Afternoon summary
- Jeremy Hunt, the foreign secretary, has said the government will try to put together a European-led mission to protect shipping in the Gulf. In a Commons statement about Iran’s seizure of a British-flagged tanker, Hunt said:
Because freedom of navigation is a vital interest of every nation, we will now seek to put together a European-led maritime protection mission to support safe passage of both crew and cargo in this vital region.
We have had constructive discussions with a number of countries in the last 48 hours and will discuss later this week the best way to complement this with recent US proposals in this area.
The new force will be focused on free navigation, bearing in mind that one fifth of the world’s oil, a quarter of its liquefied natural gas – and trade worth half a trillion dollars - pass through the Strait of Hormuz every year .
It will not be part of the US maximum pressure policy on Iran because we remain committed to preserving the Iran nuclear agreement.
- Three former prime ministers, Sir John Major, Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, have all told Boris Johnson that opting for a no-deal Brexit would be unacceptable. (See 1.55pm.)
- Labour’s shadow cabinet is backing a plan to speed up the expulsion from the party of antisemites. According to the party, Jeremy Corbyn told a shadow cabinet meeting:
It is wrong to deny there is antisemitism in the Labour party. And those who deny that it does exist are part of the problem. We have to stand for a serious, anti-racist, inclusive socialism.
Labour is not an antisemitic party. But one antisemite is always one too many.
I also know that some complaints have taken too long to deal with. This is not good enough.
Our members don’t want to share their party with anyone who is racist - and they want to be able to demonstrate there is no place for antisemitism among them.
Corbyn presented the shadow cabinet with two options for speeding up the party’s complaints process. Under his preferred option the most serious of cases would be referred to a special panel consisting of the party’s general secretary and NEC officers who would have the power to expel the member - allowing for more rapid action. After the meeting the shadow cabinet issued a statement saying:
As part of tackling antisemitism, the shadow cabinet has today supported the proposal for summary exclusion outlined by the Labour leader, which he will put to the national executive committee tomorrow.
The shadow cabinet also supports the proposal to introduce independent oversight of our processes, and will continue to seek to engage with Jewish community organisations to build confidence.
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Self-styled yellow vest protester James Goddard has been handed a suspended prison sentence and been banned from an area around parliament for hurling abuse at remain-supporting MP Anna Soubry, the Press Association reports.
That’s all from me for today.
Thanks for the comments.
This is a fascinating chart. The tweet is from James Morris, a pollster who in the past has worked for Labour, but the data is from a poll published by Lord Ashcroft earlier this month (pdf). This graphic presents the information in a much clearer way than the table in the Ashcroft report (table 10).
The two most positive readings in this chart are those that show what remain-voting Labour voters feel about the Green party (they prefer it to Labour) and what leave-voting Tories feel about the Brexit party (they prefer it to the Conservative party).
Labour Remain voters pretty much as positive about the Lib Dems as Labour
— James Morris (@JamesDMorris) July 22, 2019
Labour Leave voters pretty much as positive about the Brexit party as Labour
Conditions for possible Pasokification pic.twitter.com/R28ZfzXcG2
In her first letter to party members as Lib Dem leader, Jo Swinson said:
I love this party - and honestly if you’d told me when I first joined at the age of 17 that I’d one day get the chance to write you this message, as the party’s new leader, I’d never have believed you.
The first thing I want to do is say a huge thank you to everyone who took part in this election, and especially to my good friend Ed Davey.
Over the last seven weeks Ed has shown the country what an outstanding politician he is; energetic, passionate and thoughtful. We’ve debated and challenged each other in the way the contest deserved, but always in a spirit of friendship and unity. The contrast with the Conservative party couldn’t be starker.
I also want to pay tribute to Vince Cable, whose leadership has put us in an exciting position to have a real impact on British politics.
And I want to pay tribute to all of you, who not only have challenged and tested us over the course of the contest, but whose hard work has ensured the party I’m now so proud to lead is looking at a much brighter future than many predicted just six months ago, ready to take on the challenges ahead.
The first of those is, of course, stopping Brexit. And as your new leader, it’s the task that is absolutely at the top of my agenda.
When I say Bollocks to Brexit I mean it. This isn’t a normal political issue - this is about the fundamental direction of our country for generations to Brexit, in any form, is a disaster for our country and we’ll do everything in our power to stop it.
This is from Ed Davey, congratulating Jo Swinson on beating him in the Lib Dem leadership contest.
Huge congratulations @joswinson - you will be a great leader to take our message of hope, respect and love for others across the country and build a Liberal Britain. Thanks to @vincecable for taking us to this point; thanks to my supporters and team. You’ve all been incredible. https://t.co/OFJs6YLVJO
— Ed Davey MP 🔶 (@EdwardJDavey) July 22, 2019
Here is my colleague Peter Walker’s profile of Jo Swinson.
Hunt announces plan for European-led mission to protect ships in Gulf
In the Commons Jeremy Hunt, the foreign secretary, is making a statement about the situation in the Gulf.
He says the seizure of the British-flagged Stena Impero was an act of state piracy.
