Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football, where friends sometimes drag friends with them to jail. First Quarter: When Your Top Five Team Turns Into a Dumpster Fire. Second Quarter: Ultimate Carousel Chaos Theory. Third Quarter: Checking in on First-Year Coaches.
Fourth Quarter: The Previously Inconceivable Big Ten Showdown
When Indiana visits Oregon (31) for a game of profound importance Saturday, the sport will enter uncharted territory—they’ve rarely played each other, and never played a game that mattered. If you’re welcoming home someone who has been lost at sea for 13 months, caring about this matchup would not compute.
Prior to last year, the Ducks were not in the conference and the Hoosiers were not a serious football program. Now they’re both in the Big Ten and the top 10. They will meet for the first time in 21 years and just the fourth time ever, with the winner solidifying its position as the league’s most direct threat to Ohio State.
To add another layer of improbability, the two quarterbacks once met in a Pac-12 game (remember those?) while playing for two different schools. Low-level recruit Fernando Mendoza and California beat high-level recruit Dante Moore and UCLA, 33–7, in Pasadena on Nov. 25, 2023. It marked the last of the 94 times the Golden Bears and Bruins have played each other (but the Calimony is still flowing from L.A. to Berkeley).
Redshirt freshman Mendoza passed for 178 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions in that game, while true freshman Moore passed for 266 yards, one TD and two picks. Two years and a transfer later—Mendoza to Indiana, Moore to Oregon—they’re strong Heisman Trophy contenders. Positioning in that race (and even, potentially, in the NFL draft) is also at stake Saturday.
Indiana has won 16 out of 18 games under Curt Cignetti. Don’t bother looking for the last coach of the Hoosiers to do that well across an 18-game span; he doesn’t exist. The game in Eugene, Ore., could go a long way toward deciding if this is the greatest start for a coach we’ve ever seen.
Big statement, but consider the history Cignetti is flouting.
Meanwhile, Dan Lanning is making his own history at Oregon, where he’s won his first 11 Big Ten regular-season games. That’s still far behind Urban Meyer’s 30 straight to start his tenure at Ohio State, but Lanning won the Big Ten championship last year while Meyer’s first two Buckeyes teams did not—one was ineligible due to NCAA sanctions, and the other lost to Michigan State in the league title game.
The last coach to win the Big Ten outright in his first season in the league was Bennie Oosterbaan at Michigan in 1948. Bo Schembechler had a co-championship team that got the Rose Bowl bid in 1969, and Gary Moeller had a four-way tie at Michigan in ’90 that did not result in a Rose Bowl trip. So Lanning is in some rare company.
As for the game? Oregon has won 19 straight in Autzen Stadium and should be the biggest stress test Indiana has faced from a speed standpoint since the College Football Playoff loss to Notre Dame last year. But don’t expect the Hoosiers to be overmatched. This should be a 60-minute game in which Indiana at least covers the 7.5-point spread.
Dash pick: Oregon 27, Indiana 23.
Playoff Positioning: Are You in or Out?
Looking at six games that will propel the winner’s College Football Playoff hopes forward, while dealing a major blow to the loser.
Oklahoma-Texas (32)
When: 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday. Where: Dallas. Line: Texas by 2.5. Who needs it more: Texas, for obvious reasons.
The outlook on this game has taken a couple of sharp turns, first with Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer presumed out and now with Texas presumed comatose. There have been many occasions over the course of Red River history when one of these teams snapped out of a crisis to deliver an inspired performance in Dallas. Don’t be shocked if the Longhorns do exactly that, but they’ll have to find an offensive spark against the No. 1 defense in America. Texas had only 58 offensive snaps against Florida, and Oklahoma opponents are averaging only 55—the Horns have to figure out how to possess the ball longer than that.
Meanwhile, Mateer backup Michael Hawkins Jr. will have to block out the PTSD from starting as a freshman last year against Texas and being largely devoured. He was sacked five times and fumbled once in a 34–3 wipeout. Bottom line: The defenses will dominate this game.
Dash pick: Texas 17, Oklahoma 14.
Alabama-Missouri (33)
When: Noon ET Saturday. Where: Columbia, Mo. Line: Alabama by 2.5. Who needs it more: Alabama, which has good wins but also a two-touchdown loss on the résumé.
