Jan Vertonghen will leave Tottenham in the summer unless his contract is extended.
The Belgian defender joined Spurs in 2012, and has been a colossus at the back over the past eight years.
But as his 33rd birthday approaches, and with performances seemingly on the slide, his long-term future at the club is in doubt.
But when the time comes, how do Spurs replace such a consistent performer without the mass wealth of the Manchester Citys and PSGs of this world?
Smart scouting is one way, and we thought we’d give it a go.
Rather than throwing a selection of names into the ether, we wanted to build an accurate scouting profile of the players Spurs generally explore (age, league, academy upbringing) in order to simulate the right recruitment drive.
We analysed Spurs’ previous 45 signings and ranked them as either successful or unsuccessful purchases before extracting the key information. You’ll find more information about this process at the bottom of the article.
Then, using the intuitive algorithms of professional scouting system Smarterscout, we got to work identifying players who would potentially fit the mould.
We set the desired qualities and Smarterscout trawled its 45-league database to identify the players with similar skill sets and characteristics.
Then, using our ‘Tottenham scouting profile’, we worked through the results…
Recognising the ‘Optimum Vertonghen’
Vertonghen was at his peak in the 2017-18 season. Spurs finished third in the Premier League, and he won the club’s player of the year award. We selected this season from his Smarterscout profile.
His qualities complement those of defensive partner Toby Alderweireld. Aldweireld prefers longer, direct passes from the back. Vertonghen prefers shorter distribution. Vertonghen likes to move with the ball out of defence. Alderweireld is more conservative in his movements with the ball, and generally stays back. In conjunction with a disciplined holding midfielder such as Victor Wanyama or Eric Dier, you have a near-perfect balance of cover and fluidity.
The positional map above highlights how Alderweireld generally sticks to right-centre of the pitch, whereas Vertonghen will venture further forward, and across the pitch both when recovering the ball and bringing it out from defence. Those differences may appear subtle, but they have been keen to the effectiveness of their partnership.
Vertonghen is also more dominant in the air compared to Alderweireld, with Vertonghen winning more headers in both open play and dead ball situations.
| Aerial duels in open play | Aerial duels from dead balls | |
| Jan Vertonghen | 62/100 | 91/100 |
| Toby Alderweireld | 33/100 | 77/100 |
Spurs probably hoped that Juan Foyth would evolve into a Vertonghen-type in terms of ball retention. He may yet do so, but his developed has stalled in the past 18 months and the Argentine now finds himself bellow Davinson Sanchez and Japhet Tanganga in the pecking order under Jose Mourinho.
While the average of age Tottenham’s last 45 signings is 23-years-old, Vertonghen and Alderweireld were 25 and 26 respectively at the time of signing. So we will raise the threshold to 26 and below in this search.
The shortlist
| Player | Age | Club | Nationality |
| Issa Diop | 23 | West Ham | French |
Tottenham were linked with a move for the West Ham defender last month who has impressed since joining the club in from Toulouse in 2018.
Spurs have been increasingly active in the French market in recent seasons, albeit with mixed success.
But Diop is proven in the Premier League, and shares similar traits with Vertonghen.
The 23-year-old is strong in the air and comfortable on the ball, though his ball recovery is inferior to Vertonghen’s.
Diop played at left centre-back for 1655 minutes last season, during which his aerial statistics were superior to Vertonghen's. He scored 78/100 for duels in open play, and 92/100 from dead ball situations. His positional activity on the pitch was also remarkably similar.
Whether West Ham can secure Premier League survival this season will go a long way to deciding Diop's future. The Hammers would be reluctant to do business with Spurs, but history shows that, following relegation, Tottenham often move for West Ham's best talents.
| Player | Age | Club | Nationality |
| Diego Llorente | 26 | Real Sociedad | Spanish |
Diego Llorente came through the youth system at Real Madrid, but has had to establish himself elsewhere. The 26-year-old joined Real Sociedad in 2017 after spells at Rayo Vallecano and Malaga.
Physically strong and technically sound with decent pace, Llorente is hard to beat one on one, quick to intercept and is comfortable bringing the ball out from the back.
A central defender, he can also operate in both full-back positions or as a defensive midfielder. He has played five times for Spain
His versatility would appeal to Spurs, much like Vertonghen’s did back in 2012.
| Player | Age | Club | Nationality |
| Marin Pongracic | 22 | VfL Wolfsburg | Croatian |
The youngest of the players identified, Pongracic joined VfL Wolfsburg in the January transfer window from Red Ball Salzburg for £9m.
The Croatian Under 21 international was originally spotted by Bayern Munich's youth academy before being lured across to Ingolstadt and then 1860 Munich, before joining Salzburg in 2017.
He has made one appearance in the Champions League before moving to the Bundesliga, and remains relatively raw.
He may be deemed too inexperienced to replace Vertonghen, but his qualities have already seen him be compared to Mats Hummels, and he has the potential to develop into a Vertonghen-like defender.
| Player | Age | Club | Nationality |
| Jack O'Connell | 25 | Sheffield United | English |
Like Diop, O’Connell was also linked with a move to Tottenham during the January transfer window.
The former Brentford centre-back started his career at Blackburn Rovers, and can operate as a makeshift left-back if required.
O'Connell is required to push forward more frequently than Vertonghen in Chris Wilder's system at Sheffield United, but in addition to offering increased resilience in open play, he is still willing to cover his centre-back partner as displayed in the positional map below.
His distribution and ability to pass forward, a trait enjoyed by Toby Alderweireld, would also appeal to Jose Mourinho who operates with a more direct approach compared to Mauricio Pochettino.
How we built our Tottenham scouting profile
Analysing the 45 signings Spurs have made since the start of the 2011-12 season generates an average age of 23 at the time of purchase. 22 per cent of them have graduated from either Belgian or Dutch academies.
We excluded the six players purchased in the recent January and summer windows to allow for a period of adaptation to the Premier League, and deemed 20 of the 39 remaining signings to have been ‘successful’.
The average age increased to 24, with 30 per cent of them having come through Belgian or Dutch academies. 35 per cent were either signed directly from the Dutch Eredivisie, or had previously played in Netherlands’ top flight.
Of the 19 ‘unsuccessful’ signings, 36 per cent graduated from either Spanish or French academies.