He says the UK will try to put together a European-led mission to protect ships in the Gulf. He says it will not be part of the US maximum pressure policy on Iran, because the UK remains committed to the Iran nuclear deal.
He says British-flagged ships will be asked to advise the government on when they are planning to sail through the Strait of Hormuz, so that they can be offered assistance.
He says Iran may end up with an increased foreign naval presence on its doorstep. But if that happens, Iran only has itself to blame, he says.
Lib Dem election results in full
Here are the Lib Dem election results in full.
Some 106,075 ballot papers were issued, and 76,429 were returned, giving a turnout of 72 per cent.
Ed Davey: 28,021 (37%)
Jo Swinson: 47,997 (63%)
Swinson says this is a time for working together.
And she says she has a message for MPs in other parties: if you want to stop Brexit and Corbyn, work with the Lib Dems. My door is always open, she says.
And she says she has a message for people at home. If you want change, it is not enough to shout at the TV. Join us, she says.
She winds up saying we should change politics so we can change the country.
'Britain deserves better than Boris Johnson', says Jo Swinson, claiming she's candidate to be PM
Jo Swinson is still giving her victory speech.
She says in 2017 she knew she had to stand in East Dunbartonshire again to try to win back her seat.
The 2017 campaign was ugly, she says. But she says she had seen this already in the 2014 Scottish independence referendum. That campaign was marked by Twitter trolls and rows about fake news.
She says she felt sick in 2016 when Nigel Farage said leave won without a shot being filed. Just a week before Jo Cox had been murdered. But Farage did not seem to care, she says.
She says the Lib Dems champion freedom. But Brexit means the next generation will be less free to work, live and love across Europe.
She talks about a rise in the number of hate crimes, and Islamophobia and antisemitism at the heart of politics. And she condemns President Trump. Ilhan Omar is a strong woman, she says. But because of what Trump says migrant women feel less safe.
Turning to Boris Johnson, she says he only cares about himself. Ask Kim Darroch. “Britain deserves better than Boris Johnson,” she says.
And, on Labour, she says any party that cannot decide on the biggest issue of our time does not deserve her time or her vote.
Swinson says she stands her today not just as Lib Dem leader, but as a candidate for PM.
She says there is no limit to her ambition. She is ready to take her party into a general election and win it, she says.
Here is my colleague Peter Walker’s story on Jo Swinson’s election.
Swinson says, when she decided to stand, she thought the challenge would be different. The Lib Dems were only on around 8% in the poll. New parties (ie Change UK) were after their vote.
But now there has been a turnaround, she says. She says Liberal Democrats are winning again.
She pays tribute to her two predecessors: to Tim Farron for saying after the referendum that the Lib Dems would be the party of remain, and to Sir Vince Cable for overseeing a transformation in the party’s fortunes.
New Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson says liberalism is alive and thriving
Jo Swinson is speaking now.
She says she is “over the moon” to be elected leader.
The Liberal Democrats are like a family to her, she says.
She says liberalism is alive and thriving. And she will do whatever she can to stop Brexit, she says.
She says the Lib Dems will lead the revive the country needs.
She thanks her husband, the former Lib Dem MP Duncan Hames, and her mum, and says her two young children have brought her pure joy.
And she thanks Sir Ed Davey. She says he has carried himself in the campaign with grace. She has huge respect for him, and they agree on most things, she says. She says this did not make for an interesting contest. She is proud to call him a friend, and he will be central to her team, she says.
Jo Swinson elected Lib Dem leader with big majority over Ed Davey
Brinton reads out the results
Ed Davey: 28,021
Jo Swinson: 47,XXX
(We could not hear the rest of Swinson’s tally because there was so much cheering.)
Updated
She says Cable has campaigned tirelessly for the Lib Dems’ recovery.
The Lib Dems won more than 700 council seats this year, and the party is now running at about 20% in the polls.
She says the Lib Dem leadership contest has been unlike the Tories’. Ed Davey and Jo Swinson have fought a courteous campaign, and they have respected each other.
They have shown that there is a different way of doing politics.
The message from members has been how hard it has been to decide, because both are exceptional candidates, she says.
Sal Brinton, the Lib Dem president, is making the announcement.
She pays tribute to Sir Vince Cable, the outgoing leader.
Lib Dem leadership election announcement
We’re about to get the announcement.
In the House of Lords peers have just voted to keep the amendment to the Northern Ireland (executive formation) bill passed by MPs last week intended to stop a new prime minister proroguing parliament to stop the Commons blocking a no-deal Brexit.
BREAKING: Govt defeat as Peers vote 260-146 to back Commons bosltering of Lords amendt on #NIExecutiveBill to stop new Prime Minister proroguing #Parliament on a whim
— LabourLordsUK (@LabourLordsUK) July 22, 2019
Oppn Maj 114
The result of the Lib Dem leadership contest will be announced soon.
