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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andrew Sparrow

Senior EU leaders cast doubt on UK's Brexit backstop plan – as it happened

Theresa May
Theresa May. Photograph: Wiktor Szymanowicz/REX/Shutterstock

Afternoon summary

  • Senior EU leaders expressed doubts about the government’s plan (pdf). Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, suggested the proposals did not meet all the EU’s concerns. (See 2.02pm.) And Guy Verhofstadt, the European parliament’s lead Brexit spokesman, suggested the plan was not a “workable solution”. (See 3.42pm.)
  • MPs have approved a Commons motion ordering the former Vote Leave campaign director Dominic Cummings to give an undertaking to the culture committee by Monday to appear before it by Wednesday 20 June to give evidence.

That’s all from me.

Thanks for the comments.

Cable announces plan to reform public sector outsourcing

It was rather overshadowed by everything else, but Sir Vince Cable, the Lib Dem leader, gave a speech this morning containing a plan to reform public sector outsourcing. Here are his key proposals from the Lib Dem news release.

1) no outsourcing where the profit motive should not play a role, such as rehabilitation of offenders

2) private sector companies that deliver public sector contracts to be subject to Freedom of Information requests

3) a share of public contracts should be reserved for businesses run by target demographics, including women, ethnic minorities, disabled people, and ex-servicemen and women

4) better trained, specialist professionals in civil service procurement roles that negotiate contracts

5) consideration be given to the creation of new legal entities for companies that regularly deliver public sector contracts

Benn says government has only produced 'half a backstop'

Hilary Benn, the Labour MP who chairs the Commons Brexit committee, has put out this statement about the government’s backstop plan.

The government seems to have conceded that the whole of the UK will, in effect, be staying in a customs union with the EU after the end of the transition period in December 2020 if a future partnership agreement hasn’t been concluded by then. This is a recognition of blunt reality. But this backstop contains no proposal on regulatory standards which will also be essential to keep an open border in Northern Ireland. Half a backstop is therefore unlikely to be sufficient to make progress possible at the June European council.

On time-limiting the backstop, the proposal makes it clear that it will last as long as it takes to bring in another system. And since ministers can’t say how long that will be, the backstop will be here to stay unless and until it is replaced by other arrangements that can also keep an open border in Northern Ireland.

Compared to December, the DUP is positively triumphant over today’s backstop proposal because it cements paragraph 50 in the December deal which said that “in the absence of agreed solutions” the UK would ensure “no new regulatory barriers” between Northern Ireland and the UK.

The irony is that paragraph 50 was inserted after DUP leader Arlene Foster threatened to torpedo the deal in early December in a huge test for Theresa May.

At the time Dublin was feeling very pleased that the DUP got the extra paragraph.

They felt it was a win-win because it meant their own guarantees on “full alignment” between Northern Ireland and the republic in the previous paragraph were left untouched. “Not a word was changed,” sources said at the time.

At the time many thought the DUP was playing with fire by embarrassing May in Brussels. Sources say Foster’s decision to intervene so decisively in December was “transformative” to the party. “We are involved in dialogue with the prime minister all the time, teasing things out,” said a source.

What a difference a few months makes; the source meant “transformative in the way the party is treated.”

Sinn Fein leader in Northern Ireland, Michelle O’Neill was in Westminster today meeting Northern Ireland secretary Karen Bradley as the backstop row unfolded in Downing Street.

O’Neill said the Irish government could not agree to a time-limited backstop and said it was “the absolute bottom line” in protecting the Good Friday agreement.

“What has been produced today is more a proposal to deal with the disarray in the Tory party, rather than a genuine proposal that will be accepted by Europe,” she told the Guardian. She went on:

The backstop is the absolute bottom line.

The British government have had all this time to come up with an alternative proposal if they don’t like the backstop, but they haven’t. This is not going to play.

