Angst has again been heightened among Everton fans following Saturday’s 2-0 defeat at Southampton.
The mood in the camp was high going into the clash after Everton secured an impressive 3-0 victory at Goodison Park over Leeds United seven days earlier.
However, the Blues were well-beaten by their south-coast counterparts, and the manner of that defeat has really reignited relegation concerns.
The defeat means the Toffees are now without a win on the road since August, and their combined total of just six away points now represents the worst return for any side in the division.
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New boss Frank Lampard pulled no punches when asked if he thought Everton were now firmly in a relegation battle: “I think it’s really clear isn’t it? The position we’re in in the table is clear, it’s not something we have to debate.
“As a team and staff we just have to work on getting results to improve our position. When we won last week things looked a lot better and we’ve lost today and it looks worse.”
As things stand, the Toffees are just four points clear of the relegation zone, with league leaders Manchester City up next this weekend.
“When we have been great we have backed ourselves, but the minute games turn against us there can be a mentality issue for the players. And I can totally understand confidence issues, but the only way to come out of that is through work and application.
“We are focused on the job in hand. We have to have a belief in what we’re doing, the home games have shown that.”
Across Lampard’s four games in charge, Everton have been very Jekyll and Hyde in their displays. At home, they put in two standout displays against Brentford and Leeds, while on the road they have struggled.
Everton’s struggles on the road this season, even since the arrival of Lampard, suggest that it’ll be their form at Goodison Park this season that will be key to survival.
Home form is most likely going to be decisive for all teams situated near the foot of the table, therefore we’ve analysed the reaming home fixtures for each side in the relegation battle to determine who has the easiest and hardest run-ins.
Of the teams currently inside the bottom seven, Everton have the best points per home game average (1.45) so far. Additionally, only Burnley have more home games remaining than the Toffees, handing them more crucial opportunities to secure vital points.
Despite this, based on FiveThirtyEight’s forecasted league table - this being the predicted position in which each side will finish - Everton do have one of the tougher run-ins.
However, it is worth noting that after this week’s clash with City, the average forecasted position of Everton’s remaining opponents averages out at a better 10.14.
Lampard should then be confident that his side should have enough winnable games at home to steer away from trouble, although the margin for error is now extremely small and a failure to pick points up in these more favourable Goodison fixtures could prove catastrophic come to the end of the season.