At the announcement of the new @LibDems leader. Result at 4pm. @joswinson or @EdwardJDavey? pic.twitter.com/moNVooaCV2
— Daniel Hewitt (@DanielHewittITV) July 22, 2019
Alan Duncan claims he wanted effective confidence vote in Johnson to avoid 'constitutional crisis'
BBC News has just broadcast Laura Kuenssberg’s interview with Sir Alan Duncan. Here are the main points.
- Sir Alan Duncan, the former Foreign Office minister, said he wanted the Commons to hold an effective confidence vote in Boris Johnson tomorrow to avoid a constitutional crisis. Some people may suspect that Duncan, a longstanding critic of Johnson’s was trying to bring him down before the Queen even had a chance to appoint him as PM on Wednesday afternoon. But Duncan put a more positive gloss on what he was doing. He said that this be the first time in living memory where a minority government changes PM mid-term and he said that, to avoid a “constitutional crisis”, he thought it was important to establish that Johnson had the confidence of the Commons. Speaking to Sky, Duncan said he would have voted to back Johnson. (See 3.40pm.)
- Duncan said he did not know why John Bercow, the Speaker, turned down his application for a debate.
- He cast doubt on Johnson’s ability to be a good PM, while claiming he was not motivated by animosity. Asked about his views of Johnson, he replied:
When I was his deputy I was totally loyal. We never had an argument. I never bad mouthed him. So I’ve served both foreign secretaries. And I’ve no doubt which of the two is the more capable and more competent. So I have very grave concerns that he flies by the seat of his pants, and it’s all a bit haphazard and ramshackle. But there’s no personal animosity of any sort. I just think he’s going to go smack into a crisis of government.
When asked if he thought Johnson was fit to be PM, Duncan replied:
I will never say that he’s unfit to be prime minister.
Duncan also claimed he wanted Johnson to succeed.
I’m a Conservative, I’m a patriot. I want him to succeed. My judgment says that it is going to be very, very difficult.
Duncan refuses to rule out voting against Johnson in a no confidence motion to stop no-deal Brexit
Sky’s Beth Rigby has also been speaking to Sir Alan Duncan.
Just interviewed Sir Alan too: he says he wanted to have an emergency vote to prove the House had confidence in the new PM and he would have been supportive. But also says Johnson administration is already on knife edge. More on @SkyNews imminently https://t.co/83usCpUcEC
— Beth Rigby (@BethRigby) July 22, 2019
I also asked Sir Alan if he would vote against a Johnson govt should he pursue a no deal exit. He said he’d never answer a Q like this but warns that Johnson would be foolish to follow this course
— Beth Rigby (@BethRigby) July 22, 2019
- Sir Alan Duncan refuses to rule out voting against Boris Johnson in a no confidence motion to stop a no-deal Brexit.
Sir Alan: Why resigning now? “I wanted to do it in a polite way but with the ability some nice things about the PM and FCO. Given there might be a little bit of a rush in the middle of week I thought I’d do it before”
— Beth Rigby (@BethRigby) July 22, 2019
Sir Alan on the emergency debate. We’re on the edge of a difficult constitutional moment. PM changing mid-term when minority govt. It should be tested to see if the PM has a majority before the new PM goes to the palace.
— Beth Rigby (@BethRigby) July 22, 2019
Sir Alan: “It was a confidence vote in [Johnson]. I would have voted for him but I think there is doubt so in my view it is very important to get it launched in confidence rather than live with doubt.”
— Beth Rigby (@BethRigby) July 22, 2019
Sir Alan says he thinks Johnson would have won that confidence vote. But now it is launched in doubt: “I think he will be living on a knife edge”
— Beth Rigby (@BethRigby) July 22, 2019
What was Alan Duncan trying to achieve?
A few words of explanation about the Alan Duncan story.
Sir Alan Duncan did not try to table a formal motion of no confidence in Boris Johnson. There seem to have been two reasons for this. First, Duncan was pushing for a vote tomorrow - after Johnson’s probable election as Tory leader, but before he gets appointed prime minister (which is due to happen on Wednesday afternoon). And, much more importantly, only the leader of the opposition can table a no confidence motion in the government that has to be debated. (Other MPs can table no confidence motions, but they just get printed as early day motions and then ignored.)
Instead, Duncan tried to use standing order 24 to hold an emergency debate on a motion that would have effectively amounted to a confidence vote in Johnson.
SO24 allows MPs to call for emergency debates on topical issues, normally held on the day an MP applies, and lasting for up to three hours.
But for an SO24 debate to happen, the Speaker has to allow the MP to apply, by making a very short speech in the Commons chamber, and the Speaker then decides whether it should go ahead. John Bercow has blocked this bid at the first hurdle; he is not even allowing Duncan to make his application in the chamber.
Updated
Alan Duncan claims Speaker has blocked attempt to hold vote on whether Boris Johnson has confidence of MPs
These are from the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg.