You cannot put a time limit on a guarantee. It’s the only guarantee we have in this whole debate. So I am very much looking towards Dublin, to the Irish government. They need to stand up for the national interest. There can be no room for wriggling out of the backstop agreed back in December.

O’Neill said that Davis had failed to properly engage with the seriousness of the issue with the Irish border. She said:

I don’t have confidence in David Davis, who has ignored the people of the North, he has ignored the majority vote in the North. They have not genuinely engaged and they are putting in jeopardy our Good Friday agreement.

Michelle O’Neill at Westminster today.
Michelle O’Neill at Westminster today. Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA

No 10 says UK will not let EU have veto over when backstop ends

At the lobby briefing with journalists this afternoon, the prime minister’s spokeswoman denied the hard-fought Northern Irish backstop plan was a “fudge”, saying: “I wouldn’t recognise that the word that you’ve chosen to put to me.”

She played down the significance of this morning’s dramatic meetings with David Davis, saying:

The prime minister has rightly held discussions with many of her cabinet ministers on this important issue. We have now got a document which is agreed government policy.

Asked whether the December 2021 date was legally binding, she said:

The backstop is not something that we want to come to be; we remain confident that we will have our customs arrangements in place by the implementation period - but, as a sensible government, of course we cannot ignore the possibility that there may be technical delays.

It also became clear that the government hopes to avoid a situation in which the EU27 would hold a veto over when the backstop period should end. The spokeswoman said:

It’s important to say that we’re not going to sign up to anything which means that the EU could hold us in a temporary backstop when our customs arrangements are ready. At the point that a new customs arrangement that meets our commitment on Northern Ireland is ready, the backstop must end.

She was also pressed on whether implementing the backstop would mean the government having to make additional payments to the EU. She appeared to choose her words carefully, repeatedly saying: “There’s no legal requirement to pay into the EU budget after the implementation period.”

This is from Bloomberg’s Ian Wishart.

And this is from Sky’s Zach Brown.

Nigel Dodds, the DUP leader at Westminster, has now issued a longer statement about the UK’s government’s backstop plan, describing it as “a step forward”.

Scottish government announces inquiry into policing of miners' strike

An independent review into the impact of policing during the miners’ strike of the 1980s is to be carried out in Scotland, the Press Association reports. Michael Matheson, the Scottish government’s justice secretary, announced the move in Holyrood, telling MSPs: “I am determined that the Scottish government should do what it can to do right by those affected by the dispute.”

The UK government has already ruled out an inquiry into the violent confrontations between police and striking miners in Orgreave, South Yorkshire, in 1984. Matheson said doing nothing was not an option for him as he urged new home secretary, Sajid Javid, to follow his example.

John Scott QC will lead the inquiry, which will make its recommendations by June next year. It will look at “the impact of policing on affected communities in Scotland” between March 1984 and March 1985.

In his statement Matheson said:

Through this independent review, Scotland will lead the way in ensuring the experiences of those affected by the policing of the dispute in the 1980s are properly understood.

This represented an extremely turbulent and difficult time for many mining communities in Scotland. And although more than three decades have passed, the feelings and scars from that time still run deep and there are questions that still need to be answered.

I want this review to bring openness, understanding and a degree of closure to all those involved. At the same time, I have written to the home secretary to ask that he seriously reconsider the UK government’s position at this point - only a UK-wide investigation could fully explore concerns about the involvement of the then UK government.

Police hold back picket line protestors to let through a lorry carrying coal at Ravenscraig, Scotland, during miners strike in May 1984
Police hold back picket line protestors to let through a lorry carrying coal at Ravenscraig, Scotland, during miners strike in May 1984
 Photograph: Alamy Stock Photo

The DUP Commons leader Nigel Dodds told the BBC in Northern Ireland today’s backstop deal was a “massive step forward” because it extended the regulatory alignment to the whole of the UK while negotiations on the final trade relationship were ongoing.

