The price of supermarket foods is set to rise even further due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, experts warn.
Canned goods and sunflower oil are due to increase in price, but all supermarket goods could rise too due to soaring costs of petrol and fertiliser.
Even before the war, supermarket shoppers have been warned to brace for an annual grocery bill rise of around £180 as the cost of living crisis squeezes households.
But the Russian invasion of Ukraine threatens to increase food bills even further - though we are only just seeing the warning signs.
Market research firm Kantar said food prices rose 4.3% in February, with prices rising fastest for savoury snacks, fresh beef and cat food.
Wheat costs could rise
Ukraine and Russia together produce around 30% of the world's wheat exports, according to the Agricultural Market Information System, which monitors food security in G20 countries.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine threatens to disrupt supplies of these vital commodities.
The average Brit gets about 30% of their calories from grains like wheat, according to 2021 government figures.
Fortunately, the UK is "largely self-sufficient" in grain, a government report said last year. We grow around 90% of the wheat we eat a year, so shortages are unlikely.
But much of that growth relies on fertiliser, and the UK imports 40% of what we use - £735million of the stuff in 2020 alone.
Fertiliser prices are already heading towards £1,000 a tonne, from £650 last week.
This is due to high costs of gas, which is crucial to making it.
The National Farmers' Union said nitrogen fertiliser costs had doubled compared to last year.
Increases in fertiliser costs to farmers would likely be passed on to consumers, meaning higher prices at the tills.
Svein Tore Holsether, the head of Yara, Europe’s biggest fertiliser manufacturer, told the BBC this week that the war would hike the global supply and cost of food.
He said: "For me, it's not whether we are moving into a global food crisis - it's how large the crisis will be."
Cooking oils
There is a chance that prices of cooking oil could increase too.
Russia and Ukraine produce around 80% of the world's sunflower oil.
The UK grows enough oilseeds for 80% of our needs, but has to import the rest.
Canned food
The cost of these could rise this year - but not because of an increase in food prices.
The metals used to make the cans is the issue, as aluminium and nickel prices have gone up 30% in 2022.
London Metal Exchange head Matthew Chamberlain told the Express the cost of canned foods is likely to go up as a result.
Increases in other food costs
The UK produces most of the meat, eggs and dairy it consumes, but we still import around 46% of our food from overseas.
That includes 84% of fruit and 56% of fresh vegetables - except potatoes, where we are 71% self-sufficient.
That food has to be transported, and the cost of that transport is also increasing due to oil prices.
The price of a barrel of oil already hit $139 (£105.8) yesterday, the highest level for nearly 14 years.
Russia is the world's second-biggest producer of crude oil.
It supplies a third of Europe's oil, raising fears that supplies could be limited due to the conflict with Ukraine.
Rises in oil prices will increase the cost of farming and harvesting food, as well as transporting it to shops.
