The far right Front National have made unprecedented gains in the first round of regional French elections and seemed certain to take control of at least two regions for the first time in the New Year.
Surfing on the anger and anxiety following the Jihadi attacks in Paris, the allegedly “cleaned up” far right party are leading the polls in six out of 12 new super-regions created in mainland France last year.
The party’s leader, Marine Le Pen, polled around 42 per cent in the Lille-Calais-Amiens region of northern France – reducing the ruling Socialist part to a miserable 19 per cent in one of its historic bastions
Her harder-line niece, Marion Maréchal Le Pen, 25, also scored over 40 per cent in the Provence-Côte d’Azur region in the south. Both Le Pens appear to be in an unassailable position before the second round next Sunday and could, from January, govern two of the most important French regions with a combined population of 11 million people.
The FN has never governed any French region before.
Across the rest of the nation, the FN did marginally less well than the opinion polls had predicted – running neck and neck with former President Nicolas Sarkozy’s Les Républicains with around 27 per cent of the vote. The ruling centre-left looked likely to have a miserable night with 23.6 per cent of the national vote – but seemed likely to hold onto at least four regions.
The turn-out was just under 50 per cent – slightly up on the last regional elections in 2010.
Marine Le Pen could not have wished for a darkly fearful political mood or a cascade of events better suited to her populist, anti-establishment, anti-European and anti-immigrant themes. Even before the Syrian immigrant crisis and the jihadist massacres in Paris, the far right was heading for sweeping gains in this month’s regional elections.
The centre-left government is deeply unpopular; unemployment is at record levels; President François Hollande’s market-opening economic reforms are resented by many traditional left wing voters; the main opposition party, the centre-right Républicains are divided; and their leader, former President Nicolas Sarkozy, remains widely disliked.
In the three weeks since the Friday 13th attacks, opinon polls had picked up a sharp, further swing to the Front National – although not in Paris or other cities potentially threatened by urban terrorism.
Jérôme Fourquet, head of the IFOP polling organisation, pointed out that the far right had scarcely needed to campaign. “All the FN’s traditional themes have been at the centre of an incandescent news agenda,” he said.
The mainstream political classes, the metropolitan elite and most of the media have insisted that France will not allow Islamic State to “divide” the majority population from the five million French citizens with origins in Muslim countries.
Not so, the Front National – and especially Marion Maréchal Le Pen, despite claims that the party has been “de-demonised”. In a speech last week, Ms Maréchal Le Pen said Muslims could not be French because they rejected French “customs and morals” rooted in Christianity.
The FN is now clearly established – favourable circumstance or not; low turnout or not – as a permanent third force in French politics. With 27 per cent of the nationwide vote, Ms Le Pen has a powerful springboard to run for the Elysée Palace in 18 months time.
Her chances of becoming France’s first woman leader since Joan of Arc remain slight, however. All polls suggest that she will reach the two candidate run-off in May 2017, but that she has no chance of assembling 50 per cent of French voters in the high turnout of the second round of a presidential poll.
In the regional elections, victory is easier. Whatever party comes first past the post next Sunday scoops a bonus of 25 per cent of seats in the local assembly. The rest of the seats are divided proportionally.
Based on today’s results, the FN can only be stopped from winning in the Calais-Lille-Amiens area and in Provence by an alliance of the centre-right and centre-left. Mr Sarkozy has ruled out such an alliance.
It might also be possible for all centre-left candidates om a region to withdraw, allowing Mr Sarkozy’s party a one-on-one fight with the FN. The Prime Minister Mr Valls has suggested that this could happen – but local centre-left politicians detest the idea of giving up all their regional council seats for six years.