“Theresa May has stuck to her word that no PM could countenance a border in the Irish Sea ... our red line has not been breached,” he told Sky News in Ireland.

Dodds met May yesterday, in contrast to December when the DUP were not taken into the prime minister’s confidence and threatened to torpedo the Brussels-London deal.

According to the Sun’s Tom Newton Dunn, some in Number 10 have been declaring victory over David Davis.

This is from my colleague Daniel Boffey, the Guardian’s Brussels bureau chief.

MS are member states.

Verhofstadt suggests UK's Brexit backstop plan not a 'workable solution'

Guy Verhofstadt, the European parliament’s lead spokesman on Brexit, has now posted a tweet about the UK’s Brexit backstop plan. He is raising the same concerns as Michel Barnier (see 2.02pm) and the Irish government (see 3.28pm), but he is more blunt that Barnier, implying that what was published today is not a “workable solution”.

Former Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale urged Nicola Sturgeon to raise Northern Ireland’s abortion ban with DUP leader Arlene Foster when she visits Scotland at the end of the month.

Speaking during first minister’s questions on Thursday lunchtime, Dugdale called for a travel bursary to be introduced for women travelling from Northern Ireland to access abortion services which the Scottish government made free to them last November.

Sturgeon said that she had “no plans” to meet Foster, who will be leading an Orange Order march in Fife on July 30.

She added that the Scottish government would continue to look at how to make it easier for Northern Irish women to access abortion services in Scotland, and expressed her hoped that, once the Northern Ireland Assembly was up and running again, it would address abortion rights swiftly.

It’s a tricky position for Sturgeon, who has always been resolutely pro-choice, but is unlikely to want to lend her support to the Westminster government essentially imposing abortion reform on a devolved administration. Of course there is the argument that there is currently no administration, and that human rights trump devolution, but it would set a dangerous precedent from the SNP’s perspective. I’d be curious to know how many SNP MPs support Stella Creasy’s campaign.

Nicola Sturgeon during first minister’s questions in the Scottish parliament today.
Nicola Sturgeon during first minister’s questions in the Scottish parliament today. Photograph: Ken Jack - Corbis/Corbis via Getty Images

Irish PM says UK Brexit backstop cannot be time limited

Ireland’s prime minister Leo Varadkar dismissed the idea of a time-limited backstop earlier today.

Using a phrase the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michael Barnier used in a subsequent tweet (see 2.02pm), Varadkar told reporters in Dublin that the backstop had to be an insurance policy for “all weather” not just for the UK’s convenience. He said:

The principle that is in the existing backstop that is supported by the 27 EU member states is that it applies at least until there is an alternative in place. It is not something that can be just time limited.

Varadkar was speaking just before the backstop paper was published in London. He went on:

It has to be as they say ’all weather’, it has to be applicable until such a time if and when there is a new relationship between the EU and UK that prevents a hard border.

This flatly contradicts the UK government document, which clearly says the backstop should be time limited. Although paragraph 26, about ending the backstop in December 2021, is provisional (“the UK expects”), paragraph 6 is clear that there should be some sort of time limit. (See 1.44pm.) It says:

This temporary arrangement would only come into force following the implementation period, in specific and narrow circumstances, such as a delay in the implementation of the end state customs arrangement, and would be time-limited.

Leo Varadkar
Leo Varadkar Photograph: Brian Lawless/PA

Sky’s Lewis Goodall thinks David Davis hasn’t come out of it all that badly.

Here is the Irish government’s statement on the UK’s new plan for the Brexit backstop. It is from Simon Coveney, the foreign minister and deputy prime minister. He says there must be “substantial progress” on the backstop plan by the time of the EU summit at the end of June.

It’s not easy coming up with a reliable analysis while the story is still unfolding. ITV’s Robert Peston posted a snap Facebook analysis saying “Davis has won.” But he has been adding various PSs, revising his view, culminating with one saying: “Even Davis’s closest friends concede he blinked.” Not easy, this live news stuff. To his credit, Peston has left it all up.

