Chances of a left-wing single candidacy in the French presidential election faded over the weekend as the main contenders seem unable to bridge their differences, while independent Emmanuel Macron got entangled in controversies over France's colonial past, leaving the race wide open nine weeks ahead of the vote.
Socialist Benoit Hamon and far-left campaigner Jean-Luc Melenchon, who signaled in the past week they would try to discuss a possible joint candidacy, seemed to drop any plan to join forces after they traded barbs through the media.
"I won't run after Melenchon, I don't run after anyone," Hamon said Saturday in Portugal after the far-left candidate said he didn't intend "to hang on to a (Socialist) hearse." Hamon said that he is planning to meet and campaign with Yves Jadot, the Green contender, who represents around 2 percent of votes. Hamon and Melenchon are still expected to meet during the week.
While the possible scenario of a left-wing candidate eliminating centrist Emmanuel Macron and Republican Francois Fillon from the second and final round is less likely after the weekend, the uncertainty over who will confront far-right anti-euro Marine Le Pen is keeping observers and campaign teams under tension. The risk of an allied left in a presidential runoff roiled markets on Friday, with France 10-year yields rising as much as 5 basis points before paring losses and bond investors seeking to move toward the safest assets.
'MARKET UNFRIENDLY'
"If a tie up between Hamon and Melenchon were to materialize, then this would be negative for OATs," said Peter Chatwell, London-based head of interest-rates strategy at Mizuho International. "As a combined force, they could eclipse both Fillon and Macron in the first round, leaving the second round to be a choice of two market-unfriendly candidates."
The last Ifop polls shows Macron and Fillon neck-and-neck at 18.5 percent while support for Le Pen remains at 26 percent. Hamon would get 14 percent of the votes and Melenchon 11.5 percent. Yet Ifop has consistently showed Le Pen would be defeated by either Macron or Fillon in the second round. The Paris-based pollster didn't measure a possible second round between Le Pen and a left-wing rival.
Beyond the left's internal feuds, the weekend has deepened uncertainty over the outcome with opponents to Le Pen marred in scandals: Fillon is facing allegations of public funds' embezzlement over the employment of his wife and children as parliamentary aides while Macron's candidacy has suffered from his divisive political messages on the country's colonial era.
Add to the mix that Le Pen herself is facing her own woes as the EU anti-fraud agency OLAF transmitted a report to France's prosecutors about her alleged misuse of European funds.
FAKE WORK
Le Pen denied an allegation by the European Union's fraud office that she gave her aides fake parliamentary jobs, after OLAF said that two of the National Front leader's employees received salaries as European Parliament assistants. It said its probe found "serious irregularities" and a fake work contract.
Fillon, who had promised he would quit the race if he was put under formal investigation on possible misuse of public funds to employ his family, on told Le Figaro on Friday he would no longer drop out, regardless of what the national financial investigators decide to do in their probe.
VIDEO MESSAGE
An Ifop poll released Sunday by Journal du Dimanche shows that 65 percent of the French want him to quit the race and the candidate is facing small groups of protesters in most places where he campaigns in France. In a recorded 2-minute video message on his Facebook account released Sunday, the right-wing candidate told his voters "not to let themselves be intimidated by attacks or by the few protesters."
Meanwhile Macron's comments on France's colonial era have caused havoc for several days. During a Feb. 13 and 14 visit in Algeria, a former colony of France in North Africa, Macron told a local television that some aspects of colonialism could be considered as a crime against humanity. His comments where immediately criticized by Fillon and Le Pen, who called it a political mistake. Le Pen's National Front party supporters have since been demonstrating in front of all of Macron's political meetings. The candidate has apologized for having shocked some people in France, while not retracting fully his comments.
Macron, who was the favorite candidate to face Le Pen in the second round before Friday's Ifop survey, is planning a visit and a political rally in London on Tuesday, home to a large French community. The former economy minister of Socialist President Francois Hollande has called for tough negotiation with the U.K. on Brexit.
The independent candidate has sought to campaign outside of political parties groups and refuses to be associated with Socialists. His voting base spans from conservative voters who seek a more moderate president than Fillon and voters who refuse to endorse again a Socialist nominee. Yet polls have shown his voters are less certain about their final vote for him that those who plan to go for Le Pen or even Fillon.
