The influential foreign players wield in Syria is taking shape in agreements and intense contacts to secure their interests in the country.
A series of negotiations have been held between the Russian and Israeli militaries over the de-escalation zone in the southwest and how to keep Iran away from Israel’s border.
In the northwest, the Turkish army began deploying military patrols in the Manbij countryside near areas held by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) as part of a roadmap reached with the United States on June 4.
Tens of kilometers away, Turkish forces and Syrian opposition factions are preparing to enter Tall Rifaat city to replace Syrian regime forces and Iranian militias in line with a Turkish-Russian agreement.
Amid these negotiations, a mysterious air strike targeted the Iraqi Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces in the Deir Ezzour region on Monday. No one has claimed responsibility for the attack, with regime fingers pointed at Israel, which normally does not comment on such strikes.
Negotiations, reinforcements and raidsIn the southwest, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported air raids on an opposition held region in Daraa ahead of an impending regime offensive. The retaliation came on Tuesday when opposition groups shelled the Sweida region for the first time since 2015. The US had earlier this week expressed its concern over the regime’s imminent offensive in the southwest in an area that is within a de-escalation zone, warning that it will take the appropriate response against the violations there.
These warnings and regime reinforcements coincided with talks between Israel and Russia over southern Syria, revealed information obtained by Asharq Al-Awsat. They focused on the withdrawal of “Hezbollah” and Iran-backed militias to between 20 and 25 kilometers from the disengagement line in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Regime forces would be deployed in their place along with Russian military police patrols. Some 12,000 opposition members and their families would be relocated to Idlib.
Israel, however, demanded in the latest talks with Russia for Iran to withdraw 80 kms from the Golan, meaning beyond Damascus. Israel also demanded that it have free rein, without any Russian objection, to strike any side that violates this deal.
Base or withdrawal?In the north, the American military reinforced its presence in the Tabaqa airport in SDF-controlled regions. The facility is one of the most important military airports in Syria and the international coalition combating ISIS had sought to seize control of it before the regime or Russia could lay their hands on it.
The reinforcements contradicted US President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw American troops from northern Syria. Military commanders and his allies in Europe and the Middle East convinced him to postpone this move. American presence in Syria is now linked to completely eliminating ISIS, reducing Iran’s influence and achieving peace based on the Geneva talks.
The recent deal on Manbij between Washington and Ankara and the control by Turkey-backed Syrian opposition factions of Afrin has prompted the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) to postpone its battle to eliminate ISIS from the Syrian-Iraqi border, despite the advances it made over the past two days.
Given Trump’s wavering over the withdrawal from Syria, developments on the ground may push the SDF towards striking a deal with the regime. Threats from Damascus, mysterious assassinations east of the Euphrates River and the emergence of regime- and Tehran-backed anti-US armed groups have prompted the SDF and its political wing to adopt a more open approach towards the regime. It may opt for negotiations to reach political, military and economic deals with the regime that would secure Kurdish rights.
Deals and disappointmentAlso in the north, the pro-Iranian Revolutionary Guards Tasnim news agency spoke of an “unprecedented” agreement that would call for handing Tall Rifaat city to Turkey. This marks the beginning of a new phase of cooperation between Ankara and Moscow, it added. The agreement would call for Turkish forces to officially enter the town and manage its affairs. Currently, the city is controlled by the pro-regime forces. Tasnim said that Russia vowed to remove Iranian and pro-regime forces from Tall Rifaat to replace them with members of the Free Syrian Army.
The Russian military had previously set up a center for itself in Tall Rifaat, in a repeat of other deals that have been struck between Ankara and Moscow, such as the one over Afrin. Notably, the Tall Rifaat deal was disclosed shortly after Turkey and the US reached their Manbij roadmap.
Glaring from all these international moves, is the absence of the Syrians themselves, whether the regime or opposition, in determining their own fate. These developments have been taking place separately from efforts to form a constitutional council. Western diplomatic experts predicted that this discrepancy on the ground and political levels will continue until shortly before the 2021 presidential and parliamentary elections. Only then will the foreign influence on the ground be translated into the articles of the new Syrian constitution.
