On the face of it, the new political year kicked off with the same tune on which 2014 faded out. The Conservatives took to the road to convince voters that Britain needed to stay on the path to a stronger economy, Labour meanwhile called on voters to help defend the NHS from the Tories.
But under the surface of Twitter spats between the two main parties’ press accounts, and a raging debate about debates, early indications are that Labour has had a better start to 2015 than the Conservatives.
1. Labour won the first round of the “poster wars”
A poll released by YouGov after the two main parties’ first election poster campaigns found that the claims made by Labour ring true with voters, while the Conservatives’ record is questioned.
Nearly half of those surveyed in the poll agreed that the NHS may not survive five more years of David Cameron, and more than four out of ten agreed that the Tories want to cut spending on public services back to 1930s levels. Significantly, both numbers are higher than Labour’s current voting intention.
One in three agreed with the Conservatives that Labour has made about £20bn of unfunded spending promises, and 49% of British people do not think the government has halved the deficit.
With the two main parties engaged in trying to convince voters which is the most important electoral issue, how the respective messages are perceived matters greatly.
2. Concerns for the NHS are going up, economic worries are going down
In recent weeks, four polls have all revealed the same trend: concern about the state of Britain’s health service is increasing. The latest YouGov issues tracker, a monthly survey which asks voters to list the issues they think are the most important facing the UK, showed that 46% of Britons are most concerned by health, up 13 points since last month. The last quarter of 2014 had seen the issue averaging at 38% in YouGov’s tracker compared to an average of 31% in the first three months of the year.
In the latest ComRes/ITV News index, the NHS has overtaken immigration as the top concern for voters. In Ipsos Mori’s first political monitor of 2015 healthcare-related issues emerged as the dominant topic behind Britons’ choice of party to vote for in May.
Finally, Lord Ashcroft provided critical context to these numbers by revealing the scale of the Tories’ NHS problem: Labour has an 18-point lead over the Conservatives on the NHS.
Each of these polls will all ask voters which issues are most important in slightly different ways. Because of this, aside from the order in which issues are listed, the trend - if voters now view an issue as more or less important compared to how they did previously - is as significant.
The Ipsos Mori 2014 issues index, which is based on an aggregate of more than 10,000 interviews and 12 individual polls carried out throughout 2014 paints a clear picture: concerns over the economy are down in every age group and across all social grades.
While the NHS is behind the economy as a concern, it is seen as the most important issue by 27% of voters, up three points on the year, and concerns over the future of the NHS were up between 2014 and 2013 amongst all analysed groups except among those aged 35-44.
Another of the Conservatives’ key messages - blaming Labour for the current spending cuts - is also weakening.
The coalition moves to its worst ever rating in YouGov's "blame for the cuts" tracker - up 4% since December pic.twitter.com/oqtxPDAY8Y
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 15, 2015
Worryingly for both Labour and the Conservatives, immigration topped the Ipsos Mori year in review index - and concern for this issue is up across all analysed groups.
All of this is important because voters trust different parties to handle different issues more effectively. Ukip is most trusted when it comes to immigration, while the Tories are seen as best at dealing with the economy, and voters feel Labour is the safest pair of hands for the NHS. Because of this, the issues that are most salient in voters’ minds - relative to the other issues they care about - will be one of the main factors influencing who people vote for in May.
3. The debate about the debates
Cameron has indicated that he does not intend to take part in televised leaders’ debates if the Greens are not invited to participate. This prompted Miliband, Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage to take the unusual step of writing to the PM to say that they will press ahead with debates even without him.
The politics of this aside, what does the British public think?
Seven out of ten people think there should be a leaders’ debate. Only 22% believe that Cameron genuinely wants one to happen, compared with 51% for Miliband. Even if the the broadcasters or the party leaders fail to agree on the Greens’ participation, more than half of the British public think the PM should take part anyway, and only one in three think he should refuse. The proportion is almost identical among Conservative supporters – by 51% to 32%.
While Miliband’s personal ratings have recovered slightly from the record lows of previous months, the Labour leader still lags well behind Cameron - and, with the PM’s personal numbers stable, there is no sign of this dynamic changing any time soon. It is highly unlikely that it will change over the next 100 days or so. But bottling the debates isn’t a good look for a prime minister, and may eventually take some of the shine off one of the principal advantages the Tories have so far held over Labour.
4. Labour’s resilience in the polls
At the beginning of last year Labour held a nearly 10 point lead in the polls. Throughout the year this gap gradually narrowed and the two main parties closed the year fundamentally tied.
This trend led many observers to believe that the Conservatives were on course to overtake Miliband’s party. But there isn’t yet an indication of this actually happening. On the contrary in fact, with the exception of a Lord Ashcroft poll that has the Conservatives leading by six points, the trend across polls has Labour marginally ahead. Ipsos Mori figures released on Thursday have Ed Miliband’s party on 34%, ahead by one point and up five points over the course of the past month.
There is of course an elephant in the room, sitting north of the border. Polling numbers from December pointed to a Labour bloodbath in Scotland, with ICM/Guardian figures revealing the SNP could win 45 of 59 Scottish Westminster seats. Such a result would not only preclude Miliband from winning an outright majority, but would also seriously dent any ambition Labour has of becoming the largest party.
Three sets of Scotland polls are expected later this month. They will go a long way in providing a critical barometer to see if Labour has reversed a trend that since the independence referendum of last September has consistently shown the party being all but wiped out in Scotland.
What does this all mean?
There are more than 100 days to go until the election. A lot can still happen in 111 days to yet influence a political landscape that is so fragmented, and alter the outcome of a race that is so close. As voting day nears, people tend to think about an election more, to pay closer attention to the campaign and ultimately decide how (and if) they will cast their ballot. Many will firm up their decision - and in fact more than half of Britons say they may still change their mind.
Only about one in two of both Labour supporters and Conservative backers claim to have made up their mind. This compares to 56% of Ukip voters who say they won’t change their voting intention, and to more than eight in ten Liberal Democrat supporters that say they may still change their minds.
Nationwide polls only provide a snapshot. The mood music for a general election that is comprised of 650 separate races. The two main parties are locked in a close contest and most probably heading towards a hung parliament. But amid a lot of noise and flurry, we have a few signals that indicate Labour has had a better start to to the year than the Tories.
Ed Miliband winning over future voters, one Instagram comment at a time. pic.twitter.com/o4Q04t6Uqm
— BuzzFeed UK Politics (@BuzzFeedUKPol) January 16, 2015
