TSB customers must wait until Tuesday morning to find out if they can get into their online bank accounts.
The bank itself seems to have gone quiet (customer service shut down at 11pm and reopens at 7am).
So we’re going to wrap up for the day too. Goodnight, and good luck to everyone affected by these problems. GW
Updated
Photographer, and Green Party candidate, Nicola Albon confirms that the problems still aren’t resolved....
Still can’t get into @TSB app more than 24 hours after it was supposed to be working again! And unable to use my TSB debit card to pay for things online pic.twitter.com/TuVzsyBXqn
— Nicola Albon (@nicolaalbon) April 23, 2018
And when I try again to get into @TSB app, it asks me if I want to set up the app again. No I don’t. You’ve already made me move from one app to another recently. Very poor customer service pic.twitter.com/ixGKCgsPlv
— Nicola Albon (@nicolaalbon) April 23, 2018
TSB customer Nick Mays says he’s finally got online.....but is still planning take his business elsewhere.
Hallelujah!!! TSB online banking is back! Only 29 hours late! And too late to convince me NOT to switch bank accounts! Appalling service! #TSB #tsbdown #tsbfail
— Nick Mays (@DonnyScribe) April 23, 2018
Other customers are worried that the problems won’t be fixed by Tuesday morning....
@TSB Any chance you’re gonna get this sorted by the morning? This is not acceptable I want access to my accounts
— Michelle (@MichelleE_Stark) April 23, 2018
One TSB mortgage-holder got a rather nasty shock when she managed to log into her account:
@TSB @TSB_News why does my mortgage account say I am in arrears of $83,000 🤔 for a start my mortgage should be in GBP and I am also NOT in arrears! pic.twitter.com/6GcovVagTV
— suzanna cox (@suzanna_l_cox) April 23, 2018
Becky Dracup of Liverpool is another less-than-satisfied customer tonight, after struggling to speak to anyone at TSB:
Fuming with @tsb. Can’t access internet banking. Can’t make online purchases. Can’t speak to anyone on the phone.
— Becky Dracup (@BeckyDracup) April 23, 2018
When you’ve been on hold for over an hour with @TSB and when you finally get through the conversation lasts all of 30 seconds. Very helpful.
— Becky Dracup (@BeckyDracup) April 23, 2018
TSB’s IT woes make the front page of the Financial Times tomorrow.
Tuesday’s FINANCIAL TIMES: “US hints at easing Rusal sanctions if Putin-linked oligarch sells out” #bbcpapers #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/W79iq30c1J
— Allie Hodgkins-Brown (@AllieHBNews) April 23, 2018
The FT focuses on the prospect that City and data watchdogs will savage the bank, saying:
Regulators are probing computer problems at TSB that left many customers of the UK bank unable to check their accounts and gave some access to other people’s money after it switched to new systems over the weekend.
The problems, which provoked a flurry of complaints on social media, followed a scheduled shutdown of TSB’s online and mobile banking applications over the weekend while it transferred 1.3bn customer records from its former parent Lloyds Banking Group.
The Information Commissioner’s Office — the UK privacy watchdog — said: “We are aware of a potential data breach in relation to the TSB and are making enquiries.”
The Financial Conduct Authority said it was “aware of the issue” and was “liaising with the firm”....
As we head into the night, TSB are still telling customers that they don’t know when the IT outage will be fixed.
I'm sorry Dan, we don't have any timescales that we're able to provide at the moment. However, we are working to fix it as fast as we can. I appreciate how frustrating this must be and I can't apologise enough that we're unable to be more specific. Jon
— TSB (@TSB) April 23, 2018
Lib Dem peer blasts TSB CEO
TSB’s chief executive Paul Pester has kept a low profile today - he’s not tweeted about the IT problems at all.
Liberal Democrat peer Paul Scriven has laid into Pester on Twitter this evening, calling for answers about what’s gone wrong:
@PaulPester after getting text to say my balance is £0 decided to check. No access. Just remind my how much did your parent group say this IT change will save? Can tell you you've lost your reputation!
— Paul Scriven (@Paulscriven) April 23, 2018
TSB unveils new banking tech platform, Proteo4UK and @TSB CEO @PaulPester says it will save £100m a year. Like to explain to us your customers how we will save from your IT chaos?
— Paul Scriven (@Paulscriven) April 23, 2018
@TSB_PubAffairs and @TSB @PaulPester stop telling me and other customers you have an intermittent problem. You clearly have a major systems failure . Be honest. It's bad enough for us your customers without you taking us for mugs
— Paul Scriven (@Paulscriven) April 23, 2018
Bookseller Isabel MacNeill would also like to hear from Pester:
@PaulPester - nothing to say to your millions of customers who are unable to access their accounts?