This is from Stewart Jackson, David Davis’s chief of staff.

Some Twitter debate about whether David Davis won or lost.

This is from the Times’ Sam Coates.

Barnier raises doubts about UK's new Brexit backstop plan

Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, has just posted this on Twitter about the government’s Brexit backstop plan.

Although Barnier’s tweet sounds relatively neutral, the three questions he asks suggests he has doubts about the viability of what has been proposed so far.

1) “Is it a workable solution to avoid a hard border?” Barnier seems to be pointing out that the document published today only covers the customs element of the backstop. The backstop plan set out in the December joint report by the UK and the EU (pdf) said the backstop would have to involve “full alignment with those rules of the internal market and the customs union”. In other words, it would have to go further than just remaining an effective member of the customs union.

2) “Does it respect the integrity of the SM/CU [single market/customs union]?” This is a similar point. But whenever Barnier talks about the “integrity” of the single market, he tends to be referring to accepting European court of justice rulings. Today’s document (pdf) does include a passage on dispute resolution, but it does not go as far as saying the UK would continue to be bound by ECJ rulings while the backstop was operating.

3) “Is it an all-weather backstop?” This seems to be a way of asking whether it would last as long as necessary. The UK government says clearly (see 1.44pm) that it expects it would only last for a year.

Updated

What government Brexit backstop plan says - Snap summary and analysis

Here are key extracts from the paper.

This is what it says about how the backstop would operate.

Therefore, to deliver on its joint report commitment and ensure the integrity of the UK market, the UK is putting forward a proposal for the customs element of the backstop that would apply to customs arrangements between the UK and EU and avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland. The UK’s proposal is that in the circumstances in which the backstop is agreed to apply, a temporary customs arrangement should exist between the UK and the EU.

This arrangement would see:

  • The elimination of tariffs, quotas, rules of origin and customs processes including declarations on all UK-EU trade;
  • The UK outside the scope of the common commercial policy (CCP), except where it is required to enable the temporary customs arrangement to function. This will mean applying the EU’s common external tariff (CET) at the UK’s external border, alongside the union customs code (UCC) and such other parts of the common commercial policy that are required to enable the temporary customs arrangement to function; and
  • The UK able to negotiate, sign and ratify free trade agreements (FTAs) with rest of world partners and implement those elements that do not affect the functioning of the temporary customs arrangement.

The temporary customs arrangement will be replaced by a permanent end state settlement, whose terms will need to be agreed by both parties. This temporary arrangement would only come into force following the implementation period, in specific and narrow circumstances, such as a delay in the implementation of the end state customs arrangement, and would be time-limited. The UK is clear that this is not its preferred option.

And this is what it says specifically about how the backstop would be time limited.

The UK is clear that the temporary customs arrangement, should it be needed, should be time limited, and that it will be only in place until the future customs arrangement can be introduced. The UK is clear that the future customs arrangement needs to deliver on the commitments made in relation to Northern Ireland. The UK expects the future arrangement to be in place by the end of December 2021 at the latest. There are a range of options for how a time limit could be delivered, which the UK will propose and discuss with the EU.

So, to summarise:

  • The government’s backstop plan would effectively keep the UK in the customs union after the transition ends in December 2020. While the backstop was operating the government would be able to sign and implement free trade deals with other countries, but it would not be able to implement those aspects of the trade deals relating to tariffs - which would largely render them pointless. (The UK would not be free to offer non-EU countries lower tariffs.) This is hard to square with Theresa May’s insistence that the UK must operate an independent trade policy from 2021.
  • The government plan says the backstop should only last for 12 months at most. The transition is due to end in December 2020, and the government document says the UK “expects the future arrangement to be in place by the end of December 2021 at the latest.” But “expects” is not a firm guarantee, and this statement does not say what would happen if the final customs plan (which the government claims will settle the Irish border problem for good) is not in place by then.
  • The government document does not say how the time limit would operate - which really means who gets to decide when it ends. There are “a range of options”, it says, and this is a matter the government says it wants to discuss with the EU. But this issue is crucial. Brexiters want to have the UK to have the power to bring the backstop to an end unilaterally, so the government can then enjoy the full benefits of future trade deals. But the EU does not want to agree a backstop that could end without a solution to the Irish border issue. On this issue, the document does not so much fudge the problem as ignore it altogether.

