The heatwave that has engulfed France is underscoring the country’s lack of preparedness for climate change. Researcher and climate scientist François Gemenne laments that this is only considered a crisis during heatwaves, saying that France urgently needs to renovate its buildings – and reconsider its aversion to air conditioning.
The heatwave that has swept France since June 17 has caused record-breaking temperatures, more than 800 school closures and the cancellation of 10 percent of the trains serving the Paris region. The heat is of “exceptional” intensity, similar to the August 2003 heatwave that caused 15,000 deaths, according to the Metéo France national weather service.
Metéo France placed 54 of its 96 mainland departments on red alert on Tuesday, meaning 90 percent of the population was facing extreme, exceptional heat – an unprecedented event. The day before, temperatures oscillated between 36°C and 43°C (97°F and 109°F) across the country.
For François Gemmene, researcher and co-author of the UN's sixth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, none of this comes as a surprise.
Gemmene notes that scientists have been warning about the effects of climate change for years and predicts that the temperatures seen this week "are gradually going to become the norm”.
Adapting to these changes, beginning with the renovation of buildings and reopening the debate on the mass installation of air conditioning (AC), will be essential to combating extreme conditions in the future, Gemmene says. Moreover, the social consequences of these changes must be considered.
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FRANCE 24: This new heatwave will be comparable to the deadly one in 2003, both in intensity and length. This year's May heatwave was also exceptional because of how early in the year it arrived. Climate scientists' predictions appear to be coming true.
François Gemenne: Absolutely, this conforms to various predictions and scenarios. We have known this for at least 40 years: one of the main effects of climate change in Europe is the growing intensity and frequency of extreme phenomena. This means more frequent heatwaves, which also last longer. This is exactly what was foreseen.
Furthermore, like public debt, this is a compounding phenomenon. If we run a deficit, the debt grows. And even if we reduce our deficit, the debt continues to rise, becoming higher today than it was yesterday. It’s the same for climate warming. If carbon emissions accumulate in the atmosphere, temperatures continue to rise. Temperature records will continue to be broken – even though I don’t like the word “records”, because it gives you the impression that this is an exceptional event that won’t repeat itself, like an Olympic record. Unfortunately, none of this is extraordinary. The temperatures reached this week will eventually become normal and they will even be considered relatively cool compared to what lies ahead in 2028, 2030, 2040, 2050. This is a certainty.
Political leaders have expressed regret at not having moved faster with measures to reduce or adapt to climate change. Which measures should have been taken and ought be implemented now?
The priority of priorities is the renovation of public buildings and schools. The catastrophic condition of buildings is clear today. The government launched a plan for energy renovations in 2019, but it was abandoned. It’s a shame, because the renovation of buildings has an impact on people’s health and on the ability of students to concentrate and work well.
There is also a major social issue at stake here. We know those who suffer the most are the people living in small apartments on the top floors of buildings. Mortality rates are higher in such settings. Opening cooling centres for these individuals – in gymnasiums, for example – should be considered.
The debate on AC was recently relaunched by far-right leader Marine Le Pen, who advocates introducing a “grand plan clim” (a widespread AC plan). Far-left politician Jean-Luc Mélenchon insists that widespread AC would exacerbate the problem. What is your position?
The debate should evolve, because regulations have evolved. In the past, air conditioning systems used refrigerant gases that were very harmful for the climate. These gases have been banned in the European Union since 2024. Given that electricity in France is mostly carbon neutral, the impact of air conditioners on the climate is now extremely limited. The only concern is the local release of heat in cities, particularly in densely populated areas. But since we spend more time indoors than in the street, it seems like the benefits in terms of public health outweigh the local inconvenience.
Public buildings are the priority. That said, AC can save lives in certain apartments. This is also an economic issue: AC is expensive, and access to it is highly unequal. Hence the need to work on collective solutions such as adapting cities, increasing urban green spaces and so on. The question of adaptation is not merely an individual one.
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Is there a risk of reducing the sense of urgency to mitigate climate change once we no longer suffer from extreme heat indoors?
Opposition to AC sometimes stems from the idea that if we were less affected by the impacts of climate change, it would weaken decarbonisation efforts. Yet people are smarter than that. We need to understand that decarbonisation is in our best interest – not just for the climate, but also for sovereignty, competitiveness, purchasing power and the modernisation of our economy. Research consistently shows that the level of exposure to climate change does not correlate with a willingness to act. In other words, suffering from the impact of climate change does not necessarily make you more inclined to make changes.
You have evoked the importance of finding collective solutions. Yet the 2027 presidential campaign is approaching, and most candidates seem not to be addressing these issues head-on.
Many voters still seem convinced that action on a national level doesn’t make sense if other nations don’t act – if China doesn’t do anything, or if the United States doesn’t do anything. This is simply not true, especially when it comes to adapting, which is necessary and useful even if the others don’t budge. It’s important that the presidential candidates come up with proposals on these issues because adaptation doesn’t depend on others. Unfortunately, it’s very likely that immigration will overshadow everything else in the run-up to the election.
We may also have made the mistake of counting on governments too much to lead the transition. I think those who will lead it are companies, civil society and local governments.
It seems like the same scenario repeats itself with every heatwave: the media talk non-stop about climate change, people suffer and then we forget.
Exactly. We are going to talk about the climate constantly this week. Then temperatures will drop next week, and we won’t talk about it anymore. When the next heatwave comes, again we will say, “we aren’t ready.”
This article has been translated from the original in French.