— Isabel MacNeill (@isabelembo) April 23, 2018
Updated
It’s now 27 hours since TSB’s migration to a new IT platform was meant to conclude - and some users, such as GMB official Rachelle Wilkins, are still in the dark:
Have banked with TSB for 30yrs,cant access my accounts,for 3 days now,havent a clue whats going on,this is turning into a crisis!!
— Rachelle Wilkins (@WilkinsRachelle) April 23, 2018
Data visualisation firm Bright Analytics is worried that it won’t be able to pay its employees, or settle other bills, until TSB fixes its problems:
hi @tsb. appreciate you're having a terrible time today and must be sick of hearing from angry customers but I have a business to run and still cannot login to online banking. I need to make payments, I need to pay staff. what is happening??? a proper update is long overdue.
— Bright Analytics (@brightanalytics) April 23, 2018
Many users are still reporting that TSB is refusing to accept their login details, including PR and social media executive Cara Elizabeth:
@TSB why is internet banking down again after a weekend of being offline? I keep trying to log in and it’s now saying my user ID is incorrect, after 8 years of using the same one...
— Cara Elizabeth (@CaraRimmer) April 23, 2018
The state of play at TSB tonight
Time for a quick recap, for anyone tuning in or seeking the latest information.
-
UK bank TSB is struggling to get to grips with a botched system upgrade that has left some customers unable to use online and mobile banking services.
- TSB’s services were meant to come online at 6pm Sunday night, following a major IT migration over the weekend.
But scores of users report that they’re still unable to access banking services, more than a day later.
- There’s no clarity on when the situation will be fixed, leaving customers unable to pay bills, check they have received money, or access other banking services.
Some customers have even reported seeing the wrong account details, sparking fears of a data breach.
-
TSB has repeatedly apologised, insisting that it is working as hard as it can to fix the issue. But many customers are demanding compensation, and threatening to leave the bank.
@TSB Surely you have an ETA you're working to, to fix the problem? 3 days without any access to my account is pathetic. Transfer to Nationwides 5% interest rate is looking like a good move...
— Ben (@ben_2951) April 23, 2018
@TSB are you going to compensate your customers for this chaos? I have been trying to move money between account to pay bills and can’t. @TheFCA I hope you are taking this seriously
— Simon Woolf (@SimonWoolf_00) April 23, 2018
-
The project involved moving TSB away from systems owned by Lloyds Banking Group (who spun out TSB in 2013), and onto a new IT platform.
- TSB’s owner, Spain’s Sabedell, has risked further anger by claiming that the migration has been a success - even as UK customers reported problems.
-
UK regulators are now monitoring the situation.
TSB could potentially be fined by the Financial Conduct Authority (the City watchdog) and the Information Commissioner.
Updated
This is important.
Any TSB customers who discover an unexpected windfall in their accounts this week should not rush out and spend it. If you do, you could be forced to pay it back... or worse.
Lee Boyce of This Is Money explains:
Legally, if a sum of cash is accidentally paid into your account and you know it isn’t yours, you are liable to pay it back.
Keeping and spending money wrongly placed into your account could lead to you being charged with retaining wrongful credit under the Theft Act 1968.
Two sisters were sent to prison in 2008 after going on a spending spree with cash that wasn’t theirs. The then Abbey Bank had wrongly credited £135,000 into one of their accounts.
It took the bank two weeks to spot the mistake.
The official advice is to contact your bank and alert it to the mistake - but many TSB customers say that call waiting times are currently extremely long as it battles the meltdown.
TSB suffers online banking meltdown - what are your rights? https://t.co/IApXBZRMFC
— This is Money (@thisismoney) April 23, 2018
Criminal paralegal James Ashton has found himself caught up in TSB’s problems:
@TSB why is your internet banking STILL not working when news outlets have reported that you’re back online?!?
— James Ashton (@JamesWAshton) April 23, 2018
TSB’s hard-pressed social media team are repeating the same generic statement to scores of customers, along the lines of:
We’re really sorry to hear that you’re experiencing problems accessing Online Banking. Unfortunately, there are some intermittent problems affecting this service so please bear with us.
We’re working as hard as we can to resolve this. In the meantime, please try again later and sorry once more for the inconvenience.
That really isn’t enough to address the concerns of customers who can’t make payments, or even check how much money is in their account.
For example:
Sick to death of @TSB now🙄 I just want to access my account so I can brace/limit myself as to how skint im gonna be till payday!!