1. This is rather extraordinary - Sir Alan Duncan tells @bbcnews he quit govt so he could push for an emergency vote tomorrow, after the next PM is announced, to test if they can hold a majority
— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) July 22, 2019
2. Duncan makes plain he has held doubts about Johnson's character for a long time, but angrily dismisses suggestions idea of holding a vote on a hypothetical Johnson govt before it's formed was personal - he says it was the way to avoid a much worse crisis in autumn
— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) July 22, 2019
3. Sir Alan astonished that Bercow has turned his request down, and fears much bigger meltdown after recess when next PM can't hold a majority in the Commons - his critics may reckon he was trying to kill off a Johnson govt before he's even gone to the Palace
— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) July 22, 2019
Here’s the motion Duncan wanted a vote on... pic.twitter.com/n1SyeVZtbC
— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) July 22, 2019
More than 750 people may have missed out on their right to vote because of pilot schemes requiring them to prove their identity, the Press Association reports. Pilot schemes in 10 council areas for the local elections in England left “important questions” unanswered, the Electoral Commission said. Labour claimed the voter ID trials were evidence of a “blatant attempt by the Tories to rig the result of future elections” and called for the programme to be abandoned. But the government insisted the schemes revealed requiring voters to show ID was a “reasonable and proportionate measure” to tackle electoral fraud. The 10 trial areas in May’s elections were Braintree, Broxtowe, Craven, Derby, Mid-Sussex, North Kesteven, North West Leicestershire, Pendle, Watford and Woking.
A review published by the Electoral Commission found up to 2,083 voters were initially refused a ballot paper because they lacked the required ID, and up to 758 of them did not return to cast their vote. Out of all those who went to their polling station in the pilots, the proportion who could not show ID and who did not return to vote ranged from 0.03% to 0.7%.
The Cabinet Office also published its own review, saying the “overwhelming majority” of people were able to cast their vote despite the voter ID rules being piloted.
Charlie Elphicke has been suspended from the Conservative whip, party sources have said, following the news that he has been charged with three counts of sexual assault. His solicitor has said he is confident he will clear his name.
Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that if, as expected, he becomes prime minister on Wednesday, the UK will definitely leave the EU by 31 October. But a majority of voters, and even 50% of leave voters, do not believe that will happen, a YouGov poll has found.
Here are a couple of comments from below the line on Boris Johnson’s Brexit/moon landings analogy. (See 9.32am.)
It took years of planning and thousands of "Experts" to land on the moon. There were also many deaths and serious accidents on the way and, having got there, it's quite telling that there was very little interest in going back. After all, why waste hundreds of billions of pounds going to a barren, remote wasteland in the void of space for no good reason ... sums up the futility of Brexit rather well actually.
This is from Conor Burns, a Tory MP supporting Boris Johnson’s leadership campaign.
How come the PM doesn't refer to him as Deputy Foreign Secretary?!
— Conor Burns MP (@ConorBurnsUK) July 22, 2019
It is a joke about how Alan Duncan was happy to be known as the deputy foreign secretary, even though this was not a proper title (there is no such position) but just a term used by the media occasionally to refer to Duncan.
This is from Geoff Barton, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, which represents mainly secondary school head teachers, on the 2.75% pay rise for teachers. (See 1.25pm.)
Our reading of the government’s statement is that the first 2% of the award will have to come from existing school budgets which are already under intense pressure and cannot sustain more unfunded costs.
It is inevitable that this will result in more cutbacks, and while schools will do their best to implement the increase, we would not be surprised if some are unable to do so.
The fact that this announcement has been made so late is not at all helpful for schools as they have had no time to factor these costs into next year’s budgets.
Here is Theresa May’s reply to Alan Duncan following his resignation. (See 10.43am.)
The fourth former prime minister alive today is David Cameron. He probably feels the say way Sir John Major, Tony Blair and Gordon Brown do about a no-deal Brexit (see 1.55pm), but he been reluctant to say anything of substance about the government’s handling of Brexit since he left Number 10 three years ago. He is probably saving up his thoughts for his memoirs, which are out in the autumn.
John Major tells Boris Johnson he won't be proper PM if he just represents 'ultra-Brexit faction'
There are four former prime ministers still alive. (Theresa May probably already feels like a former prime minister, but she does not join the club until Wednesday). Today three of them have spoken out against a no-deal Brexit: Tony Blair, in an article in the Times (paywall) and on the Today programme (see 9.32am); Gordon Brown in a speech this morning (see 11.36am); and now Sir John Major. Major has just issued this statement.
It is a timely moment to note that whoever becomes our prime minister this week, he will be far more than Leader of the Conservative party.
As for every prime minister, he must act for our nation as a whole – not just one part of it. He must also remember that no-one born this century voted for Brexit – let alone a “no-deal” Brexit.
Words and actions have consequences, and never more so than when they are those of the prime minister. As the evidence mounts of the probable economic and social damage of a “no-deal” Brexit – and of the rising opposition to it – the new prime minister must choose whether to be the spokesman for an ultra-Brexit faction, or the servant of the nation he leads. He cannot be both, and the choice he makes will define his premiership from the moment of its birth.
As the most powerful politician in the four nations of our United Kingdom, any prime minister has the right to expect support but – if he acts as the spokesman for one hard-line faction only – he cannot complain if he faces uncompromising opposition from those who believe they have had their views ignored.
