North Korea's foreign currency reserves could dry up as early as 2023 due to economic sanctions mainly by the U.N. Security Council and the United States, according to analysis by sources close to three-way talks among Japan, the United States and South Korea, The Yomiuri Shimbun has learned. North Korea appears to be stepping up pressure on South Korea after a group of North Korean defectors in South Korea sent flyers north in late May criticizing Kim Jong Un, the chairman of the Workers' Party of Korea. The North appears to be growing impatient with its predicament.
--Predicament
Kim Yo Jong, Jong Un's younger sister and the first deputy director of the party made a statement on Saturday that included the phrase "hand over the power to act against the antagonistic action to the general staff office in military." Pyongyang has thus indicated that it is ready to take military action in connection with the distribution of leaflets.
North Korean defectors have engaged in leafleting campaigns since the mid-2000s. A source close to the three-way talks said, "North Korea's aim is to get South Korea to act as a mediator for the United States to lift sanctions against North Korea as soon as possible." On the surface, North Korea appears to be taking a strong stance in an effort not to reveal that the effects of sanctions are being felt.
Three U.N. Security Council resolutions were adopted from August to December 2017, banning North Korea from exporting coal, iron, iron ore, textiles and seafood -- thus depriving North Korea of 90% of its legitimate export earnings -- and forcing countries where North Korean workers had been employed to repatriate them by the end of 2019.
The sanctions decreased North Korea's foreign currency reserves, and its border with China was closed at the end of January following the spread of the new coronavirus. A source close to the three-way talks said, "Even in Pyongyang, the capital of the elite, distribution of supplies has been delayed."
--Unclear outlook
A South Korean government source said: "It is unclear whether U.S. President Donald Trump, with whom Kim Jong Un has deepened personal ties, will be reelected in the presidential election in November. The prospects for lifting the sanctions are also unclear, which must weigh heavily on Kim's mind."
China, which backs Pyongyang, is now in a difficult position to act as a mediator urging the United States to lift sanctions against North Korea, as China's own confrontation with the United States is intensifying.
According to a South Korean government source, North Korea hopes that the administration of President Moon Jae-in will resume inter-Korean economic cooperation projects in a tangible way, such as reviving the Mt. Kumgang tourism project and the Kaesong industrial complex.
If it is difficult to lift the sanctions, the source predicts, "North Korea will launch ballistic missiles and conduct a nuclear test to create a situation in which the next U.S. administration will give top priority to the North Korean issue."
--Moon's determination
At a meeting of senior secretaries held at the presidential Blue House in Seoul on Monday, Moon said, "I also regret [like Kim Jong Un does] that the relationships between North Korea and the U.S., and between the Koreas, did not develop as fully as expected. It is time for the two Koreas to find a breakthrough. I will continue efforts to obtain the consent of the international community." His remarks indicated his willingness to urge the United States to lift sanctions against North Korea after expressing his understanding of Kim Jong Un's dissatisfaction.
However, even if Moon tries to persuade Trump as North Korea wants, Trump and Moon are not expected to meet until September, when Moon is to attend a Group of Seven summit.
Moon aims to bring about a visit to Seoul by Chinese President Xi Jinping as soon as possible. The two countries have agreed to hold such a visit by the end of this year. Moon is reportedly looking for a way to break the deadlock.
He also said, "We can't just wait and see if the situation to improves. We should look for projects that can be decided on and promoted by the two Koreas themselves." He showed his determination to support North Korea on his own without U.S. approval in the end.
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