Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football, where two of Indiana’s three all-time victories over Penn State have been by a matter of inches. Second Quarter: More Heisman Candidates, Not Less. Third Quarter: Finding a Way Back From the Wilderness. Fourth Quarter: Old Guard vs. Newbies in Major Showdowns.
First Quarter: Does the College Football Playoff Really Need More Teams?
All signs continue to point toward the College Football Playoff remaining at 12 teams for the 2026 season. The most recent information on that front comes from Mississippi State president Mark Keenum—an influential CEO in the SEC—who last week told ESPN’s Paul Finebaum that he’s “not very optimistic” that the tournament will expand to 16 teams for next year. The deadline for a format decision for ’26 is Dec. 1.
Dash reaction: Good, let the sport actually sit still at 12 for a few years (1).
After a decade of a four-team playoff, 12 was a good number in ’24. The format was tweaked for ’25 to remove the wonky conference champion rule that gave teams ranked ninth and 12th (Boise State and Arizona State) first-round byes while putting higher-seeded teams at a disadvantage. Problem solved. Let’s see the improved product roll out next month.
But college sports leaders, forever itchy to find the next buck by building a bigger bracket, have long had their eyes on a 16-team tournament in the future. The saving grace in forestalling that unnecessary expansion is a fundamental impasse between the Big Ten and everyone else (most notably the SEC) on how those 16 bids would be allotted.
The Big Ten wants multiple automatic bids, to the revulsion of those who would like to see them earned on the field of play. The SEC is O.K. with a single automatic bid for five conference champions—although Keenum (and before him commissioner Greg Sankey) has opined that there should be no automatic bids at all. This would effectively exclude anyone from outside the power conferences, which is a rich-get-richer idea.
If you want supporting evidence for why 12 is perfectly sufficient for now, simply look at the landscape as it currently stands. (In fact, you could argue that Dick van Patten had the right idea for this season—eight is enough.) Does anyone really believe a potential national champion could be left out of this year’s field?
Outside of a few teams, this is a scratch-and-dent collection of contenders (2).
Five members of The Dash’s current 12-team field (see below) have lost to a currently unranked opponent. Alabama lost to 4–5 Florida State; Texas Tech lost to 6–3 Arizona State; Texas lost to 3–6 Florida; Georgia Tech lost to 5–4 North Carolina State; and South Florida lost to 8–2 Memphis. There have been some dismal performances by highly ranked teams.
The Big 12 and mayhem-ridden ACC (3) are staggering toward one-bid league status. The American or the Sun Belt are likely to supply the Group of 6 conference champion (South Florida, Navy, Tulane, North Texas, James Madison). Notre Dame (4), despite two losses and a paucity of notable wins, is a win Saturday at Pittsburgh away from virtually locking up a spot. That leaves eight bids for the Big Ten and SEC to share. And if you can find more than eight championship contenders in those two leagues, you’re better (or more biased) than The Dash.
The Big Ten currently is a three-bid league (5), with Ohio State and Indiana positioned for top-four seeds and Oregon in contention to host a first-round game. After that it gets sketchy. USC (6) and Michigan (7) are the other two contenders, but either of them would have to win out, which would include a landmark victory in the final weeks—the Trojans winning at Oregon on Nov. 22 or the Wolverines taking down the Buckeyes on Nov. 29. (The latter is not inconceivable; we all remember the flag-plant-brawl-pepper spray of ’24.) USC would be ahead of Michigan in the pecking order, thanks to a head-to-head win last month.
If order is maintained in the Big Ten, that leaves five bids for the SEC (8)—a number even Sankey would have a hard time harrumphing about. As of today, Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia and Mississippi comprise the lead group in the league. Red River combatants Texas and Oklahoma could be duking it out for the fifth spot—although the path forward for both is perilous.
The Longhorns (7–2) play Georgia (8–1) between the hedges Saturday and close against undefeated A&M. The Sooners (7–2) are at Alabama (8–1) on Saturday before closing against a couple fading teams, Missouri and LSU. The margin between Texas and Oklahoma is slim, but The Dash leans toward the Longhorns based on a 17-point, head-to-head win on a neutral field.
If those two are bloodied down the stretch, is Vanderbilt (8–2) the next SEC team up? What a concept. The Commodores’ remaining games are against a revived Kentucky, winner of its last two, and nemesis/rival Tennessee, which has beaten Vandy six straight times by a minimum of 13 points.
When the dust settles, it will not be a shock to see at least one three-loss team in the field. And it will be hard to cry a river of tears for whoever is left out. The committee will not be committing a crime against football when it comes to excluding anyone.
It will be a compelling 12-team playoff. So will the ’26 version, if the game’s overlords let it happen that way. Three consecutive years of the same format isn’t too much to ask before scrambling everything again.
Is the Cupcake Path Being Rewarded?
The two teams that have the straightest, cleanest path to their respective conference championship games are Indiana (9) and Texas Tech (10). What do they have in common? They played nothing but lightweight opponents at home in non-league play.
The Hoosiers played Old Dominion, Kennesaw State and Indiana State, which have Sagarin ratings of 72nd, 112th and 204th, respectively. The Red Raiders’ slate was even worse, playing Arkansas-Pine Bluff (254th), Kent State (192nd) and Oregon State (124th).
Those soft launches paid dividends, allowing Indiana to work in transfer quarterback Fernando Mendoza and Texas Tech to coalesce a largely overhauled lineup. Both teams won a series of blowouts and ramped up for league play with sufficient confidence.
The penalty for scheduling light: nothing. Both are currently in the bracket with a high probability of remaining there.
The Hoosiers simply need to beat Wisconsin (3–6) at home and Purdue (2–8) on the road (with a lot of crimson in the stands) to lock up not just a playoff bid, but a likely bye, regardless of what would happen in the Big Ten title game. The Red Raiders play Central Florida (4–5) at home and West Virginia (4–6) to reach the Big 12 title game. While they would probably still need to win it to make the playoff, they will be heavily favored to do so.
In a season that began with a lot of squawking about strength of schedule, both Indiana and Texas Tech have gone light and prospered.
Dash College Football Playoff Bracket
This is how The Dash would seed the College Football Playoff if today was Selection Sunday:
Seeding
- Ohio State
- Indiana
- Texas A&M
- Alabama
- Georgia
- Texas Tech
- Oregon
- Mississippi
- Notre Dame
- Texas
- Georgia Tech
- South Florida
On the bubble
- Oklahoma
- Miami
- Vanderbilt
- USC
- Michigan
- Pittsburgh
- BYU
First-round games
- No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Georgia
- No. 11 Georgia Tech at No. 6 Texas Tech
- No. 10 Texas at No. 7 Oregon
- No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Mississippi
Quarterfinals
- Cotton Bowl: No. 4 Alabama vs. winner of No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Georgia
- Sugar Bowl: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. winner of No. 11 Georgia Tech at No. 6 Texas Tech
- Orange Bowl: No. 2 Indiana vs. winner of No. 10 Texas at No. 7 Oregon
- Rose Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State vs. winner of No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Mississippi
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Forde-Yard Dash: Why 12 Teams in the College Football Playoff Are Enough.