I hope our new leader understands this, and is fully prepared for the enormity of the task before him.
- Boris Johnson must choose whether he wants to serve the nation, or just “an ultra-Brexit faction”, says Sir John Major. As PM he can’t do both, says Major.
- Major says Johnson will face “uncompromising opposition” if he just represents Brexiters as PM.
Public sector pay awards - Details
Here are links to the written ministerial statements out today with details of the public sector pay awards, with extracts.
Last year, the government announced the largest pay rise in nearly a decade for almost a million public sector workers. Building on this, this year I have decided to accept in full the STRB’s recommendations for a 2.75% uplift to the minima and maxima of all pay ranges and allowances.
The pay award will both raise starting salaries and increase the competitiveness of the pay framework. As a result, minimum starting salaries for classroom teachers will see an increase between £652 (Rest of England) and £816 (Inner London), and classroom teachers at the top of the main pay range could see an increase between £963 and £1,110. For more experienced classroom teachers at the top of the upper pay range, it could mean an increase of between £1,084 and £1,327.
As a result, the pay ranges for all teachers and leaders will see an uplift. Thanks to the flexible performance-based pay system we have, schools can choose to give teachers and leaders a higher pay rise where this is appropriate to their local context and budget.
This pay rise represents one of the biggest uplifts in pay for medical staff for over a decade. In addition to their pay, medical staff continue to benefit from defined benefit pensions, which are amongst the most generous available.
Today’s pay award is worth:
Between £1,940 and £2,630 for consultants
Between £970 and £1,820 for specialty doctors
Between £1,360 and £2,250 for associate specialists
Last year, the government announced the largest pay rise in nearly a decade for almost a million public sector workers. Building on this, this year the government has accepted in full the recommendations of the PRRB that a consolidated increase of 2.5% should be awarded to all ranks at all pay points. It has also accepted a corresponding increase to London weighting and the dog handlers’ allowance and an increase in the on-call allowance for officers in the federated ranks from £15 to £20 for each 24-hour period on-call. These will be implemented with effect from 1 September 2019.
Last year, the government announced the largest pay rise in nearly a decade for almost a million public sector workers. Today we are building on that with a pay award that is worth at least 2.2% for all prison staff and 3% for our Band 3 officers on the ‘Fair and Sustainable’ terms and conditions. This is the second year in a row we have put in place awards over 2% for our prison staff and this year’s settlement represents the highest consolidated increase for over 10 years.
In addition to the headline increases we will also implement the totality of the other Review Body recommendations. This represents a full package for staff that will support us to recruit and retain prison officers and managers, contributing to safer prisons and reduced reoffending. In addition to their pay, prison officers continue to benefit from defined benefit pensions, which are amongst the most generous available.
For a Band 3 officer on the modern terms and conditions the pay settlement is worth on average £1,277.
Last year, the government announced the largest pay rise in nearly a decade for almost a million public sector workers. This year’s award builds on this and focuses attention on increasing pay for the most junior sailors, soldiers, and airmen and women, to ensure that they continue to receive a living wage. Consequently, the basic pay for other ranks on completion of their initial training will now be £20,000. This pay rise of over 6% represents an increase of £1,140 for over 7,200 newly trained sailors, soldiers, and airmen and airwomen.
The pay award also represents an annual increase of £995 in the nominal ‘average’ salary in the armed forces (which is at the corporal level), as well as an annual increase of £769 in starting salary for an officer.
SSRB recommendations set a 2.2% pay award with money allocated in the following priority order:
0.9% targeted at pay progression and anomalies
0.2% set aside for minima increases
1% increase for all SCS not benefiting from the minima increases, and those benefiting by less than 1% from the minima increases should be ‘topped up’ to a 1% increase (estimated cost of 0.9% of the paybill)
0.2% set aside to implement any specialist pay proposals.
The SSRB also recommended reductions to the maxima and commented on priority work to be undertaken for the 2020-21 pay award.
The government accepts the SSRB’s recommendations in full with the following exceptions:
The overall figure should be limited to an average 2% increase in line with the figure contained in the delegated pay remit guidance. The reduction of 0.2% will be taken from the money set aside for specialist pay which we will not be implementing this pay year.
The government accepts the recommendation to decrease the maxima for all pay bands, but to delay implementation of this to next year whilst further work is undertaken on capability-based pay progression to ensure the levels set are robust and there is a clear and positive narrative for reduction.
Almost 1m public sector workers to get above-inflation pay rises, says Treasury
There are 30 written ministerial statements coming today, including quite a few relating to public sector pay. You can read them as they come out here.
In a press notice, the Treasury says almost a million public sector workers are getting above-inflation pay increases. It says:
Each workforce is different and reaches its own settlement with the government. All six deals finalised today hand pay rises higher than the current 2% rate of inflation (CPI June 2019, ONS) for the 2019/20 financial year.
The pay rises will be backdated to the start of each work force’s financial year and mean a rise of 2.75% for school teachers, 2.5% for consultants and dentists, 2.5% for police officers, 2.9% per cent for personnel in the armed forces, at least 2.2% for prison officers and 2% for senior civil servants and senior military staff.
