The smoke revolving around Kevin Durant signing with the New York Knicks continues to cloud the Golden State Warriors.
While the Warriors plan to re-sign Durant, they probably have contingencies in case he leaves. In the event of his exit, the Warriors will seek to replace him with a serviceable starting wing either via trade or free agency.
The Warriors will enter the July 1 free agency period with $89.30 million in payroll to seven players, which puts them $42.7 million below the projected $132 million luxury tax threshold.
With or without Durant, the Warriors are expected to quickly re-sign Klay Thompson to a maximum deal, similar to how they maxed out Stephen Curry on the eve of his free agency in 2017.
Thompson getting a projected $32.7 million cap hit would leave the Warriors $10 million below the tax threshold, giving them enough space to utilize the entire non-taxpayer mid-level exception (NT-MLE) this offseason and sign a forward to replace Durant. The NT-MLE is projected to be $9.25 million for 2019-20.
It is difficult to predict how the Warriors will construct the roster if Durant departs. They may trade other players on the roster for his replacement or take a step back next season and trade Draymond Green or Andre Iguodala for financial flexibility and affordable replacements.
Both Green and Iguodala are expiring and make a lot of money, so the Warriors could benefit from converting their salaries into young players, picks and depth. It is also too early to tell if the Warriors are willing to utilize the entire NT-MLE since it would hard-cap them. Golden State would be restricted from surpassing the projected $138 million threshold for the entire 2019-20 season, but trades can be made to work around it.
For the sake of simplicity, assuming the Warriors want to retain the core except for Durant, let’s look at four free-agent wings the Warriors could offer the NT-MLE. This list focuses on starting-level small forwards who could be challenging to sign, but also of amazing value for the NT-MLE. These players are starting-caliber wings who would fit very well with the Warriors and should start for them.
The list excludes players with lucrative player options they are unlikely to decline (Kent Bazemore, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist), free agents who should earn much more than the NT-MLE (Bojan Bogdanovic, JJ Redick), top restricted free agents (Kelly Oubre) and Patrick McCaw.
Up first, Rudy Gay.
Rudy Gay
Rudy Gay was a potential target for the Warriors last summer. Before signing DeMarcus Cousins with their entire taxpayer MLE ($5.34 million), Golden State was open to spending that money on a player of Gay’s caliber. They didn’t get a chance at him, however, because Gay and the Spurs quickly came to terms on a one-year deal worth double what the Warriors could have offered him.
The Spurs, like the Warriors, won’t have cap space this summer, so the Spurs may look to re-sign Gay as soon as free agency opens again. This year, they’ll have his early bird rights, so San Antonio will be able to offer him a multi-year deal with a starting salary up to $17.6 millin. If Gay wants to play for the Warriors, though, he may seek a similar role for a little less than he is earning this season. If negotiations with the Spurs don’t work out, Gay becomes an obvious candidate for the Warriors, garnering a similar salary to what he earned this season.
Trevor Ariza
Like Gay, Trevor Ariza is another player the Warriors would’ve loved to add last offseason, but who was way out of their price range. This may be the case again depending on the market and how much the Wizards are willing to pay him. Washington can use his non-bird rights to sign Ariza to a one-year $18 million deal. With last year’s trend of high salary one-year deals, it’s possible Ariza gets a salary equal to, or close to, the $15 million he earned in the 2018-19 season. Still, Ariza’s fit with the Warriors would be perfect: He’d provide enough defense, versatility and three-point shooting to complement the skill sets of the other Golden State players. If the Warriors offer him enough years, Ariza may be willing to take less money in the short term.
Marcus Morris
Marcus Morris could fill the hole on toughness and scoring that a Durant departure would leave behind. There should be no shortage of suitors for Morris, but he will most likely try to re-sign with Boston on a multi-year deal since they have his full bird rights. But Morris’ future may be decided by how Boston’s offseason goes. If Boston re-signs Kyrie Irving and trades for Anthony Davis, for example, the Celtics will be more inclined to pay Morris because they’ll need the depth. If Irving leaves and Boston takes a step back next year, the Celtics may choose to let him go. If Morris is looking for a new home, Golden State would be a great fit for him.
Danny Green
A bit undersized, but Danny Green would be great for the Warriors — whether starting or coming off the bench. Like Morris, Green has full bird rights and, like Boston, Toronto re-signing him probably has a lot more to do with the direction of their franchise depending on what happens in the offseason with other players.
Green could definitely be had for the NT-MLE and should be viewed as more than just a consolation prize. Even though the priority for the Warriors is to find a starting small forward, they should try to lock up a player like Green should he become the best option available.
Other players in Green’s tier include: Iman Shumpert, Reggie Bullock, Terrence Ross and Garrett Temple.
As mentioned above, the players listed above should be prime targets the Warriors should pursue, but it would still be very hard for Golden State to sign any of them. If the Warriors strike out on all of them, they can acquire a starting wing via trade, or divide the NT-MLE among multiple players, such as Wesley Matthews, DeMarre Carroll and Wayne Ellington.
Golden State also could fill up its bench with some serviceable wings for the minimum, or close to it, such as Wilson Chandler, Thabo Sefolosha, Vince Carter and Gerald Green.
No matter what, losing Durant would be a setback. But if the Warriors can replace him with a Rudy Gay or Trevor Ariza-type, some damage would be alleviated.