This is the last of undefeated Mizzou’s six straight home games to start the season, and the first five amounted to an extended prelude to this game. As if the Tigers needed one more scheduling favor leading into it, they’re coming off an open date while the Crimson Tide are facing a third ranked opponent in three games.
Missouri has been the most run-heavy team in the SEC, averaging 49 rushing attempts and 292 rushing yards per game, while the Alabama run defense is 13th in the league in yards allowed per game and 15th in yards allowed per play. But there is no doubt the Tide have been challenged more than the Tigers thus far this season, and could exploit the Mizzou pass defense.
Dash pick: Missouri 31, Alabama 28.
Michigan-USC (34)
When: 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday. Where: Los Angeles. Line: USC by 2.5. Who needs it more: USC, which has a league loss.
There are plenty of angles to this, with the most elemental being which lunch-pail running back has the better day—Michigan’s Justice Haynes (654 yards and eight touchdowns) or USC’s Waymond Jordan (537 yards and five touchdowns). But if all things are relatively equal on the ground, the difference-maker in this could be Trojans wide receiver and kick returner Makai Lemon, whose 153.8 all-purpose yards per game leads the Big Ten.
Add a squeeze of Lemon to a more experienced quarterback and home-field advantage, and the Trojans are in a better position
Dash pick: USC 30, Michigan 24.
Arizona State–Utah (35)
When: 10:15 p.m. ET Saturday. Where: Salt Lake City. Line: Utah by 5.5. Who needs it more: Utah, which has a league loss while Arizona State does not.
Big 12 After Dark serves up a juicy one between a pair of one-loss teams. The dominant ASU from the end of last season has been replaced by find-a-way ASU, winning both its league games by three points in the final minutes. Utah, meanwhile, has played no close games, win or lose. If you want a differentiating stat, try this: The Utes lead the Big 12 in third-down conversion percentage at 61.1, while the Sun Devils are last at 30.9.
Dash pick: Utah 23, Arizona State 21.
Ohio State–Illinois (36)
When: Noon ET Saturday. Where: Champaign, Ill. Line: Ohio State by 14.5. Who needs it more: Illinois, which has that 53-point nudging at the hands of Indiana on its résumé.
Florida at Texas A&M is probably the more compelling game, but this one matches a pair of ranked teams. The Buckeyes still have surrendered just two touchdowns this season, with a ridiculously tough red zone defense (zero TDs allowed in eight opponent trips inside the 20-yard line). Illinois has some big-play capability, and it will need to hit a few to find a way to keep this game close.
Dash pick: Ohio State 27, Illinois 10.
South Florida–North Texas (37)
When: 7:30 p.m. ET Friday. Where: Denton, Texas. Line: South Florida by 1.5. Who needs it more: South Florida, which is 4–1 and has to play Memphis during the regular season while the 5–0 Mean Green do not.
This is your Stealth Game of the Week, in the stealthy fun American. North Texas portal-ed in its defense with new coordinator Skyler Cassity, and the result has been a unit on pace for the fewest points allowed per game in 12 years. But the Bulls have certainly played the harder schedule to date.
Dash pick: South Florida 25, North Texas 21.
Coach Who Earned His Comp Car This Week
Tim Skipper (38), UCLA
As has been coldly pointed out on social media, the interim coach of the Bruins has equaled James Franklin’s career total victories against top 10 opponents. The shocking upset of Penn State was delirious for Skipper, brand-new offensive coordinator Jerry Neuheisel and all the Bruins.
Coach Who Should Take the Bus to Work
Fran Brown (39), Syracuse
Given the Orange’s season trajectory, quarterback Steve Angeli should win the Heisman. With him, Syracuse was 3–1 with a road victory over Clemson. Without him, Cuse has been blasted by Duke and SMU in succession, scoring a total of 21 points in those games. Backup QB Rickie Collins has thrown four interceptions in his two starts. Brown needs to get him coached up.
Point After
When thirsty in Birmingham, the hottest of football hotbeds, The Dash recommends a visit to On Tap Sports Cafe for game viewing, wing eating and beer drinking. Order an IPA from Good People Brewing (40) and thank The Dash later.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Forde-Yard Dash: The Stunning Big Ten Showdown Nobody Predicted.
