The Finance Ministry's Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) is set to raise its forecast on this year's economic growth next week, a senior official says.
Based on initial figures, the FPO is likely to revise up its growth forecast this year from 3.6% predicted in July due to better than expected export growth, Soraphol Tulayasathien, director of the FPO's Macroeconomic Policy Bureau, said.
The ministry's think tank in July predicted that exports would expand by 4.7% but merchandise outbound shipment surged by 9.3% for the nine months to September.
The FPO needs to monitor certain factors, particularly the current flood damages in several provinces to estimate as to whether economic growth can expand at close to 4% as recently estimated by the Finance Ministry's high-ranking officials, Mr Soraphol said.
If the floods recede within a short period, it will not deal a hard blow to the overall economy, he said.
The Bank of Thailand's Monetary Policy Committee in late September raised its GDP growth forecast for both this year and 2018 to 3.8% from the 3.5% and 3.7% it predicted in July, respectively. The rate-setting committee also increased its export growth forecast for this year to 8%, up from 5%.
The National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) in August raised its 2017 economic growth forecast range to 3.5-4% from 3.3-3.8% projected in May after GDP rose by 3.7% year-on-year in the April-June period. The government's think tank is set to announce third-quarter GDP growth and this year's final economic growth projection in November.
In the first half, the economy grew by 3.5% year-on-year.
A source at the Finance Ministry said that the FPO's imminent announcement of the forecast will be the final projection for this year, while the NESDB and the central bank will be the next to review the Thai economic growth forecasts in November and December, respectively.
The FPO recently said that the country's economy was likely to achieve the 3.8% growth forecast by the Bank of Thailand, while Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak has said that economic growth was likely to hit 3.7% in 2017 due to favourable exports, tourism, government and private investments and a consumer rebound.
Permanent secretary for finance Somchai Sujjapongse earlier said that the economy is expected to expand nearly 4% this year, although that will hinge on private and local administration investment levels.
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