— Amy-Jane (@amyjane0305) April 23, 2018
Updated
One of the most alarming elements of this mess is that some TSB customers say they saw the account details of other customers - a potentially serious breach.
One account holder, called Matthew Neal, says he logged last night and found himself looking at someone else’s £35,000 savings account,plus an £11,000 Isa, and a business account!
A TSB customer from Hertfordshire was given access to someone else's £35,000 savings account, £11,000 Isa, and a business account when he logged onto his account last night https://t.co/8gfY2C6hlH
— delcrookes (@hairydel) April 23, 2018
TSB claims to have such issues, but other customers have reported similar problems today:
@TSB I seriously can't believe I had access to someone else's account via the online banking app. This is a serious data breached. TSB get the finger out all this was meant to be sorted by 6pm yesterday 🙄🙄🙄
— jacqueline (@jacohara88) April 23, 2018
Managed to log in to @TSB for a short while before it froze and kicked me out. Also received a mini statement text message today for someone else’s account! #Shambles #DataProtection
— Chris (@chrisp1982) April 23, 2018
Britain’s financial ombudsman, which mediates on complaints between customers and financial firms, is also taking an interest:
We’re sorry to hear that lots of you have had problems with your TSB accounts today, and some of you have had trouble getting through to them. TSB have said they’re working to sort things out, but if you’ve been affected please contact TSB in the first instance.
— Financial Ombudsman (@financialombuds) April 23, 2018
TSB’s systems were meant to be up and running after its IT migration 24 hours ago.
But instead, its social media account is being hammered by increasingly angry customers, who STILL can’t get into their accounts.
@tsb internet banking STILL down! Not good enough! I have people and bills to pay, I can’t just pop into a branch either, some of us have to work during your branch opening hours. You have let so many customers down!
— Mel Junior (@MelJr1987) April 23, 2018
Three children and no money, thanks @TSB I will be leaving you once I have my money. IVE ALSO BEEN ON HOLD FOR AN HOUR!!!!!!!
— Loz (@lauraagloverr) April 23, 2018
The list now includes a contestant from this year’s series of MasterChef, furniture designer Fiona Harris:
@tsb @TSB_News Please let me know when I can access my account. Its now 24 hrs + since it should have been online. Can't even use desktop site. I can access personal account but urgently need access to business online banking. Timeframe would be good. This is costing money!
— Fee Harris (@fiona1918) April 23, 2018
Could TSB be fined over IT blunders?
TSB risks being hit with a hefty fine for the problems suffered by its customers, says Iain Withers of the Telegraph.
Both the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and the Information Commissioner’s Office (ICO) said they were monitoring the situation. The watchdogs have the power to investigate and potentially fine TSB for a system failure or data breach respectively.
Could @TSB end up with a whopping fine for it's data breach? The Information Commissioner's Office says: “We are aware of a potential data breach in relation to the TSB and are making enquiries.”
— simon read (@simonnread) April 23, 2018
Research technician Cameron Hill has found a way back into his TSB account......
Finally gained access to my @TSB online banking via the mobile app. Seemed that clearing the cached data for the TSB app and setting up online banking again on the phone did the trick.
— Cameron Hill (@CameronHill13) April 23, 2018
For those on Android devices try these steps to gain access to @TSB online banking via mobile
— Cameron Hill (@CameronHill13) April 23, 2018
1. Go to Settings>Apps>TSB
2. Press TSB>Storage
3. Press Clear Data
4. Open the TSB Mobile Banking App, enter mobile banking number (not account number) and memorable information
5. Select preferred phone number for 6-digit code and enter into the device.
— Cameron Hill (@CameronHill13) April 23, 2018
6. You should now have access to the TSB app.
I may be lucky and just happen to have access but have tried this method twice now and has worked both times and continually thereafter.
I’m afraid I can’t test it myself, but it might be worth attempting.....
TSB’s parent company, Banca Sabadell, thinks the IT migration is a success!
It has released a press release trumpeting the move, even though TSB has admitted there have been problems.
Apparently the new IT platform is a “milestone” for the bank (although it may feel more like a millstone for some customers right now).
It says:
Banco Sabadell has successfully completed the TSB technology migration. The implementation of the new Proteo4UK platform represents a new milestone in the history of Banco Sabadell Group, and particularly in its progress in terms of the bank’s internationalisation. It is also the first ever project outside of Spain in which the bank has created a new banking platform from scratch and completed a large scale migration of the platform.
The Chairman, Josep Oliu, has emphasised that “with this migration, Sabadell has proven its technological management capacity, not only in national migrations, but also on an international scale. The new Proteo4UK platform is an excellent starting point for the organic growth of the business and the improvement of TSB’s efficiency”.