Pay for most public sector workers also rose above inflation last year after the government ended the across-the-board 1% pay rise cap in September 2017. Earnings growth for public sector workers reached 3.6% last year.
Updated
Here is the Tory MP Ben Bradley on Alan Duncan’s resignation.
Oh no. I'm devastated. 😭 Cried a river. He was such a... a...
— Ben Bradley MP (@bbradleymp) July 22, 2019
Anyway, what's for lunch?#tinyviolin 🎻 https://t.co/Mrpu8oGuzu
Charlie Elphicke’s solicitor has issued a statement saying Elphicke is confident he will clear his name, Sky’s Beth Rigby reports.
NEW: Elphicke statement. Denies “sex assault” charges and retains full support of constituency chairman pic.twitter.com/leHUiJEwCt
— Beth Rigby (@BethRigby) July 22, 2019
Theresa May, senior ministers and security chiefs have met to discuss the UK’s response to the Gulf crisis following the seizure of a British-flagged tanker by Iran, the Press Association reports.Downing Street has been hit by claims that the government “dropped the ball” by failing to prepare for Tehran’s actions against British shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The prime minister was chairing a meeting of the government’s emergency committee Cobra to consider how to react to the capture of the Stena Impero on Friday. Officials said the meeting would consider the options for “strengthening current reassurances” to commercial shipping as well as the response to Tehran.
The prime minister’s spokesman told journalists:
We do not seek confrontation with Iran but it is unacceptable and highly escalatory to seize a ship going about legitimate business through internationally recognised shipping lanes.
The spokesman said the ship was seized under “false and illegal pretences and the Iranians should release it and its crew immediately”. As the Press Association reports, military experts have warned that cuts to the Royal Navy had left it over-stretched, with too few warships to protect British interests. The prime minister’s spokesman said:
The high volume of ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz - up to 30 ships covering more than 100 nautical miles - makes it impossible to escort vessels individually.
We already work closely with international partners to ensure a co-ordinated effort to defend freedom of navigation, this includes sharing information on threats to shipping and offering mutual protection for each other’s vessels.
Downing Street said there had not been a US offer to escort all UK ships in the region. But the spokesman said:
The US has been discussing with a number of countries, including the UK, how we might deliver maritime security in the face of recent threats to shipping.
Jeremy Hunt, the foreign secretary, will update MPs later on the situation.
Tory MP Charlie Elphicke charged with three counts of sexual assault
This is from the Press Association.
Charlie Elphicke, the Conservative MP for Dover, has been charged with three counts of sexual assault against two women, the Crown Prosecution Service said.
Elphicke was suspended from the Conservative party for just over a year after allegations of sexual offences were made against him, but he had his suspension lifted so that he could take part in the no confidence vote in Theresa May in December. He has strongly denied any criminal wrongdoing.
Polling shows millions of Brexit voters do not support no-deal, says Gordon Brown
Gordon Brown, the former Labour prime minister, has been speaking at an event this morning organised by the IPPR thinktank and Hope not Hate, which campaigns against fascism and the far-right. Here are the main points, based on the text of the speech sent out in advance.
- Brown says most voters oppose a no-deal Brexit, with millions of leave supporters saying it would be bad for Britain. He is referring to some polling released by Hope not Hate today which shows that, by a margin of more than two to one, people are more likely to think leaving the EU without a deal will be bad for Britain than good for Britain. Brown says:
Elected by a smaller electorate than voted for Ed Balls on Strictly Come Dancing, [Boris Johnson] will have to come face to face with a very hard truth [if he becomes PM on Wednesday]: Millions of Brexit voters do not support a no-deal Brexit.
According to the poll by Hope Not Hate, who are, to their credit, launching this community No To No-Deal campaign today, three million of those who voted leave in 2016 say that exiting the EU without a deal would be bad for Britain.
While the Conservative party has been talking to itself, Johnson’s ’do or die’ plan to leave on October 31 with or without a deal is losing support.
Perhaps the most revealing figure of all is that 40 per cent of Labour Brexit voters have been changing their minds.
And I believe dissent about Brexit will grow as people find what a no-deal really means.
- He says a no-deal Brexit would be a betrayal of what people were promised in the Brexit referendum and in the 2017 Tory election manifesto. He says:
In the run-up to the referendum the official Vote Leave campaign ruled out a no-deal Brexit, one of their publications stating: ‘Taking back control is a careful change, not a sudden stop. We will negotiate the terms of a new deal before we start any legal process to leave’.
Another briefing paper stressed that if the country voted to leave, it would be on the basis of ‘a new UK-EU treaty based on free trade and friendly co-operation’.
And although Mr Johnson now insists on a hard deadline of Halloween, Vote Leave argued at the time of the referendum that ‘our guiding principle should be ‘safety first and flexibility’. Is a no-deal safety first?
Nor were the voters asked to sign up to a no-deal Brexit even as a last resort at the 2017 general election. The Tory manifesto promised ‘the best possible deal for Britain as we leave the European Union delivered by a smooth, orderly Brexit’.
