French politicians love opinion polls. Indeed, Nicolas Sarkozy liked them so much he once spent a whopping €3.3m (£2.7m) on them in one year. But what are they actually telling us about this presidential election?
A quick look at the 13 – yes, 13 – polls carried out recently reveals … not a lot for the first round, next month.
Four suggest Sarkozy is leading, seven have the socialist candidate, François Hollande, ahead, and two have them neck-and-neck. The leader of the far-right Front National (FN), Marine Le Pen, is given a first-round score ranging from 13.3% to 18%, in an election when even 1% is going to make a difference.
Six of the 13 polls give the former prime minister, and Sarkozy's sworn enemy, Dominique de Villepin between 1% and 1.5%. There is only one problem: he's not even standing.
French opinion polls have a dubious record. Since few people will openly admit to voting for, say, the extreme right, adjustments have to be made. Even so, the surveys notoriously failed to predict in 2002 that the then FN leader, Jean-Marie Le Pen, would cause a political earthquake by knocking out the socialist Lionel Jospin in the first round.
So are we any wiser about who will be the next president of France?
Flip to the predicted results for the second round in May, and it looks like 13 will be a lucky number for Hollande: every single poll suggests he will be collecting the keys to the Elysée Palace.