Updated

Government publishes new Brexit backstop plan

The government has published its new plan for the Brexit backstop (pdf).

I will summarise it shortly.

Rupert Harrison, who used to be George Osborne’s chief of staff when Osborne was chancellor, suspects that Theresa May got the better of David Davis in the backstop negotiation.

Sir Vince Cable, the Lib Dem leader, has said the prospect of the UK ending up with a no deal Brexit is increasing. He told the Press Association:

The idea that we could finish up with no deal at all - which we effectively discarded three months ago - is very much now back on the table as a real possibility.

We could be in real crisis with no deal, which emphasises the importance of having a vote on the final package with the option of remaining in the European Union.

Sir Vince Cable.
Sir Vince Cable. Photograph: DAVID HARTLEY/REX/Shutterstock

This is from the Sun’s Tom Newton Dunn.

And this is from my colleague Heather Stewart.

She was commenting on this tweet.

This is from Sky’s Lewis Goodall.

Davis claims to have firmed up requirement that Brexit backstop must be time limited

The David Davis camp are claiming Davis, the Brexit secretary, has firmed up the requirement that the backstop must be time limited. This is from ITV’s Robert Peston.

We will see the actual language when the backstop document is published later.

But, if Davis has firmed up the requirement that the backstop must be time limited, he may also have increased the chances of the EU declaring the proposal unacceptable.

Updated

The Times’ Sam Coates has knocked down a theory he was floating earlier. (See 12.01pm.)

The BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg reckons Theresa May has “rolled over”.

Updated

This is from Politico Europe’s Tom McTague.

But ITV’s Paul Brand has spoken to someone who is saying something different.

It is worth pointing out that not everyone briefing anonymously about what David Davis will or will not do is necessarily speaking on his behalf. Some of the off-the-record comments about his intentions could be coming from sources who have their own agenda and who are trying to box him in, one way or another.

The resignation is now back off, apparently.

At least you can’t complain that this is predictable ....

Sir Craig Oliver, David Cameron’s former communications director, thinks the David Davis resignation speculation is damaging the government.

Douglas Carswell, the former Tory MP who defected to Ukip, says the whole thing reminds him why he dislikes the Conservative party.

Sky’s Beth Rigby says David Davis was not expecting another meeting with Theresa May.

This is from my colleague Heather Stewart.

Here is my colleage Pippa Crerar’s backgrounder explaining what the May/Davis backstop row is all about.

Hold on. Another meeting ...

The Times’ Sam Coates is floating an interesting theory ...

Olly Robbins is the prime minister’s lead Brexit adviser. He was permanent secretary at the Brexit department, but moved to the Cabinet Office amid reports that his relationship with David Davis was breaking down. The Brexiters dislike him because they think he is vetoing the use of hardball tactics with Brussels and persuading May (with some success) to go for a soft Brexit.

Journalists with good Brexiter connections seem to think it might be too early to write off the prospect of a Davis resignation.

This is from the Spectator’s James Forsyth.

And this is from the Guido Fawkes website.

Following this morning’s meetings, the prime minister’s spokesperson told journalists at the Number 10 lobby briefing:

No one threatened to resign. The prime minister had constructive discussions with the Brexit secretary this morning.

The prime minister also met other cabinet ministers, Liam Fox, the international trade secretary, and Boris Johnson, the foreign secretary, in separate meetings, the spokesperson said.

