The expansion of free school meals will initially benefit far fewer children in England than claimed, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, as data shows more than one in four at state schools already receive free lunches.
The figures from the Department for Education’s annual school census show that 25.7% of all pupils now receive free school meals (FSM), up by more than a percentage point compared with last year and nearly double the 13.6% in 2017.
The record of nearly 2.2 million children is an increase of 77,700 since January 2024.
Bridget Phillipson, the education secretary, has announced expanded FSM eligibility from September 2026, allowing all children from households receiving universal credit benefits to receive free lunches. Currently those with a net earned household income of below £7,400 a year are eligible.
While poverty campaigners and teaching unions welcomed Phillipson’s announcement, the IFS said the expansion would take several years to affect levels of child poverty.
The IFS said in the long run it would lift 100,000 children out of poverty but “in the short run, both the costs and the benefits of this policy are likely to be much smaller”, because of the high proportion who already receive FSM.
Christine Farquharson, an associate director at IFS, said: “Transitional protections introduced in 2018 have substantially increased the number of children receiving free school meals today. So in the short run, today’s announcement will both cost considerably less, around £250m a year, and benefit considerably fewer pupils [than the government’s estimate of 500,000]. This also means that today’s announcement will not see anything like 100,000 children lifted out of poverty next year.”
The previous government allowed transition arrangements in 2018, during the introduction of universal credit, to protect children receiving FSM and extend their eligibility. The government has now extended the transition until September 2026, with eligibility for all pupils reverting to the new criteria, regardless of whether they were previously protected, according to the DfE.
The IFS said: “The ultimate impact of these transitional protections is that many more children are currently receiving free school meals than would otherwise be the case. This makes the short-run costs of expanding eligibility lower, but also means that fewer families will benefit on day one.”
Tammy Campbell, the director for early years at the Education Policy Institute, said schools would not receive additional pupil premium funding for each child on FSM under the new extension. The funding, which ranges from £1,000 to £2,600 per pupil, will still be paid under the existing criteria including the £7,400 household income cap.
The DfE said it is reviewing how it allocates pupil premium and related funding, “to ensure it is targeted to those who need it most”.
“There does not appear to be a clear rationale from government as to why the new free school meal eligibility criteria will not be reflected in pupil premium eligibility. The government is clear that these children are growing up in difficult circumstances. As such, they are more likely to have lower attainment and benefit from additional support in school,” Campbell said.
Phillipson also said the government would review school food standards. Speaking to the BBC Radio 4 Today programme, she said school food had not been looked at “for a very long time” and that the government wanted to “make sure that the food that’s being served is healthy and nutritious”.
Henry Dimbleby, the restaurateur who chaired the last school food review in 2013, said a fresh review was overdue as some schools were not following existing standards. Campaigners have called for government guidance to encourage consumption of fruit, vegetables and legumes, and less use of processed meats.
