Paris has been complaining over a lack of “clear” American strategy over Syria. Washington is currently preoccupied with North Korea and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has not set Syria as a priority in his foreign policy.
French senior sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that Washington has only set a few number of priorities in Syria. It will forge through with the file once the Defense and State Departments reach a “united vision” over the political solution in Syria should look like.
“We are still waiting to see what the US decides on. It has yet to reveal to us President Donald Trump’s strategy,” they said. The greatest question will be whether American forces will remain in Syria or not. It appears that Trump has so far postponed his decision to withdraw his troops after he came under internal and foreign pressure.
The most that can be derived of Washington’s position on Syria is its commitment to United Nations Security Council resolution 2254.
According to Paris, Washington seeks to achieve four goals in Syria. It first wants to completely eliminate the ISIS terrorist group. It then wants to prevent a war from erupting between Turkey and the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) so that the Kurds could keep their eyes set on combating the terror organization.
The US also wants to safeguard Israeli interests. This would explain to its commitment to preserving the de-escalation zone in southwestern Syria and the current discussions with Russia to return the area under the control of the Syrian regime. This will consequently keep Iranian and Shiite militias away from the Israeli border.
Washington also wants to preserve Jordan’s security and prevent the Golan Heights-Daraa zone from transforming into a battleground that would threaten neighboring Jordan.
So far, it appears that Paris does not have any reservations over these goals. It too is committed to defeating ISIS and the ongoing deployment of French commandos alongside the YPG in northeastern Syria is evidence of this pledge.
France is also committed to resolution 2254, but it is seeking a way to restore efforts to return to the political course. This explains attempts by President Emmanuel Macron and French diplomacy to “find a coordination mechanism” between the Astana group, of Russia, Turkey and Iran, and the pro-Syrian opposition group, of the US, Britain, France, Germany, Saudi Arabia and Jordan. Paris is seeking to expand this group to include Turkey and Egypt.
Should Paris find a common agenda between these two camps, then it will be able to restore political negotiations over a number of files, such as the Syrian constitution, elections and prisoner and humanitarian affairs.
These efforts will ultimately culminate in roundtable talks between the two camps that will exert pressure on the Syrian opposition and especially the regime to accept dialogue over the exercise of power in the country and the political situation as a whole.
Paris believes that the return to discussions over the constitutional committee, in line with Sochi recommendations, has bolstered the position of UN special envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura. He had recently held talks with members of the Astana camp and will soon meet with members of the pro-opposition group.
Key to the political solution in Syria, however, remains in just how willing Moscow and Tehran are to pressuring the regime to go ahead with the solution, believes Paris. The difficulty remains in just how “interwoven” the Syria war is with other contentious regional issues, starting with the Iran nuclear file.
Paris believes that Israel has become a main player in the course of the war due to its staunch opposition to Iranian presence in Syria. It has managed to preserve its interests by reaching agreements with the US and Russia.
Russia, meanwhile, is caught between its commitment to the alliance with Iran in defending the regime and dividing the spoils in Syria and between its strong commitment to Israel’s security and refusal for Iran to pose a threat to it from Syria. These two commitments justify Moscow’s current behavior. It will continue to turn a blind eye to Israeli air strikes against Iranian and pro-Iran militias in Syria as long as they do not harm Russian interests. In return, Israel will seek to avoid harming Russian personnel in Syria and “Hezbollah” members there.
Another file that has garnered Paris’ attention is the Kurds in Syria. It fears that they may fall prey to Turkey or the regime should the US pull out its troops from the country. It believes that recent Turkish actions in Kurdish zones, through Russia’s blessing, demonstrate an agreement between Ankara and Moscow. Its best advice for the Kurds at this point is to seek dialogue with Turkey, because it has become a “firm fixture” in the Syrian equation.
As for the regime, Paris is discouraging the Kurds against reaching an agreement with it according to Damascus’ terms that have never aligned with their interests. The regime is ultimately seeking to return Syria to the way it was before 2011 when the uprising began. Regime leader Bashar Assad had declared recently that he wants to recapture every inch of Syrian territory, whether peacefully or by force.
