Formula 1 is quietly becoming one of the most powerful profit engines in sports media and Goldman Sachs is going full throttle.
On Monday, Goldman Sachs analyst Stephen Laszczyk reinstated coverage of Liberty Formula One Group (NASDAQ:FWONK) – owner of the Formula 1 and newly acquired MotoGP racing series – with a Buy rating and a 12-month price target of $120, suggesting a 17% total return potential.
In the report, Laszczyk calls Liberty Formula One Group a "high quality, execution-based growth story with potential for outsized capital returns", making it one of the firm’s top picks in the global sports media space.
Four Reasons Why FWONK Stock Is In Pole Position
1. F1 Is Firing On All Cylinders
Goldman expects Formula 1 revenue to grow at 8% annually through 2028, driven by gains in race promotion, media rights, and sponsorships. Adjusted operating income is projected to expand at 15% per year, with margins getting a boost from a new Concorde Agreement kicking off in 2026.
This will be driven by gains across its three core verticals: Race Promotion, Media Rights, and Sponsorship.
Laszczyk highlights that Formula 1 is capitalizing on the increasingly favorable supply-demand dynamic for hosting Grand Prix events, particularly in legacy European venues and emerging growth markets like the U.S.
The Las Vegas Grand Prix, in particular, is expected to rebound from a weak second year.
On the media rights side, Goldman sees upside from step-ups in upcoming renewals in the U.S., Australia, and Latin America, and notes that around 40% of F1's media rights revenue is up for renegotiation by the end of 2026.
Goldman analysts expect U.S. rights alone to jump from $85 million/year to $130 million/year, helped by rising engagement and reported interest from streamers like Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL).
Sponsorship revenue is projected to rise at a 10% CAGR, aided by high-profile additions like LVMH–Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton (OTCPK: LVMHF), PepsiCo Inc. (NASDAQ:PEP), and Nestlé S.A. (OTCPK: NSRGY), plus new advertising partners in untapped verticals.
2. MotoGP: A High-Potential Growth Engine
Liberty Media's acquisition of MotoGP is seen as a long-term win. With a business model echoing F1's, MotoGP is gearing up for global expansion and expects to grow profits by 13% CAGR through 2028—even with short-term repositioning.
“MotoGP has the opportunity to globalize its calendar,” Laszczyk notes, with 64% of races currently concentrated in Europe and roughly one-third of contracts up for renewal over the next two years.
The firm also sees a pathway to expanding from 22 races per year to 24 over time.
"We see meaningful opportunity for MotoGP… to benefit under the stewardship of Liberty Media as it navigates further expansion into the global marketplace for sports media, sponsorship and event promotion," Laszczyk wrote.
3. Massive Buyback Potential As Leverage Falls
Liberty Formula One's capital-light model and rising profitability should unlock massive free cash flow.
"This deleveraging will afford Liberty Formula One the option to return significant capital to shareholders in the coming years," he said.
"At 2.5x net leverage, we estimate that Liberty Formula One could return over $6B of capital to shareholders by 2030, or about 25% of current market capitalization."
4. Premium Valuation Backed By Premium Assets
At 23.5x EBITDA and nearly 29x free cash flow, Liberty Formula One doesn't look like a bargain.
But Goldman says the price is right for a unique asset.
"We believe the stock's premium multiple is justified," Laszczyk wrote, highlighting the company's exposure to global sports rights, execution capabilities, and strong free cash flow conversion.
Bottom Line
Formula 1 is no longer just racing—it’s an expanding media juggernaut with real pricing power and global brand momentum. With MotoGP now under its wing, Liberty Formula One is assembling a high-margin, capital-light sports empire poised for explosive cash returns.
Goldman Sachs sees FWONK as one of the clearest plays on the future of live entertainment—and it's still early in the race.
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