Oliu also stated that “more than 5.4 million customers are now integrated into the new platform, which allows us to grow in a market as mature and highly competitive as the UK market.” Equally, the Chairman has also stated that the migration will provide a “greater competitive capacity and increased value creation for our franchise”.
City AM’s Emma Haslett points out that TSB hopes to slash its costs through this IT move.
It's worth pointing out @TSB's current predicament is why banks' IT systems are SO ancient and creaky. Upgrading millions of accounts is always going to be nightmarish. IT was a huge factor in Lloyds' decision not to buy the Co-op Bank back in 2013.
— Emma Haslett (@emmahaslett) April 23, 2018
Unfortunately, owner Sabadell has suggested the 'upgrade' will halve operating costs, generating £100m of savings a year. Which is likely to go down like a house on fire with customers...
— Emma Haslett (@emmahaslett) April 23, 2018
Perhaps some of those saving could be put towards a compensation pot for those who suffer losses through today’s problems.
It’s now more than 21 hours since TSB’s online banking systems were due to be working again... but some customers are still experiencing problems.
Jewellery maker Barbara Adamiec reports that it’s damaging her business today:
It's outrageous. I'm unable to use my account, make payments and place orders. It's way past the time this was supposed to be done with! That only helps me to finally make my decision to leave and find a better bank. #tsb #tsbdown pic.twitter.com/daE03Hc4SH
— Barbara Adamiec (@barbara_adamiec) April 23, 2018
@TSB right now ;) #tsbdown pic.twitter.com/hI8Nhy57rr
— Barbara Adamiec (@barbara_adamiec) April 23, 2018
Despite the IT disruption, TSB’s online complaint form is still up and running. I’m sure they’d like to hear from anyone affected by today’s problems....
The frustration of being locked out of one’s own bank account is evident among TSB’s customer base:
Not impressed @TSB still cannot check online banking and make transfers today, moving accounts now for definite
— Niki Mellish (@MellishNiki) April 23, 2018
@TSB I’ve been ‘trying again later’ for several hours now. What’s going on? I need to access my account I have life to deal with. This is getting a bit of a joke!
— Olivia Harris (@MrsLivHarris) April 23, 2018
Here’s my colleague Patrick Collingson on the TSB problems:
The internet and mobile banking services of TSB, which has five million customers, intermittently failed on Monday morning after a system upgrade went wrong, prompting widespread concern among users.
The bank, carved out of Lloyds but now part of the Spanish Sabadell group, said it was working urgently to repair what it described as “intermittent” failures in its services.
The crash came hours after the bank warned account holders that some services, including online banking, making payments or transferring money, would not be possible from 4pm on Friday to 6pm on Sunday because of a system upgrade.
Some customers alleged over Twitter that transactions they have not made are being logged to their accounts, with some being credited sums of money, which are later deleted.
More here:
TSB online banking failure prompts complaints https://t.co/jSDY3pWKX4
— The Guardian (@guardian) April 23, 2018
TSB: We're working as fast as we can
TSB has just issued a statement - blaming the ‘large volumes’ of customers trying to access its services for today’s disruption.
A spokesperson says:
“We are currently experiencing large volumes of customers accessing our mobile app and internet banking which is leading to some intermittent issues with people accessing our services.
We are really sorry for the inconvenience this is causing our customers and want them to know we are working as hard and as fast as we can to resolve this problem.”
TSB has around five million UK customers. And surely it expected a surge of activity this morning, after restricting services over the weekend?!
Why TSB was changing its IT systems
Last weekend’s (botched) IT work should have been a symbolic moment for TSB -- as it finally moved the bank away from its former owner, Lloyds Banking Group.
TSB was spun out of Lloyds in 2013, but it has been using its former parent’s backend technology systems ever since - even after being taken over by Spain’s Sabadell in 2015.
TSB had hoped to move onto a new IT system last November, but was forced to delay it. That proved costly, as it pays Lloyds a fee for using its systems - in February, TSB warned that profits would be hit by the delay.
Under these circumstances, TSB will have been keen to take the plunge and move to its new IT systems. But were they completely ready? Today’s problems suggest perhaps not....
Christopher Pavett, pastor of Calvary Church in Clydach, Wales, spoke for many customers caught up in the disruption last night:
Ok, so unavailable since Friday, Fine, but you said 6:00 pm on Sunday to be back up and running, and it is now 11:13. I am urgently trying to get a payment done and whilst scheduled outages are inconvenient, a delay of over 5 hours for normal service resuming is disappointing.
