Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic have much in common from adjacent birthdays to a spirit-sapping defensive game. The most important similarity between them right now, however, is the lack of a French Open title and, after four of seven matches, it is the world No1 who looks more likely to leave Paris smiling on Sunday.
Djokovic is approaching such a pitch of excellence that even those smiling supporters wearing “Vamos Rafa!” T-shirts around Roland Garros are looking apprehensive before his quarter-final against the Serb on Wednesday. The Spaniard, who dropped a set against the unseeded American Jack Sock on Monday, is struggling for friends at the tournament he has won nine times.
Nonetheless Murray, who will play the winner if he beats David Ferrer , thinks Djokovic will have to be at his best to beat Nadal. “It’s a huge match any time those guys play each other,” he said, “especially in the majors or finals of the events on the Tour. But Rafa seems to be playing very well. I think the conditions here suit him and he’s more comfortable than anywhere else on the Tour. It will be a lot closer than in the Monte Carlo semi-final [where the Serb beat him in two sets for the loss of six games in a little over an hour and a half].”
And who would be foolish enough to question the tennis judgment of Murray?
Nevertheless, doubts hang heavy over Nadal. Four defeats on European clay in one summer may not be disastrous for some players but they plainly hit Nadal’s self-belief in the midriff. He claimed in Rome, where he went out in the quarter-finals to Stan Wawrinka, that he had recovered from his defeat by Murray in the Madrid final the week before but it did not sound convincing.
And Djokovic’s easy win over Roger Federer in that final only underlined the gulf between him and the rest of the field. When Nadal arrived in Paris, though, his spirits lifted and so did his level. He swatted aside the French teenager Quentin Halys, his compatriot Nicolás Almagro, the unseeded Russian Andrey Kuznetsov and then Sock, who had looked inspired putting out Grigor Dimitrov and the rising Croatian Borna Coric.
Djokovic has looked better, while only rarely having to find an extra gear to beat the Tour-weary Jarkko Nieminen and Gilles Müller, the excellent young Australian Thanasi Kokkinakis and a spent Richard Gasquet without dropping a set.
In the most intense rivalry of modern times, Nadal leads Djokovic 23-20 on all surfaces since 2006. On clay it is 13-5 Nadal. In finals on clay it is 7-4 Nadal. And the single statistic that matters to Nadal supporters is Djokovic has not beaten their hero at Roland Garros in six attempts, most recently in last year’s final, when the champion saved six of 10 break points and survived 11 aces over three and a half hours of quality suffering. Can he do it again after an appendectomy last year and an indifferent return in 2015?
Look a little closer at the numbers, though: while Nadal won their first eight matches on the dirt, three of them in finals, they are five-all since Djokovic broke through in Madrid in 2011, his year of years. The general impression is the world No1, fuelled by 26 wins on the spin, will be too tough to stop.
Murray has quietly worked his way through the draw; he is happy with his tennis, even if not many rate his chances of getting past either Nadal or Djokovic in the semi-finals.
First Murray must deal with Ferrer, who has won all their four clay matches. He is hoping the predicted warmer weather arrives, to harden the court a little and take the drag off the heavy balls they use here. He knows one thing: there will be a lot of running to do unless he plays aggressively.
“It is [like that] if you allow him to dictate the points,” he said. “But I feel I’ve done a better job of not playing so defensively on clay this year. And when I have had to defend, I’ve moved a lot better so, when I’ve had the chance, I have stepped into the court and dictated the points. In [cold, damp] conditions, David can make you run a lot if you allow him to.
“But, because he’s not as hard a hitter as somebody like [Jérémy] Chardy, you have the opportunity to dictate the points as well. I will need to do that for sure.”