Smooth and orderly? A phrase that rings as hollow as Mrs May’s promise of a government that would be ‘strong and stable’.
- He says a no-deal Brexit would be unprecedented as a “peacetime act of self-harm”.
When future historians look back, they will be shocked to discover how such an act of economic self-harm that runs wholly counter to the national interest could ever be portrayed by Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson as the height of patriotism and criticism from any quarter be dismissed as a betrayal of Britain and all we stand for.
Even if some of the immediate chaos forecast by officials is averted on the day, the long-term economic impact of no-deal Brexit is where the calamity lies. British history includes self-inflicted wounds – military disasters such as the Charge of the Light Brigade and the fiasco of Gallipoli – but no peacetime act of self-harm can rival a no-deal Brexit for which we are so woefully unprepared and from which even now the new European Commission president is offering to deliver us – and we are refusing the help.
- He says the risk of a no-deal Brexit to the union means Johnson could be “fated to be remembered not as the 55th prime minister of the UK but as the first prime minister of England”.
.@OfficeGSBrown: 'I fear for the cohesion or our community and country.' Gordon Brown on the impact #Brexit has had in Britian pic.twitter.com/tpIG8hyvMk
— HOPE not hate (@hopenothate) July 22, 2019
Updated
Alan Duncan says UK could have been dominant political force in Europe if it had not been for Brexit
And here is an extract from Sir Alan Duncan’s resignation letter. He voted remain in the referendum.
The UK does so much good in the world. It is tragic that just when we could have been the dominant intellectual and political force throughout Europe, and beyond, we have had to spend every day working beneath the dark cloud of Brexit.
On a heartfelt personal note, I have known you and Philip for over 40 years, throughout which you have both displayed faultless dignity and an unstinting sense of duty. I am only sorry that your three years as prime minister have been brought to an end. You deserved better, but please take lasting comfort from the knowledge that your self-esteem can, and will forever, far exceed that of your critics.
(Duncan may not have phrased that final sentence quite as intended. Boris Johnson’s self-esteem probably far exceeds Theresa May’s. Duncan seems to have been saying that the esteem in which she is held by others is higher.)
Here is Sir Alan Duncan’s resignation letter.
I resigned as Foreign Office minister this morning. Here is my letter to the Prime Minister. pic.twitter.com/1kpt7rHsF0
— Sir Alan Duncan MP (@AlanDuncanMP) July 22, 2019
My colleague Heather Stewart says Boris Johnson now seems be beset by “rolling resignations” - a tactic that was used against Jeremy Corbyn.
Johnson suffering rolling resignations before he’s even made it to Downing Street: natural party of government sure not looking like it right now.
— Heather Stewart (@GuardianHeather) July 22, 2019
Note to Tories: the “rolling resignations” directed at Corbyn by Labour front benchers did not achieve much in the end; three years on, he’s still there.
This is from my colleague Patrick Wintour on Alan Duncan’s resignation.
Alan Duncan foreign office minister who quit today is currently responsible for Americas, Europe and Asia. In Asia he was substituting for Mark Field who is suspended due to his alleged assault on a protestor. All rectifiable on Weds, but a picture of chaos at time of crisis.
— Patrick Wintour (@patrickwintour) July 22, 2019
Senior Tory criticises ministers announcing their resignation now to avoid being sacked by Boris Johnson
Greg Hands, the former international trade minister, has criticised Sir Alan Duncan, Philip Hammond and David Gauke for announcing pre-emptive resignations. (See 9.48am.) He claims they are damaging the party.
In my view, pre-emptive ministerial resignations (If reports are true) in case your own democratically-elected Party Leader is not to your liking are absurd. And I say that as a committed @Jeremy_Hunt supporter. Such moves make a Corbyn Government one step more likely.
— Greg Hands (@GregHands) July 22, 2019
Updated
Alan Duncan quits as Foreign Office minister to avoid serving under Boris Johnson
Sir Alan Duncan, the Foreign Office minister, has resigned today because he is not willing to serve under Boris Johnson, the Times’ Steven Swinford reports. Number 10 has confirmed that Duncan has indeed gone.
Sir Alan Duncan has quit as a foreign minister
— Steven Swinford (@Steven_Swinford) July 22, 2019
He handed in his resignation letter this morning
He's made clear he can't serve under a Boris Johnson premiership
That is not especially surprising. Duncan has been fiercely critical of Johnson in public, including recently accusing Johnson of “contemptible negligence” for his failure to back Sir Kim Darroch, at the time the US ambassador to Washington, in the face of attacks from President Trump. If Duncan was not resigning, he would almost certainly be sacked later this week.
But what is unusual is the way Duncan, along with the cabinet ministers Philip Hammond and David Gauke, have decided to resign pre-emptively rather than let Johnson dismiss them. This is unusual, and illustrates quite how strong the opposition to Johnson is in some parts of the parliamentary Conservative party.