— Christopher Pavett (@ChrisPavett) April 22, 2018
Updated
The Sun is also reporting that TSB customers have been left in limbo by its technology problems:
Mark Ezeabasili, 24 a student from London studying sport science at Bedfordshire University told The Sun he hasn’t had access to his account since 6pm yesterday.
He said: “I am a student and I tried to move some money from my TSB ISA to my current account so I would have money for the week.”
“I don’t what I am going to do for money for the week now.”
“I now have to all the way to town to get my money which really disrupts my life as I have exams and assignments and I don’t really have time to go all the way to the bank.”
Mum-of-one no access to cash due to TSB problems - https://t.co/ldV9BCsKkg
— Tara Evans ✏️🔍📖 (@taraevans) April 23, 2018
Some TSB customers report that today’s IT problems are causing serious inconvenience, and even costing them money:
Trying to transfer money into my account so I can get lunch since my tsb card is the only card I left the house with and not able to put any money into it !
— Stuart McAusland (@stuartewing) April 23, 2018
@easyGym So I tried cancelling my membership due to money problems but my bank TSB is having severe difficulties and it's impossible to cancel and I explained this to costumer service but basically they said I would have to pay again anyway. I'm extremely upset about this!
— Jo Palmer (@JonSeversher) April 23, 2018
Not an important banking day for me today - only buying a new car and can’t look at my balance or move ££’s. totally unacceptable #tsb #leaving tsb
— Matt Piper (@PiperMattp91) April 23, 2018
@TSB shocking. Now midday on Monday and cannot access money. Can’t shop, get cash or repay those who helped out over the weekend.
— Gillian Rowan (@Gillmeg) April 23, 2018
Small businesses who use TSB’s banking service are also worried....
Still no online access to my accounts. Wage run due end of this week. Assuming this will be fixed by end of today? Not quite sure how this could possibly have occurred. Left feeling very vulnerable and most likely will be switching to another bank.
— Carole @ Lazy Sunday (@a_lazy_sunday) April 23, 2018
I suspect TSB will be facing some claims for compensation, once this mess is sorted out....
TSB had warned customers that there might be disruption over the weekend, as it carried out its IT upgrade.
However, that work was meant to be finished last night - before many customers headed back to work today.
But as Sky News points out, something has clearly gone wrong:
One customer said he could see other people’s accounts totalling more than £20,000, while another reportedly discovered he had been wrongly credited with £13,000 after logging back in.
It came several hours after the bank had warned its account holders that some of its services, including online banking, making payments or transferring money, would not be possible over the weekend because of a system upgrade.
The upgrade window was scheduled between Friday at 4pm and Sunday at 6pm.
However, a message on the TSB website on Monday morning said there were still “intermittent issues” with its services, while a number of customers reported they were still unable to access their money.
TSB 'data breach' sees customer credited with £13k https://t.co/kyQX7SqnAz
— Sky News (@SkyNews) April 23, 2018
TSB customers hit by online banking problems
UK ‘challenger bank’ TSB is suffering some challenging - and alarming - technical problems this morning, following IT changes over the weekend.
Customers are taking to social media to complain that they can’t access their accounts, or even see how much money is available to them.
The problems have arisen following weekend IT work. There are even reports that some customers are seeing other customers’ balances when they log in....
Here’s some examples of the problems being reported:
Wtf tsb!!! How can u expect people to manage with no access to their funds from Fri and still ongoing!!!! Can't even find out how much money is in my own account as won't allow me to access and a mini statement isnt even upto date 😤 no idea on bank balance since Fri!! #TSB
— amy jayne thompson (@fragglebird81) April 23, 2018
It's now nearly 11am on Monday 23rd of April (almost 17 hours after the given end date), and I'm still unable to use online banking.
— Will Cantrell (@willcantrell123) April 23, 2018
When do you anticipate it being available?
I like how TSB haven’t even acknowledged that they’ve fucked their online banking update. Update was supposed to be finished yesterday, still can’t even access online, people logginging to find other peoples accounts or their balances at £0. Well done👏🏻
— Laura🐱🔻 (@lozzasan_) April 23, 2018
@TSB your slogan “We’re Not Like Other Banks” is totally correct can’t log into either of my accounts, tsb status website says everything is fine. I think the fat cat might be full. PS I would go to my local branch but you closed and moved it #tsb #joke pic.twitter.com/0XdHg9l2M0
— Ian Robinson (@SnapperIan) April 23, 2018
TSB have apologised, and say they’re working hard to fix the problems....
Hi Amy. We are really sorry to hear that you’re experiencing problems accessing your accounts. Unfortunately, there are some intermittent problems affecting some of our services so please bear with us. We’re working as hard as we can to resolve this. I... https://t.co/AVPJ6kjamV
— TSB (@TSB) April 23, 2018
Updated
Shares in outsourcing giant Capita have surged by 13% this morning, after it announced plans to raise £700m in fresh capital.
