France is braced for another political crisis as the minority government of François Bayrou appears almost certain to be toppled in a confidence vote next month, amid deep political divisions over an unpopular austerity budget and debt-reduction plan.
“I will fight like a dog,” the centrist prime minister told L’Express on Tuesday after his surprise decision to call a vote of confidence from parliamentarians.
Bayrou, 74, a close ally of Emmanuel Macron, is expected to lose the vote as opposition parties on the far right and left said they would relish the opportunity to eject him after less than nine months in office.
Boris Vallaud, the head of the Socialist parliamentary group, told BFM TV: “We need to change politics and for that we need to change prime minister.”
Bayrou’s gamble – which involves Macron convening a special session of parliament on 8 September for a confidence vote that the prime minister has almost no chance of winning – has sparked fears of another political crisis less than a year after the previous government of Michel Barnier was toppled over budget disagreements after only three months.
The Paris stock market tumbled, shares in French banks sank and the country’s borrowing costs rose on Tuesday as investors fretted.
A planned protest movement against Bayrou’s proposed budget cuts, which gathered support on social media over the summer, as well as potential strikes and demonstrations by trade unions are expected to begin on 10 September, regardless of whether Bayrou is forced to quit.
The beleaguered politician attended a meeting of the CFDT trade union on Tuesday where he urged French political parties to think carefully about the vote, noting they had 13 days to “say whether they are on the side of chaos or responsibility”.
Bayrou said: “Is there or is there not a national emergency to rebalance the accounts, to escape excessive debt by choosing to reduce our deficits and produce more? That is the central question.”
In what was seen as a last-minute appeal to the left, he said he was prepared to demand a “specific effort” from high-wealth individuals, after his budget proposals were widely criticised for affecting poor people and pensioners while having less impact on the very wealthy.
If Bayrou is ousted, Macron would be dragged into domestic upheaval at a significant international moment for him, as he positions himself to play a role on Ukraine and the recognition of a Palestinian state.
Under the French political system, the president, who is head of state and has authority on foreign policy and national security, directly appoints a prime minister as head of government to run domestic affairs. Macron could swiftly appoint a new prime minister but they too could risk being ousted over the budget.
A source close to the far-right leader Marine Le Pen told Reuters it was hard to see how any new prime minister could escape being hit by a vote of no confidence.
Le Pen’s party instead wants Macron to dissolve parliament and call a snap election. Macron said this summer he did not want to do this, but the justice minister, Gérald Darmanin, said on Tuesday that an election could not be ruled out.
Since Macron called an inconclusive snap election last June, the French parliament has been divided between three groups with no absolute majority. A left alliance took the largest number of votes but fell short of an absolute majority; Macron’s centrist grouping took losses but is still present; and the far-right National Rally gained seats but was held back from power by tactical voting from the left and centre. The Green leader, Marine Tondelier, said Macron must now appoint a prime minister from the left.
The interior minister, Bruno Retailleau, who leads the rightwing Les Républicains party that has propped up Bayrou, said it would be irresponsible and “against France’s interests” to vote for the government to fall.
At the heart of the crisis is Bayrou’s unpopular and vague plan for a €44bn (£38bn) budget squeeze and austerity programme to reduce France’s public debt. This includes scrapping two public holidays and freezing welfare spending and tax brackets. Hospital staff are concerned about deep cuts to the public health service.
Polls show voters on all political sides see the budget as unfair and letting the wealthiest off the hook. This summer, Bayrou became the least popular French prime minister since the start of the Fifth Republic in 1958, with one poll showing 80% of French people did not trust him.