She added that the “backstop” paper will be sent to Brussels at thesame time as it is published in London, she said.

Government sources said that today’s meeting with Davis was “conclusive”.

However, they offered no clue as to when the Brexit white paper might be published.

Updated

MPs will get proper vote on staying in customs union before summer, Leadsom signals

Andrea Leadsom, the leader of the Commons, has been giving the business statement in the Commons. Labour whips have the main points.

We learnt yesterday that the 12-hour EU withdrawal bill debate will take place on Tuesday and Wednesday, not in a marathon single session on Tuesday going past midnight.

But the announcement about the trade bill and the customs bill (or the taxation [cross-border trade] bill, to give it its proper name) is significant.

Tory MPs have tabled amendments to these bills saying the government should commit to staying in a customs union with the EU after Brexit. Today’s announcement means MPs will have a proper vote on the customs union before the summer recess.

Next week, when MPs debate the Lords amendments to the EU withdrawal bill, they will consider an amendment mentioning a customs union. But all it does is require the government to make a statement to parliament about what it’s done to negotiate a customs union. Theoretically the statement could just say: “Nothing.”

Theresa May has met David Davis in her office in parliament, which sits at the back of the speakers’ chair. Several cabinet ministers and senior Tories were also in the surrounding corridors and the discussions appeared to go on for some time.

Shortly before David Davis and the PM departed back towards Downing Street, two of Davis’ senior aides, Tim Smith and Stewart Jackson went into the room looking sombre. One senior Tory said there would be “no resignations” but said concerns about the phrasing of the time limit.

May to publish Brexit backstop plan as prospect of Davis resignation fades

Updated

The Downing Street lobby briefing is over. These are from BuzzFeed’s Emily Ashton.

Here is David Davis arriving back at his office at 9 Downing Street after meeting Theresa May in her office in the House of Commons.

David Davis (centre) arrives in Downing Street in London.
David Davis (centre) arrives in Downing Street in London. Photograph: Toby Melville/Reuters

Steve Baker, the Brexit minister, seems to be suggesting that we will get a formal announcement later today about the backstop. This is from Sky’s Lewis Goodall.

David Davis, the Brexit secretary (Baker’s boss), is down on the Commons order paper to make a written statement today on “EU Exit”. Number 10 did want to announce the backstop today, but that plan was put in doubt by yesterday’s row.

It would be preferable if politics were always clear and straightforward, but often it’s not. Different sources say different things and sometimes the person at the heart of a story doesn’t even know what will have next, because they haven’t decided. Now Laura Kuenssberg has been told by someone else we may be back in resignation territory ...

This is from ITV’s Paul Brand.

Back to David Davis. This is from my colleague Jessica Elgot.

In the Commons Karen Bradley, the Northern Ireland secretary, is responding to the urgent question triggered by today’s supreme court ruling on the Northern Ireland abortion laws.

She says no formal declaration has been made that the law is incompatible with human rights. The government will study the ruling carefully, she says.

But the analysis and the comments of the court on the incompatibility of the Northern Ireland abortion laws with human rights law will be heard loudly in this House, and in Northern Ireland, she says.

She says her priority is to get the parties in Northern Ireland to re-establish the power-sharing executive.

In response, Labour’s Stella Creasy, who tabled the urgent question, says the supreme court is saying rights are being denied to women in Northern Ireland. MPs must accept that, she says.

She says the Commons should stand up for the rights of women in Northern Ireland. She challenges Bradley to say when the domestic violence bill will come to the Commons, so that MPs can table an amendment and change the law.

The BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg has been told we’re heading into compromise territory, not resignation territory ...

Journalists tend to deploy a lot of military metaphors when writing about political disputes. But the Conservative MP Nadine Dorries, a pro-Davis Brexiter, is taking things a bit literally ...