This cash injection should help the company overhaul its operations, and avoid the same fate as Carillion - which slumped into liquidation three months ago.
More here:
Europe’s stock markets are soporifically quiet this morning - perhaps traders have been lulled to sleep by the sunny weather.
Most European indices have dipped into the red, following this morning’s news that exports are being hit by the stronger euro.
In the City, the FTSE 100 is basically flat. Wall Street is expected to dip when trading begins at 2.30pm BST - as the rise in US bond yields keeps investors cautious.
I must confess that I’d expected shares to rise this morning, after North Korea announced on Saturday that it will end its tests of nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles
But there’s no sign of a relief rally, as Fiona Cincotta, Senior Market Analyst, at City Index, explains:
Despite Wall Street closing a solid 0.8% lower at the end of last week and mixed trading in Asia overnight, the FTSE stumbled out of the blocks on Monday in a subdued start to the week.
Some geopolitical developments over the weekend, including a further easing of fears of a US china trade war and North Korea agreeing to suspend missile testing and close a nuclear site failed to lift sentiment as much as might have been expected.
Dollar rallies as yields pick up
Eurozone exporters will be pleased to hear that the euro has fallen against the US dollar this morning.
The single currency has shed almost half a percent to $1.2235, as the dollar enjoys a strong morning - tracking the rise in US bond yields.
The pound has also dropped against the dollar, to a two-week low of $1.3976.
Watch those US 10-years, higher yield - higher currency pic.twitter.com/RnwIShCjmS
— Miles Eakers (@mileseakers) April 23, 2018
Updated
Back in the City, excitement is building as the interest rate (yield) on American 10-year government debt threatens to hit 3% for the first time since January 2014.
It’s really quite close now....
2.996 on the bid
— Mike Bird (@Birdyword) April 23, 2018
The 3% mark is turning into a psychologically important barrier, as it will highlight how US bond prices have dropped from recent record highs (yields rise as prices fall).
Falling bond yields suggest that traders are expecting US inflation to pick up, forcing America’s central bank - the Federal Reserve - to keep raising interest rates.
Eurozone PMI report: What the experts say
Fred Ducrozet of Swiss bank Pictet is concerned by the slowdown among companies in smaller eurozone nations - and the impact of the stronger euro:
A couple of more worrying signs to be monitored in PMIs though:
— Frederik Ducrozet (@fwred) April 23, 2018
1) outside Germany & France, growth slowed to an 18-month low
2) the recent strength of the euro was mentioned as a drag on orders
Here's the most worrying PMI chart, with Markit mentioning the strength of the euro as a drag, for the first time in months. Still too early for the ECB to be sure, so they're likely to keep their most dovish options open if things were to get worse. pic.twitter.com/WhwYNxGdBP
— Frederik Ducrozet (@fwred) April 23, 2018
Economist Nadia Gharbi says the eurozone is struggling to keep up with its recent expansion, as supply chains are being stretched hard:
Euro area composite PMI remained stable at 55.2 in April, above consensus expectations (54.8). Services index (+0.1 point to 55.0) rose marginally, while manufacturing index fell (-0.6 point to 56.0). Supply constraints contributed again to the slowdown in output and orders. pic.twitter.com/39U3WfBJgD
— Nadia Gharbi (@nghrbi) April 23, 2018
We don’t get separate data from Italy and Spain until early next month; economist Ulrik Bie suspects they won’t be great
EUR-wide manufacturing PMI declined more than in DE and FR, indicating declines in ES and IT. Still points to strong economic growth. pic.twitter.com/kTjuqOg1Ct
— Ulrik Bie (@UlrikBie) April 23, 2018
Danske Bank’s Aila Mihr predicts that the eurozone PMIs will remain at their current levels for some time:
🇪🇺#PMIs stabilising in April, but decline in new orders and weaker optimism leave potential for further decreases ahead. We expect mfg #PMI to stabilize around 55.0 level over 3-6M horizon. That means #growth should stay robust in the #eurozone. https://t.co/nTmUl1cTja pic.twitter.com/Bvriocb2ly
— Aila Mihr (@aila_mihr) April 23, 2018
Although France and Germany are holding up well, the eurozone’s periphery is suffering a sharper slowdown -- to a 18-month low.
This chart from Markit shows the details:
Updated
Eurozone growth steady as strong euro bites
Newsflash: growth among eurozone companies remained steady this month, as the strength of the euro hits export growth.