Updated
Tony Blair ridicules Boris Johnson's claim moon landing-style 'can-do spirit' can solve Brexit
Unless everything we know about the Conservative party turns out to be wrong, there are only about 60 hours to go before Boris Johnson becomes prime minister, and he has used what will probably be his final column in the Daily Telegraph (paywall) to reveal his long-awaited solution to Brexit, and in particular the Irish backstop problem. Johnson has been watching the TV over the weekend and he has decided that, if humans can land a man on the moon, they can construct a mechanism for allowing frictionless trade at the Ireland/Northern Ireland border without the UK having to be in the the customs union.
Here’s an extract from his column.
Think of that achievement [the moon landing], and then think of the current debate about actually leaving the EU – which has been going on for so long that we are in danger of believing that we are incapable of finding our way out; like someone who has lost their car in a vast multi-storey car park, and is beginning to despair of ever leaving at all.
At its core, the problem with leaving the EU is technical and logistical. In order to come out of the EU customs union, and to maintain frictionless trade across the border in Northern Ireland (and indeed at Calais and elsewhere) we will need ways of checking goods for rules of origin, and whether they conform to the right standards, and whether or not they have been smuggled – but we have to do it away from the border, because no one can accept border controls in Northern Ireland.
And I am afraid that there are technological pessimists – some of them apparently in London – who seem genuinely to think that such technical solutions are impossible, that they are a kind of logical contradiction, a mythological species that we will never see in this universe. Are they right? Of course not. There is abundant scope to find the solutions necessary – and they can and will be found, in the context of the Free Trade Agreement that we will negotiate with the EU (and this is common to both candidates in the current leadership contest) after we have left on October 31.
It is absurd that we have even allowed ourselves to be momentarily delayed by these technical issues. If they could use hand-knitted computer code to make a frictionless re-entry to Earth’s atmosphere in 1969, we can solve the problem of frictionless trade at the Northern Irish border ...
It is time this country recovered some its can-do spirit. We can come out of the EU on October 31, and yes, we certainly have the technology to do so. What we need now is the will and the drive.
In the past, in response to a complaint about an inaccuracy about Brexit in one of Johnson’s columns, the Daily Telegraph told the Independent Press Standards Organisation that the column in question was “clearly comically polemical, and could not be reasonably read as a serious, empirical, in-depth analysis of hard factual matters.” That does not seem to be the paper’s take on this article, although one can never be entirely sure.
But the objections to Johnson’s argument are numerous, including: 1) This is what people say about almost any insuperable problem, normally ones that never do get solved (like abolishing poverty); 2) Putting a man on the moon took the Americans the best part of a decade, while Johnson is committed to delivering Brexit in just 100 days; 3) If it were that easy, the UK and the EU would probably have found a solution within the last three years; 4) There is no example in the world of an entirely frictionless border between two countries with different customs arrangements; and 5) the Americans never had to worry about smuggling being a problem, or sanitary and phytosanitary regulations, or lunar paramilitaries, when they established their own border crossing on the surface of the moon.
On the Today programme this Tony Blair, the Labour former prime minister, came up with another specific objection, as well as dismissing Johnson’s entire stance. He said:
It’s a very Boris Johnson approach to thing which is to say ‘Look, never mind the detail, but if we only believe in ourselves, we can do it’. I found the article this morning - it’s one of these things where essentially he was saying was, look, the Americans put a man on the moon, and therefore surely we can find a way round the Irish border problem. To which the obvious response of the Europeans will be, ‘Well, if it’s that simple, why are you opposed to the backstop?’ But in any event the two things are obviously rather technically different.
Here is the agenda for the day.
9.30am: The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) publishes its latest economic forecast for the economy.
11am: Gordon Brown, the former Labour prime minister, gives a speech on Brexit. As he writes in a Guardian article, he is urging MPs to reject no-deal as an option.
2pm: Sajid Javid, the home secretary, gives evidence to the Commons home affairs committee.
After 3.30pm: Jeremy Hunt, the foreign secretary, is expected to make a statement in the Commons on Iran’s seizure of a British-flagged tanker.
4pm: The Liberal Democrats announce the winner of their leadership contest.
And at some point Jeremy Corbyn will chair a shadow cabinet meeting devoted to the subject of how Labour should address its antisemitism problem.
As usual, I will be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web. I plan to publish a summary when I wrap up.
You can read all the latest Guardian politics articles here. Here is the Politico Europe roundup of this morning’s political news. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must-reads.
If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.
I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone.
If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter.
UPDATE: Brutha in the comments says I was wrong in what I said about the moon landings and sanitary and phytosanitary regulations. It just goes to show, you learn something new every day. There is more about the astronauts spending time in quarantine when they returned here.
the Americans never had to worry about........ or sanitary and phytosanitary regulations
The astronauts were put in quarantine for 21 days on return in case they bought moon bugs back with them.
Updated
There are clear parallels with the Apollo missions.
They cost the USA about 4% of GDP, which is likely to be the cost of Brexit.
Unlike the Apollo missions, though, this is a cumulative loss, with no benefits and at a cost of the LOSS of international prestige.