UPDATE: ITV’s Robert Peston thinks Dorries was just using metaphor to make a point about the impact a David Davis resignation would have.

Updated

More on the Davis/May stand-off. These are from Sky’s Beth Rigby and the BBC’s Norman Smith.

Updated

There is some grim reading today for Brexiters in the pro-Brexit press.

“It’s impossible to find a leaver who thinks the whole process is going well,” the Spectator’s political editor, James Forsyth, writes in his column (paywall) in this week’s magazine. Many Guardian readers will think they spotted that some time ago. But Forsyth is very good on how the Brexiters are divided.

The Brexiteers are divided about what to do now. They can, as one of their number explained to me, be roughly split into two camps: hedgers and ditchers.

Hedgers believe the single most important thing to do is to get to 31 March, 2019, when Britain will have legally left the EU. They argue that once that has happened, the Tory party will move to replace Theresa May, giving the Brexiteers a chance to get one of their own into No. 10 and to take control of the most important Brexit department of all, the Treasury.

The hedgers argue that this new administration could then set about negotiating a trade deal with the EU. They point out that the withdrawal agreement is unlikely to go into any real detail on the future trading relationship between Britain and the EU, so a new prime minister would not have his or her hands bound too tightly. On top of this, they add that with Britain out of the EU, the Remainer resistance in the Tory ranks should ease; making it easier to win key parliamentary votes.

The ditchers argue that what’s needed now is a last-ditch effort. They vigorously dispute the hedger analysis. They plan to stiffen Theresa May’s spine and get her to commit to ‘max fac’, the Brexiteers’ preferred customs arrangement, and the ability to diverge from EU rules. They say, with some justification, that once Britain has agreed to pay the divorce bill, which it will have done by March 2019, then a large part of our leverage will have gone — and with it the chance of a good deal. They say that to rely on the Tories changing leader is a big gamble, because May has no intention of going anywhere. Those around her are convinced she can redeem herself in time for another general election campaign. The ditchers add that even if May goes, it isn’t certain that a Brexiteer would replace her. With multiple Leave candidates, the winner could again be a unity candidate, elected because they don’t have any particularly strong views on this most divisive of subjects.

And in the Daily Telegraph Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, the paper’s international business editor, reckons it’s curtains for true Brexit. This is how his column (paywall) starts.

Brexiteers, bring out your black suits of mourning. Grieve with private dignity. The quixotic bid for British independence has failed.

There will be no return to full sovereign and democratic self-rule in March 2019, or after the transition, or as far as the political eye can see. Britain will be bound and hemmed until the latent contradictions of such a colonial settlement cause a volcanic national uprising, as they surely must.

The Westminster class is edging crablike towards a double embrace of the EU single market and the customs union, the full EU package but without a veto in the European Council, or Euro-MPs with heft in the dominant blocs of Strasbourg, or judges on the European Court (ECJ) to lean against top-down “Napoleonic” jurisprudence. Both of our great parties are resiling from core manifesto pledges.

This is from MailOnline’s James Tapsfield.

Iain Dale, the broadcaster and publisher, served as David Davis’s chief of staff when Davis stood for the Conservative leadership in 2005. Yesterday he posted this on Twitter.

We’ve got two urgent questions in the Commons this morning, Labour whips report.

They also reckon the Tory Brexiters have been plotting.

This is from Sky’s Lewis Goodall.

Paul Goodman, the former Conservative MP and one-time parliamentary private secretary to David Davis who now edits ConservativeHome, has written a good column about the cabinet’s Brexit deadlock for his website. Here’s an extract.

As today’s papers confirm, Brexiteer ministers and others have come to believe that the prime minister has reneged on safeguards given to them which from their point of view might render the present negotiating position recoverable. First, they claim that she has effectively given up on time-limiting the backstop. (Quite how this could be done in any event is an interesting question.) Second, they point out that the publication of the White Paper, promised for before the European Summit later this month, has been delayed.