Markit’s Eurozone PMI was unchanged this month at 55.2, comfortably over the 50-point mark separating expansion from contraction. This leaves the eurozone economy in a “lower gear”, Markit says, after the strong growth in 2017.
The service sector picked up, with activity rising to two-month high of 55.0 (from 54.9 in March).
But...manufacturing growth slowed to a 14-month low of 56.0 ( from 56.6 in March).
Factories reported the smallest gains in both total goods orders and export orders for 18 months, partly due the recent strength of the euro against the US dollar.
Looks as if the collapse in #Eurozone survey data over, at least for now. Eurozone Composite PMI for April came out unchanged at 55.2 vs an expected decline to 54.8. BUT Manufacturing PMI less encouraging. Fell to a 14mth low at 56.0 which was basically in line w/ consensus. pic.twitter.com/i4SkotBlN0
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) April 23, 2018
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, says growth has “downshifted markedly” in recent months:
The Eurozone economy remained stuck in a lower gear in April, with business activity expanding at a rate unchanged on March, which had in turn been the slowest since the start of 2017.
However, he doesn’t see any signs that Europe is flirting with recession:
“The April data are running at a level broadly consistent with Eurozone GDP growth of approximately 0.6% at the start of the second quarter.
“The decline in the PMI from January’s high is neither surprising nor alarming: such strong growth as that seen at the start of the year rarely persists for long, not least because supply fails to keep up with demand. With recent months seeing record delivery delays for inputs to factories and growing skill shortages, output is clearly being constrained. In France, strikes were also reported to have disrupted growth, and may continue to do so in coming months.
But, the strength of the euro may hold growth back in the months ahead, Williamson adds:
It’s also clear that underlying demand has weakened, in part due to exports being hit by the stronger euro. With companies’ future optimism having slipped to the lowest since last year, it looks likely that growth may well slow further in coming months.”
Updated
Financial blogger Jeroen Blokland is also encouraged by today’s data:
The #EUROBOOM is alive and well! #Germany's manufacturing #PMI fell less than expected and remains at a very healthy and elevated level of 58.1. pic.twitter.com/VbqFLdgIff
— jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) April 23, 2018
Updated
Financial portfolio manager Mario Cavaggioni is also encouraged by today’s output data from the eurozone’s two biggest members:
April PMIs for both Germany and France came out stronger than expected, meaning Q1 18 weakness was in large part a correction from really too strong Q4 17. Eurozone GDP is running still around 2.5% y/y.
— Mario Cavaggioni (@CavaggioniMario) April 23, 2018
Germany’s economy is stabilising this month after suffering a slowdown earlier this year, according to today’s PMI report.
Phil Smith, Principal Economist at IHS Markit explains:
“Growth of Germany’s private sector steadied in April, to arrest the loss of momentum seen in February and March. With both manufacturing and services seeing slightly quicker increases in output, the data show the economy making a solid start to the second quarter.
“There was also a welcome pick-up in the rate of private sector job creation in April. Employment levels rose strongly on a broad-based basis by sector, albeit with the rate of hiring among manufacturers easing from the recent elevated levels.
“However, a further slowdown in new order growth to its weakest for over a year-and-a-half does raise some concerns. This seemed to be reflected in the survey’s measure of business confidence, which slipped further from the highs seen in 2017.”
Here’s more reaction:
Euro area PMIs stabilising. If this was the soft patch, we're going to be fine.
— Frederik Ducrozet (@fwred) April 23, 2018
Germany PMI stabilized in April, but new manufacturing export orders continue to weaken. Levels indicate solid growth across the economy pic.twitter.com/3oCoU4bXai
— Ulrik Bie (@UlrikBie) April 23, 2018
German PMI stronger than expected
Newsflash: German’s private sector is growing a little faster than expected, matching France’s performance.
Markit’s ‘flash’ Germany Composite Output Index has risen to 55.3 in April, up from March’s 55.1 - beating forecasts of a fall to 54.8.
German PMIs beat
— Mike van Dulken (@Accendo_Mike) April 23, 2018
However, Markit warns that German business leaders are less optimistic, with new orders rising at their weakest level in18 months.
They say:
The rate of job creation picked up to its highest for three months; however, there was less optimism among businesses towards the outlook for activity in the year ahead amid a further slowdown in new order growth.
After a stellar 2017, Germany’s private sector does seem to have eased back a little.
Reaction to follow....
French growth figures: What the experts say
The increase in the French PMI data this month should ease fears that the country’s economy is weakening.
Alex Gill, economist at IHS Markit, explains:
“The French private sector remained firmly in expansionary mode according to latest flash data. Indeed, at 56.9, the headline composite output figure signalled a sharper rate of growth than in March, and one that remained well above its long-run average (53.9).
