Sir Sadiq Khan is on track to win a fourth term as Mayor of London, according to a new poll.
But where is the former Labour MP for Tooting getting his support to serve 16 years in City Hall?
Detailed findings of the Savanta UK survey for the Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London, show Labour’s candidate ahead across the capital of all the contenders from the other parties.
The candidates were not named in the polling fieldwork.
But Sir Sadiq, having been in City Hall since 2016, is known across London as the Labour candidate.
The only other party to have selected a mayoral contender is Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, with former Conservative Westminster councillor Laila Cunningham now taking on Sir Sadiq.
But even in Outer London where Reform won control of Havering Council at the May local elections, the Labour candidate is ahead on 29% of the vote in the mayoral race, followed by Reform and the Tories both on 19%, the Greens 16% and Liberal Democrats 10%.
In Labour’s traditional stronghold of Inner London, Sir Sadiq’s party is on 40%, more than double any other party.
Some of the results need to be treated with caution given the small sample size once the poll is broken down geographically, by age, ethnicity, income, housing type and education.
Sir Sadiq, though, sweeps the board in nearly all the categories, compared to the other parties.
But he is also well short of gaining the backing of a majority of Londoners in nearly all the findings.
So the results suggest that while he has a firm base of support which will return him to City Hall, if he stands in 2028, that he is nevertheless not overwhelmingly popular in the capital.
In the age breakdowns, he is ahead apart from among Londoners aged 55 and over, where Labour is on 22%, behind the Conservatives on 29%.
The early frontrunner to be the Tory mayoral challenger is former London Assembly member Sir James Cleverly, the MP for Braintree who has served as Home Secretary.
Sir Sadiq leads among 18 to 24-year-olds on 38%, the 25 to 34 age group on 45%, 35 to 44 on 34%, and 45 to 54 on 35%.
The gender split shows Labour ahead among both women and men, on 35% and 32% respectively, with Zack Polanski’s Greens being the only other party to reach 20%, for its score among women.
A more detailed geographical breakdown among borough groups, shows Labour well ahead in Central, East, North and South London, and level-pegging on 24% in the West with Reform on 23%, and the Greens who made major gains in London in the May local elections on 21%.
“Labour are ahead across nearly all the categories,” said Dr Eoghan Kelly, a postdoctoral researcher in British politics at QMUL.
“But they also fall well short of a majority in nearly every category.
“So, people’s second preference votes will be very important.”
By type of housing, Labour leads in all the categories apart from homeowners without a mortgage, where it is on 26% compared to 30% for the Tories.
Labour’s strongest support is among homeowners with a mortgage, on 43%, followed by tenants renting in the private sector, 36% and double the support of any other party, and then tenants in social or council homes, on 33%.
Sir Sadiq’s party is comfortably ahead across all income groups.
Labour gets the backing of 25% of white London voters, the same as Reform, and 64% of those of mixed ethnicity, 36% of Asian background, and 53% of black individuals.
Among Londoners who have been to university, Labour is far ahead on 39%, with the Greens in second place on 18%.
Among non-graduates, Reform leads on 28%, with Labour on 24% and the Tories 22%.
A third of working Londoners, 34%, are backing Sir Sadiq, as are 33% of those not working, with only the Tories scoring on this question above 18%, with 25% of non-working Londoners.
* Savanta interviewed 1,038 adult Londoners online between 30th June and July 8th. Data are weighted.