Third, they argue that the government has gradually crept closer to alignment than the agreement at the cabinet committee awayday at Chequers earlier this year provided for. Finally and separately, there is intense frustration with the chancellor who, they believe, has never believed that “no deal is better than a bad deal”, and has held out against giving the machinery of government the resources to ensure that we are Ready On Day 730 (that’s to say, at the end of transition), let alone on Day One.

So what are they going to do about it? If they no longer have confidence in May – to cut to the chase – will they actually quit? This site’s reckoning is that resignation is most likely in the following order among the most senior Brexiteers: David Davis, Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Liam Fox. It should not be forgotten that their fellow Cabinet members Chris Grayling, Andrea Leadsom, Esther McVey and Penny Mordaunt also backed leaving the EU.

Sky’s Beth Rigby posted this five minutes ago.

And this just now.

Supreme court dismisses bid to overturn Northern Ireland abortion laws

The supreme court has dismissed the latest attempt to overturn Northern Ireland’s restrictive abortion laws but nonetheless concluded that they are incompatible with human rights, my colleague Owen Bowcott reports.

And these are from Sarah O’Grady, an Express journalist married to Stewart Jackson, the former Tory MP who is now David Davis’s chief of staff.

Yesterday she confirmed Davis was furious about the government’s handling of Brexit. In response to this tweet ...

O’Grady posted this.

Here is the latest from journalists on Twitter about the May/Davis stand-off

This is from the Sun’s Tom Newton Dunn.

This is from Sky’s Beth Rigby.

The BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg has been speculating about a possible compromise.

Former Brexit minister says May's backstop plan 'extremely damaging' for Britain

It’s possible that David Davis, the Brexit secretary, could resign today. The ITV political editor, Robert Peston, explains here why he’s not ruling it out, and many others agree with him. The BBC is reporting this morning that Davis’s dispute with Theresa May about the Brexit backstop has still not been resolved.

Here is Pippa Crerar and Heather Stewart’s overnight story which explains very clearly what this row is all about.

This morning David Jones, the former Brexit minister and a strong support of Davis in this dispute, said that Theresa May’s plan for a backstop without a legally enforceable end date would be “extremely damaging” for Britain. Jones told the Today programme:

I think that the proposals that we’ve heard about would be extremely damaging to the country ... It would tie us effectively into the EU’s customs arrangements for an indefinite period. The government is suggesting that [the backstop] should be time limited. But it is time limited and indefinite, and of course the two don’t go together ...

If we were to find ourselves in a position whereby we were in this customs arrangements indefinitely, with only the promise that we would be leaving as soon as possible, it would probably not be acceptable.

The other thing that we have to remember is, as I understand it, Britain would not unilaterally be able, once it had signed up to this arrangement, to withdraw from it. So it would be the Hotel California scenario; we would have checked out, but we wouldn’t have left.

More often than not these Brexit crunch moments culminate in yet another fudge. Probably that’s where we’ll end up today. But we may get a resignation. We’ll see.

Here is the agenda for the day.

9am: Sir Vince Cable, the Lib Dem leader, gives a speech on the problems of modern capitalism.

9.30am: Michael Gove, the environment secretary, takes questions in the Commons.

9.30am: Sam Gyimah, the universities minister, gives a speech at the Higher Education Policy Institute conference.

9.45am: The supreme court rules in a legal challenge over the legality of Northern Ireland’s abortion laws.

Lunchtime: Theresa May chairs a meeting of the government’s key Brexit sub committee.

As usual, I will be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web. I plan to post a summary at lunchtime and another at the end of the day.

You can read all today’s Guardian politics stories here.

Here is the Politico Europe round-up of this morning’s political news from Jack Blanchard. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’ top 10 must reads.

If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

I try to monitor the comments BTL but normally I find it impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer direct questions, although sometimes I miss them or don’t have time.

If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter.

Updated

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