition in Brussels that Moldova’s democratic stability is deeply entwined with its security.
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EU ambitions
But the country's larger ambition – at least in some political quarters – is full EU membership, which would increase the level of security against possible Russian threats.
For Moldova, EU membership would also provide a massive boost to its economy.
In 2000, Chisinau began opening up free economic zones – areas where foreign companies can operate under a lower tax regime than in the rest of the country. These attracted mainly German investment.
"The biggest growth [since Moldova became independent from the USSR in 1991] took place between 2010 and 2019," according to Ionita, the period in which the free economic zones started to flourish.
A second boost to the country’s economy came in 2014, after Russia banned the import of Moldovan fruits and agricultural products, and Chisinau then signed a free trade agreement with Brussels.
The Association Agreement, which includes the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA), was signed in June 2014 and has been in full effect since July 2016. It forms the basis of Moldova's current trade relations with the EU.
“Everyone understands that EU membership means industry development, good salary, good infrastructure and quality of life,” says Ionita.
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Since being granted EU candidate status in June 2022, Moldova has undertaken sweeping reforms in governance, its judiciary and anti-corruption mechanisms – steps that are preconditions for accession talks.
In June 2024, Brussels formally opened accession negotiations with Chisinau, but the overall accession process remains lengthy and politically sensitive.
Sandu has tied her political project firmly to EU membership, seeing it as the only viable path to long-term security and prosperity. The government plans to press ahead with reforms irrespective of political turbulence, but the outcome of the 28 September elections will be decisive in determining the pace – and perhaps the viability – of Moldova’s European course.
However, opposition to EU membership remains strong. According to Ionita, even if there is a majority in favour, the pro-Russian parts of the country remain vocal.
Around one third of Moldova's population is pro-Russian, with stronger support in certain regions – the separatist Transnistria region, where Russian troops are stationed; the Autonomous Territorial Unit of Gagauzia in the south, and parts of northern Moldova.
Around half the population is pro-EU – with the rest either centrists, or undecided.
