For all players participating in the FIFA World Cup in 2026, representing their countries at international football’s biggest tournament is an honour worthy of celebration. A select few, though, will be intent on winning individual recognition for their contributions this summer.
Arguably no prize awarded at the end of the World Cup receives more attention than the Golden Boot. And while many football fans might be speculating among friends over which player is best placed to finish as top scorer, others are looking at prediction markets news and analysis to get a wider consensus of who is expected to top the charts.
Here, users trade contracts against each other on yes-or-no questions, such as ‘Will player X win the Golden Boot?’ Because each contract results in a $1 payout if successful, that makes the buying price the perceived probability of an event happening.
As performances at the World Cup will dictate that chance of success, users will be able to see confidence in players rise and fall throughout the tournament. But it seems as though most traders believe a select few individuals are the ones to watch this summer.
Kylian Mbappé
He might still be 27 years old, but Kylian Mbappé is already approaching historic territory with regard to the World Cup. Having scored 12 goals across the 2018 and 2022 tournaments, he is just four strikes off tying the all-time record held by Miroslav Klose, and could be poised to overtake the German in North America.
To say Mbappé has form at the World Cup is an understatement. He managed eight goals in Qatar as he won the Golden Boot in 2022, and comes into this competition after scoring 42 goals in all competitions for Real Madrid in 2025/26. It’s little surprise, then, that prediction markets make him the favourite to finish as top scorer this summer at 16%.
Harry Kane
When it comes to players in form, though, nobody can match the numbers posted by Harry Kane in the most recent season. The Englishman managed 61 goals for Bayern Munich across all competitions, ending the campaign as the Golden Shoe winner, awarded to the leading goalscorer across European leagues.
England are expected to progress to the latter stages of the tournament, which will give Kane the best chance of winning a second World Cup Golden Boot of his career. Given a 13% chance of success on prediction markets, 2026 will likely be his last chance to win the prize, as he will not be at the peak of his powers when the 2030 tournament comes around.
Erling Haaland
Norway will be playing at the World Cup for the first time since 1998, and a big reason for that is because of their talisman. Erling Haaland, widely regarded as one of the best finishers in world football, managed 16 goals in qualifying as Ståle Solbakken’s side won all eight of their games.
Despite the Manchester City forward’s pedigree in front of goal, there are doubts over how far Norway might advance this summer, which means Haaland has only been given a 7% chance of winning the Golden Boot. However, a promising group stage could see that probability skyrocket.
Mikel Oyarzabal
Spain’s status as tournament favourites means that Mikel Oyarzabal certainly has a chance of finishing as the World Cup’s top scorer. The 29-year-old looks set to lead the line for Luis de la Fuente’s team, as Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams aim to put chances on a plate for him.
Given he was the joint-top scorer in qualifying for La Roja with six goals, traders believe there’s a 7% chance that Oyarzabal tops the goalscoring charts in North America. He isn’t considered to be on the same level as the likes of Haaland, Kane, or Mbappé, but starting for a leading contender gives him as much of a chance as the trio.
Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo outsiders for the Golden Boot
Outside of the quartet mentioned above, every other player is regarded as an outsider for the honor. The two men who lead the pack, Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo, are both believed to have a 5% chance of winning the Golden Boot, as they prepare for what will likely be their final World Cups.
The two men, playing at their sixth editions of the tournament, have dominated the world stage since emerging, but neither has managed to claim the Golden Boot prize. Messi came closest in 2022, as his tally of seven put him one goal behind Mbappé, while Ronaldo is still yet to score in the knockout rounds of the World Cup. Perhaps one of the two greats will get a fairy-tale ending to their international careers.