“After having shown signs of slowing in recent months, the data will buoy hopes that the renaissance in the French economy has far from run its course. Further encouragement can be garnered from the broad-based nature of the acceleration, with sharper growth evident in both the manufacturing and services sectors, the former on the back of marked moderations in the prior two months.”
His colleague, Chris Williamson, says France seems to be growing at a solid rate:
Flash #PMI for #France rebounds in April (despite strikes). Growth is still weaker than earlier in the year but consistent with solid c.0.6% GDP growth. Job creation also encouragingly strong. More at https://t.co/pi9ayH5DaH pic.twitter.com/QLJz4rEsAI
— Chris Williamson (@WilliamsonChris) April 23, 2018
French growth has picked up this month
Newsflash: Growth across France’s private sector has picked up this month, defying worries that the euro area is slowing.
Data firm Markit has just reported that its ‘flash’ PMI survey on the French economy has risen to 56.9 in April, up from 56.3 in March.
That’s a stronger reading than expected - with many economists predicting that growth slowed this month. Any reading over 50 shows growth.
Markit reports that growth accelerated in the service sector, although manufacturing growth did slow a little.
Companies repotted that new orders have picked up this month, encouraging them to keep hiring staff.
Here’s the key findings:
-
Flash France Composite Output Index at 56.9 in April from 56.3 in March (2-month high)
-
Flash France Services Activity Index rises to 57.4 in April (56.9 in March), 2-month high
-
Flash France Manufacturing Output Index up to 54.7 (53.9 in March), 2-month high
-
Flash France Manufacturing PMI drops to 53.4 (53.7 in March) 13-month low
France manufacturing PMI declined further, but services - more aimed at domestic market - pulled up composite index. Still healthy levels pic.twitter.com/xhvomqX5np
— Ulrik Bie (@UlrikBie) April 23, 2018
More to follow...
Updated
The agenda: Euro PMI data in focus
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
Is the ‘euroboom’ alive and well? A new healthcheck on Europe’s businesses this morning will highlight whether growth has slowed in 2018, as geopolitical tensions and trade spats hit confidence.
The ‘flash’ eurozone PMI, calculated by data firm Markit, is expected to dip to 54.8 this month, down from March’s 55.2. That would still show an expansion, but at a slightly slower pace.
Investors would like to see a strong set of PMI data, to ease concerns that Europe might be entering a soggier patch.
Eurozone PMIs on deck. France up first. I am hoping for stabilisation, but anything can happen with these numbers to be honest.
— Claus Vistesen (@ClausVistesen) April 23, 2018
Michael Hewson of CMC Markets explains why City investors will be examining the data:
Over in Europe there has been some concern that economic activity has hit its high-water mark in recent months with the only debate over whether it is merely a pause for breath or an early indication of a more significant slowdown. Investors certainly appear concerned if last week’s April investor sentiment ZEW reading was any indication coming in at a 5 year low of -8.2.
Despite this scepticism markets in Europe are still sitting near a one month high, with the recent slide in the euro also helping a little.
Today’s publication of the latest German and French flash PMI data in manufacturing and services could well add further fuel to the debate about economic activity in Europe’s two largest economies.
These have shown signs of slowing in recent months and while it’s not been particularly alarming in terms of the overall headline readings the lack of inflation does speak to a lack of demand on a wider scale.
The data will be closely watched by the European Central Bank, which meets later this week to set monetary policy across the eurozone.
ECB policymakers are pondering whether to end their QE stimulus programme, so weakening growth would create a headache for them.
Also coming up today....
Investors are also looking edgily at the bond market this morning. US government debt has been selling off in recent days, pushing up the yield (or interest rate) on 10-year Treasury bills towards 3% - a crucial level for market confidence.
Hussein Sayed, Chief Market Strategist at FXTM, explains why it matters:
Higher interest rates mean higher borrowing cost for corporates, and another sharp spike would eat away a significant element of their profitability by increasing interest expense. Investors will also readjust their required cost of capital as risk-free rates rise, which could make equities less attractive.
Asia stocks dip in a soggy start to the week as investors keeping a wary eye on US bond yields which approaching new highs, while continuing to assess the outlook for trade discussions & geopol tensions. 10y US yields above 2.97%, underpin Dollar. Oil lift inflation expectations. pic.twitter.com/Tw19Q8v54x
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) April 23, 2018
The agenda:
- 8am BST: French ‘flash’ PMI for April
- 8.30am BST: German ‘flash’ PMI for April
- 9am BST: Eurozone ‘flash’ PMI for April
Updated